How do the Reds & Cards match up for 2011?

[Will M]

My unscientific take:

The Cards scare the hell out of me.

They may have compromised their defense with their offseason moves, but IMO the offensive upgrade is huge.

Last year, the Cards couldn't buy a hit from their weaker links in the lineup. For opposing pitchers, it was get through Pujols and Holiday and you were home free. Ryan, Lopez, Molina...easy pickings. Rasmus was the only other tough out and he had his ups and downs. IMO, that's one reason they couldn't beat the likes of Brewers, Cubs and even Pirates down the stretch.

Theriot and Berkman may be hacks in the field, but they are tough outs. They always make pitchers work. Freese or whoever plays 3B is an upgrade on Lopez.

Cards look like sure 90+ game winners unless someone important goes down. I just hope the REDS keep up with them.

I guess I am less impressed with the Cardinals 'offensive upgrade'.
To me Berkman looked old last year. Lots of guys in the pre PEDS era fell off a cliff at about age 33-35. Dale Murphy & Jim Rice come to mind. To me Berkman looks like a guy whose bat speed is much slower than in his prime. He is especially woeful against lefties (ops 517 in 2010 & 710 in 2009).

Ryan Theriot was not a good player last year. His OPS was 633. This looks to be on a downward trend (2008-745, 2009-712, 2010-633). To me he doesn't look like much of an upgrade (offensively or defensively).

[Will M]

Will, we are just going to have to agree to disagree on Votto vs. Pujols. Until Pujols proves that he can't do it anymore, I will always take Pujols. Pitchers pitch him completely different than any other hitter in the game, including Votto, Cabrerra, and Hamilton. Pujols is the only player in baseball that can demand a 30 million dollar contract and get it for a single year. While that really doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things, it just shows you how valuable of a player he is compared to everyone else. He is a better defensive player than Votto as well. Is range factor was off the charts last year compared to everyone else at that position. Until Pujols ends his streak of .300 avg, 30 hrs, and 100 RBI's, I'm still not going to put anyone above him. This is especially true in a contract year.



I understand what you are saying here but Molina had a down offensive year and both Ramon/Ryan had career offensive years. Isn't it reasonable to expect that Molina progresses to the means and that Ramon/Ryan regress to the means? I just don't think you can put a value on the ability to shut down the run game and the ability to handle a pitching staff. Both areas, Molina is superior to than Ryan/Ramon. I am still going to choose Molina.



The issue of Bruce being a 5.7 WAR player is one of the reasons why I have a problem with the whole WAR stat to begin with. Offensively, if you look at the stats, Bruce would match up more with Rasmus rather than Holliday. In fact, if you look at the 2010 stats Rasmus had a better OPB, SLG, OPS+, and OPS than Bruce did last year. They are essentially the same player on the offensive level. Yes, I understand Jay is a good defensive player. However, the Cardinals have induced the most ground balls in baseball for the past couple of years. They do not rely on their outfield defense as much as most clubs do. That is why I think you have to look at the players and compare it to the role that are used on their clubs. Obviously, the Reds would need great defense in the outfield due to GABP being almost a bam box. However, the Cardinals can suffer a bit on outfield defense because they are less reliant on that defense due to the ground ball factor and Busch Stadium being one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the game. If Colby Rasmus and Jay Bruce are essentially the same player, the Reds simply do not have a player in the outfield that can match up to Holliday. That is why I give the edge to the Cards in the outfield.



Just as you hold reservation about Berkman in the Cards outfield, I hold the same reservation for Rolen on the Reds. You simply cannot count on him being injury free this whole season. I just feel that is going to be a rotating position this year for the Reds. I also think there is much more upside with Freese. As you pointed out, he was a rookie last season. He is only going to get better, including that power you wanted to see.


I also understand people's reservation about Berkman. I share it. However, for me this is a low risk/high reward position for the Cardinals. The potential of Berkman in that lineup with Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, and Freese is too great to ignore. If the Berkman experiment fails, Jon Jay proved last year that he could hit well in front of Pujols. I'll just put it this way, Jon Jay wasn't the reason why the Cardinals failed last season. They failed because Shumaker, Brendan Ryan, and Lopez failed. Jon Jay had a great rookie season last year so I'm not afraid of what will happen if Berkman fails in RF.

Just a few numbers. The predictions for 2011 OPS are from fangraphs. They are the average of Bill James, Marcel & fans. For the most part they are similar although Ramon's slugging for 2011 had some variance.

