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Thread: Spring Training Predictions

  1. #1
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Spring Training Predictions

    With Spring training set to start tomorrow lets get some predictions going. Lets try and make them surprising but possible. Here are a couple of mine:

    - Mesoraco almost forces his way onto the big league club. I see Mesoraco in a similar situation as Posey last year. Good enough to head north/east with the club but starts the season in AAA.

    - Valakia makes the club as a utility INF and Cairo is cut.

    - Todd Frazier wins the LF platoon job with Lewis, Gomes is traded.

    - Willis wins the LH bullpen slot, Chapman is sent to AAA to be a starter.

    Surprises: Willis, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hamilton
    Disappointments: Alonso, Francisco, and Gomes

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  3. #2
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Leake sent to minors, vows to prove management wrong.

    Trade rumors swirl during ST about Bailey, nothing happens and he breaks camp as #4 starter. Because he's out of options he's the #4 instead of the team's #5 starter, Travis Wood.

    Danny Dorn OPS's .950+ in ST and is eventually traded to the (Insert team name here).

    Janish, afraid to relax in ST posts the same numbers he did last ST, except this time getting the majority of starts at SS.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #3
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Weird. I nearly started a thread with the same exact title just a few hours ago and decided to wait until tonight to do it. No need to now.

    I agree with you on Mesoraco. I think he has a big spring and nearly forces his way onto the Opening Day roster.

    Donnie Joseph has a great spring but in the end is one of the last players cut due to the Reds having an abundance of lefties in the pen (Bray, Chapman, Willis).

    David Sappelt has an impressive spring. The only question is whether the Reds will deal Gomes to make room for him. My guess is no since the Reds seem to be in love with him.

    Travis Wood and Homer Bailey win the 4th and 5th starter spots with Mike Leake going to Louisville to pitch every fifth day. I really like Leake a lot but I think Wood deserves to be in the rotation and he's more prepared to pitch a full season right now and I think Bailey is primed for a breakout. Leake will see plenty of time in Cincy this season though.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #4
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    I'd love to see Todd Frazier take Miguel Cairo's job.

    Not much of a chance of that happening but I hope it does.

  6. #5
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Saw a couple pictures of Billy Hamilton. I bet he forces his way up to high-A to start the season. Just have a feeling he's going to come on quickly.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    I don't see any big surprises:

    - Bailey and Wood make the rotation
    - Leake to AAA
    - Reds start the season without a lefty on the bench (other than Lewis)
    - Arredondo makes the club
    - Janish has a good spring and puts an Renteria rumors to rest
    - Final bullpen battles are between Ondrusek vs. Burton (for RH middle relief) and Smith vs. LeCure (for long man)
    - Sappelt makes a really good impression and the Heisey trade rumors start up
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Saw a couple pictures of Billy Hamilton. I bet he forces his way up to high-A to start the season. Just have a feeling he's going to come on quickly.
    I don't see this happening. The Reds have been pretty good about getting all of their guys a year in Dayton, especially kids drafted out of high school, to keep the Dayton management happy and for the players to experience a special minor league environment. The Dragons are much more likely to be a winning ballclub than the Blaze and while Billy is certainly a promising prospect, there is no reason to absolutely skip a level that most players enjoy playing at.

    As for my own Spring Training Predictions, I hope and I am also pretty sure Walt won't make any snap judgments on a small sample size.

    I look for Bailey and Wood to round out the rotation. Leake will be upset he will be sent to AAA, but he will see time when a starter is put on the DL.
    I think one of the biggest battles this Spring Training is between Hermida and Heisey for the fifth outfield spot. If Hermida can show the ability to play centerfield in spring training and hits a little bit, I can see Walt bringing him up the big club so we have a lefty on the bench against a right-handed starter.
    I also see a pretty big battle for the last two spots in the bullpen between Burton, Arredondo, LeCure, Smith and Willis. I see Burton and Arredondo coming out on top.
    I also see Walt sticking with Janish as his Opening Day starting shortstop unless Janish gets hurt during Spring Training.
    The number one goal of Spring Training is to get the guys playing as a team and hope for as few injuries as possible.

    I can't wait to follow some of the younger guys in these Spring Training games and see how they can do against major league talent. I'm particularly looking forward to seeing Mesoraco, Frazier, Alonso and Francisco as those guys could make a major impact in 2011 in the case of an injury.

    I hope those of you calling for a Posey-like 2011 out of Mesoraco are correct. An All-Star catcher would certainly be a major shot in the arm down the stretch.

  9. #8
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    I don't quite see the Mesoraco-Posey thing. People often make the mistake of thinking the last-big-thing will come again. I don't think Mes has the overall polish Posey did. But I do think Mes will open some eyes with his bat, primarily his power.

    I think Alonso will settle down and hit better than he ever has in a big league environment. If nothing else, he's due.

    In general, I think it will be a good camp for those guys getting ready to repeat a full year in AAA.

    Willis will start great, but fade.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #9
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    I don't expect Mes to be Posey good. Just expect Mes to play well enough to force himself onto the Reds earlier rather than later this season. Just see some parallels between Posey/Mes and Molina/Hernandez.

  11. #10
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Mes has the ability to force his way up here and be the everyday catcher by July.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  12. #11
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Mes has the ability to force his way up here and be the everyday catcher by July.
    Can't see it. 2012 is his time, IMO.

  13. #12
    Member dunner13's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    I think Janish will struggle to hit in spring and renteria will end up getting the opening day start although the reds will say its split playing time, but after a few weeks renteria will get the majority of the starts.

    Hermedia will have a huge spring and many will be pushing for him to win the LF job.

    Mes will have a very nice spring but will be sent down until ramon gets hurt in june.

    Chapman will absolutely dominate and make everyone wish coco would retire, and follow in the footsteps of Gil Meche by giving his money back because he didn't earn it.

  14. #13
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    just tossing this out there... Janish ST 2010 numbers:

    Code:
    PLAYER         AVG   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI         
    ------         ---   -  --   -   -  -- -- -- -- ---         
    P Janish      .350  20  40   4  14  23  3  0  2   9
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #14
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    With Spring training set to start tomorrow lets get some predictions going. Lets try and make them surprising but possible. Here are a couple of mine:

    - Mesoraco almost forces his way onto the big league club. I see Mesoraco in a similar situation as Posey last year. Good enough to head north/east with the club but starts the season in AAA.

    - Valakia makes the club as a utility INF and Cairo is cut.

    - Todd Frazier wins the LF platoon job with Lewis, Gomes is traded.

    - Willis wins the LH bullpen slot, Chapman is sent to AAA to be a starter.


    Surprises: Willis, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hamilton
    Disappointments: Alonso, Francisco, and Gomes
    I like all of that and I hope you're right. I'm skeptical, but I again I really hope you're right.

  16. #15
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Spring Training Predictions

    Didn't the Reds give Cairo a two year deal?


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