Molina:
2008 OPS 740
2009 OPS 749
2010 OPS 671
2011 OPS 708 predicition

Hanigan:
2009 OPS 692
2010 OPS 834
2011 OPS 750 prediction

Hernandez:
2009 OPS 699
2010 OPS 792
2011 OPS 717 prediction

Ok. Molina is a great defensive catcher. IMO Hanigan is above average defensively & Ramon is average defensively. So you could argue that Molina's defense outweighs his weaker bat. Its tough to quantify. However, I think you are missing a key point. Molina can't catch every game. In fact his weak stick in 2010 could be due to the fact that the Cards started him in 135 games last year. Even if his stick rebounds the Cards will still start a replacement level catcher in ~27 games. Thats 17% of the season. Its why I think the Reds catchers are better than the Cards even if Molina rebounds a bit offensively & Hanigan/Hernnadez regress a bit offensively.

[Homer Bailey]

Will,

If you've got the opportunity, I wouldn't mind seeing a similar breakdown for the Brewers, or other NL central teams. Just a thought.

[Will M]

Will,

If you've got the opportunity, I wouldn't mind seeing a similar breakdown for the Brewers, or other NL central teams. Just a thought.

Thanks for the support!

I have been mulling both the Reds vs Cards and the Reds vs Brewers matchups for a while. The matchup vs the Brewers isn't as easy to do but I am planning to post something soon.

Maybe I'll look at the Cubs as well. It seems that the other two teams are well behind the best teams in the division.

[bucksfan2]

My thoughts on this matter.

I will take Pujols and its not even close. Votto had a Pujols type season last year but he hasn't done it over the course of 5 or so years. There lies the difference.

The Cards big 4: Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Holliday are tough to match. The Reds only have one player who fits into that mold right now and that is Votto. If your going by WAR Bruce may venture somewhere into that arena because of his defense. The issue I see with the Cards big four is they all could break down. Carpenter is an injury risk every season and Wainwright was sat down for the final few starts last season. If they can avoid the injury bug then they will be very tough.

The Cards advantage: 1b, LF, TOR Pitching
Reds Advantage: RF, 3b, 2b, MOR and BOR pitching, Depth
Push: SS, CF, C
Up in the air: Bullpen. Its just too variable year in year out to make a decision right now.

The reason the Cards could win the division is if Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia all start and pitch at a high level for 32 games. Berkman who I think will be an utter disaster in RF will have to show he can play in the OF and stay healthy. IMO if Berkman plays everyday in RF he will be limited to 100 games.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I guess I am less impressed with the Cardinals 'offensive upgrade'.
To me Berkman looked old last year. Lots of guys in the pre PEDS era fell off a cliff at about age 33-35. Dale Murphy & Jim Rice come to mind. To me Berkman looks like a guy whose bat speed is much slower than in his prime. He is especially woeful against lefties (ops 517 in 2010 & 710 in 2009).

Ryan Theriot was not a good player last year. His OPS was 633. This looks to be on a downward trend (2008-745, 2009-712, 2010-633). To me he doesn't look like much of an upgrade (offensively or defensively).

Very much THIS.

I firmly believe we should be much more concerned with the Brewers and Cubs than with the Cardinals. Sure, they've got 4 really good players...but this ain't basketball, you need more than that to be successful. The Cards as a whole are trending down, while the Brewers & Cubs seem to be moving in the opposite direction. (Brewcrew considerably moreso than the cubs to this point)

[Homer Bailey]

My thoughts on this matter.

I will take Pujols and its not even close. Votto had a Pujols type season last year but he hasn't done it over the course of 5 or so years. There lies the difference.

The fact that Votto hasn't done it over the last 5 years, and is trending upward is what makes me like Votto more, and the fact that Albert has done it over the last 5 years, and is more likely to be on the decline then on the rise, also contributes.

Just because someone has done it over the course of 5 years or so doesn't make him more likely to do it going forward.

[bucksfan2]

The fact that Votto hasn't done it over the last 5 years, and is trending upward is what makes me like Votto more, and the fact that Albert has done it over the last 5 years, and is more likely to be on the decline then on the rise, also contributes.

Just because someone has done it over the course of 5 years or so doesn't make him more likely to do it going forward.

Albert Pujols has been considered the best player in baseball over the past 5+ years. Votto is trending in the right direction but hasn't shown the consistency that Pujols has. To compare Votto and Pujols evenly speaks of homerism.

[Homer Bailey]

Albert Pujols has been considered the best player in baseball over the past 5+ years. Votto is trending in the right direction but hasn't shown the consistency that Pujols has. To compare Votto and Pujols evenly speaks of homerism.

No, it does not. I've made fair points about their projections going forward, and you just keep talking about the past. I'm not here to talk about the past.

[medford]

My thoughts on this matter.

I will take Pujols and its not even close. Votto had a Pujols type season last year but he hasn't done it over the course of 5 or so years. There lies the difference.

I guess the question lies, at what point do you take the leap and assume that Joey isn't a 1 year wonder? Do you wait until he puts together 3, 4, 5 seasons of similar stats (keeping in mind, that despite the issues he had 2 seasons ago, he still put up great offensive numbers)? Similarly, at what point do you take the leap that Pujols best days are behind him, that he's begining the natural decline that most players see in the mid 30s?

I get what you're saying, and I'm not assuming that Albert will be any less the monster he's been at the plate this year, as he's been at the past. However, I remember Jr coming to town, and despite a solid 1st season in Cincy, he didn't quite put up the numbers that he had the previous 5 seasons. Many said "he's junior, he's done it forever, you can count on him" as the injuries and age took their tole, as his bat slowed down a bit, as he had to begin cheating on fastballs, etc..

I think what Will is saying, and what I agree with, is that this comparision has more to do w/ Joey than it does w/ Albert. I think if the comparision was Bruce and Albert's offensive numbers, than I think there'd be a ton more hesitation, Albert's offensive output is what we all hoped for from Bruce, what his success coming thru the minors hinted that he may be capable of one day. However, despite some solid stretches and a great closing 2 months at the end of last year, Jay hasn't put up the numbers to indicate that he will definently take the jump to MVP contender. There is still that hope, and perhaps those 2 months at the end of last year are the spring board to the career we all hoped for, but its far too early to know for sure.

Joey on the other hand, has proven his worth the last 2 years. He's won the MVP in a runaway, and frankly I see no reason to believe its a fluke. He hasn't done over a decade the way that Albert has, but he's shown me enough, both in results and approach at the plate, to make me believe he'll be an regular MVP contender over the next 5-6 seasons. There is nothing that screams fluke, or small sample size to me w/ Joey. I have no doubts that Albert will continue to be a great player, even albert at 80% of what he's been over the last 5 years is still a great player. However, I also believe that Joey will be right there with him. He hasn't done it over the extended period that Pujols has, but at some point you've got to take the leap that he'll continue to produce like he has the last couple of seasons.

I guess the beauty, is that we all start finding out in a little over a month if we're right or wrong.

[Edd Roush]

Very much THIS.

I firmly believe we should be much more concerned with the Brewers and Cubs than with the Cardinals. Sure, they've got 4 really good players...but this ain't basketball, you need more than that to be successful. The Cards as a whole are trending down, while the Brewers & Cubs seem to be moving in the opposite direction. (Brewcrew considerably moreso than the cubs to this point)

Sir Charles, I usually agree with most of what you post, but IMO there is no way the Cubs have a better record than the Cards this year unless the Cards are rought with major injuries and the Cubs stay 100% healthy. If we were to do this comparison between the Cubs and Cards, I think the Cubs might only win SS and maybe RF. Like the CAIRO projections, I see the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals battling it out for the top three spots and then about a 10-12 win gap and then there is the Cubs and then a 10-12 win gap and there is the Astros and then the Pirates are battling to win 63 games (or not lose 100 games).

[Quatitos]

I understand what you are saying here but Molina had a down offensive year and both Ramon/Ryan had career offensive years. Isn't it reasonable to expect that Molina progresses to the means and that Ramon/Ryan regress to the means? I just don't think you can put a value on the ability to shut down the run game and the ability to handle a pitching staff. Both areas, Molina is superior to than Ryan/Ramon. I am still going to choose Molina.

Agreed that all of the players will probably not produce as bad/good as they did last year, but even with that it is probably safe to say that both Ramon/Ryan will outproduce Molina. For sake of argument lets consider Bill James' projections for the three.

Ramon Hernandez: .264/.330/.400/.730 with .320 wOBA
Ryan Hanigan: .281/.370/.377/.747 with .337 wOBA
Yadier Molina: .272/.339/.361/.700 with .311 wOBA

I mean not a huge difference but you will be getting around ~150 games from Hernandez/Hanigan and ~130 from Molina, with a drop off to a guy like Gerald Laird for the other games. I also think with that playing 136 games in '09 and 130 in '10 could have played a large part in Molina's decline at the plate last year, and that if it keeps up, his '10 numbers possibly more indicative of what he will put up going forward instead of his '08-'09 numbers.

As for controlling the running game, it is hard to put a value on it, but it is easier to compare how well teams control the running game. The hard part comes in that teams who control the run game well will not have many people run on them, and when they do they will probably be above average baserunners. So it is a bit unfair to compare a team like the Cardinals who only allowed 53 SB to a team like the tigers who allowed 101, even though the tigers caught 50 runners to the Cardinals 38. But for comparing the Reds and Cardinals, it is probably a bit easier to compare since the difference is 53 to 71, much closer.

Now to compare how well the running game is "controlled" I feel that you should also consider the number of passed balls that the catchers gave up. I'll consider the number of advancements allowed as SB+PB, and see the ratio of advancements allowed to the number of runners caught stealing. Not surprisingly, the Cardinals ranked first in this with a 1.658:1 ratio, largely in part due to Molina's good defense. Surprisingly though, the Reds ranked second (NL and AL included) with a 2.206:1 ratio. Obviously this number doesn't tell everything about how well the running game is controlled, but I think it along with the third lowest number of advancements allowed illustrates that the Reds are an above average team at controlling the run game as well.

Team		SB	SB+PB	CS	(SB+PB)/CS	PB
Cardinals	53	63	38	1.658		10
Reds		71	75	34	2.206		4
Rockies		81	96	43	2.233		15
Tigers		101	112	50	2.240		11
Blue Jays	69	79	35	2.257		10
Astros		89	101	44	2.295		12
Indians		125	136	58	2.345		11
Mets		51	61	26	2.346		10
Padres		79	92	39	2.359		13
Nationals	79	84	35	2.400		5
Twins		82	90	37	2.432		8
Braves		102	108	44	2.455		6
Giants		115	121	49	2.469		6
Dodgers		97	103	39	2.641		6
Royals		137	148	55	2.691		11
Marlins		111	122	44	2.773		11
White Sox	105	109	39	2.795		4
Phillies	84	90	31	2.903		6
Athletics	88	96	32	3.000		8
Mariners	73	89	29	3.069		16
Orioles		83	86	27	3.185		3
Rays		89	98	30	3.267		9
Brewers		100	105	31	3.387		5
Rangers		116	124	35	3.543		8
Diamondbacks	115	130	36	3.611		15
Angels		133	149	41	3.634		16
Cubs		114	120	31	3.871		6
Pirates		116	127	32	3.969		11
Red Sox		169	183	42	4.357		14
Yankees		132	144	23	6.261		12

As for how well a pitching staff is handled is very tricky to figure out. How much credit do you give to the catcher and how much credit do you give to the pitcher? There aren't really many stats to measure this by aside from catcher's ERA, and based on that Hanigan is roughly equal to Molina and both do better than Hernandez.

Considering the positives and negatives for both sides, I would honestly have to say that it is about even at the catcher position assuming the players regress more towards their career averages offensively.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Sir Charles, I usually agree with most of what you post, but IMO there is no way the Cubs have a better record than the Cards this year unless the Cards are rought with major injuries and the Cubs stay 100% healthy. If we were to do this comparison between the Cubs and Cards, I think the Cubs might only win SS and maybe RF. Like the CAIRO projections, I see the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals battling it out for the top three spots and then about a 10-12 win gap and then there is the Cubs and then a 10-12 win gap and there is the Astros and then the Pirates are battling to win 63 games (or not lose 100 games).

Well, the way I'm looking at it is that I firmly believe that the Cards OVER-performed last season. Obviously those main 4 cogs performed as expected, but many others played above their heads IMO. And with the changes that they've made I also believe have made them a worse team. Both offensively AND defensively. I don't think there's a chance in heck that their bullpen can repeat the performance they had last year.

As for the Cubs, I feel that they drastically UNDER-performed last year. Ramirez, Lee, Soriano & Soto all had down years. They've replaced the aging Lee with Carlos Pena. Pena should get a bump from playing in Chicago AND in the NL. And if the other guys rebound back to their norms, the Cubs should see a huge upswing on offense. As for pitching, they've lost Lily & Gorzelany but added Matt Garza and Zambrano back to the role of starter full-time. Garza never really had a great record in the AL but his secondary stats have always looked decent. Move him to the NL and he should see a considerable bump. So for me, the question mark for their rotation is Zambrano. If he returns to even CLOSE to his old self, they're going to be a force. The pen...anchored by Marmol, added Wood to a pretty decent pen.

I don't think the Cubs are in the same class as the Reds or Brewers, but I do think they're as good as, if not better than, the Cardinals. But it's just my opinion...so take it for what it's worth. :O)

[medford]

[QUOTE=_Sir_Charles_;2324479]
As for the Cubs, I feel that they drastically UNDER-performed last year. QUOTE]

Groundhog day was a couple of weeks ago.

[medford]

sorry, double post