Fangraphs Reds top 10 prospects

[OnBaseMachine]

1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Devin Mesoraco
3. Billy Hamilton
4. Yasmani Grandal
5. Yonder Alonso
6. Yorman Rodriguez
7. Kyle Lotzkar
8. Zack Cozart
9. Juan Francisco
10. Drew Cisco

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ncinnati-reds/

[Benihana]

10. Drew Cisco

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ncinnati-reds/

A HS Pitcher drafted in the 6th round that has yet to throw a professional pitch? Wow.

I know he slipped due to signability and is reportedly well polished for a high schooler, but it is surprising to see a guy liked him ranked so highly before throwing a single pitch.

[corkedbat]

A HS Pitcher drafted in the 6th round that has yet to throw a professional pitch? Wow.

I know he slipped due to signability and is reportedly well polished for a high schooler, but it is surprising to see a guy liked him ranked so highly before throwing a single pitch.

My thoughts too. I hope Drew is the real deal and all that, but 10th? Just off the top of my head, I don't see how you can list him above Guillon (among several others at this point).

[RedsManRick]

I was surprised too and posted as such. But prospect mavens get more from touting a prospect others aren't talking about than they lose by leaving off a struggling guy like Frazier or relatively low ceiling guy like Joseph.

[Benihana]

Cisco strikes me as a lower ceiling guy too. Kind of like a middle class version of Mike Leake.

Guillon definitely seems to have a higher ceiling.

[mace]

Whether you agree with this list or not, it seems pretty dang impressive that the organization can have guys like Frazier, Sappelt, Joseph, Guillon, Correa, Torreyes and Arias who aren't even on it.

I don't follow the entire minor leagues like a lot of you guys do. So, can somebody tell me this: Are the Reds uncommonly strong in the area of, say, the second 10? Speaking without context, it certainly seems so.

[Scrap Irony]

They are, mace, and have been for a few years now. Those cheap, slightly better than replacement level players Cincinnati brought up last season were largely the reason they won the NL Central crown. This year, it looks to be more of the same.

As to the list, either the guy that wrote it got lazy and simply found a name he liked in the draft, or he wanted some buzz about his list. Either way, putting Cisco in the top ten at this point is moronic. There are literally fifteen (at least) prospects who profile better, with higher floors and/ or higher ceilings.

The rest of the list is solid, too, though his write-ups are really weak, statistically-speaking. He writes as if he's a scout and bases almost all of his rankings on said scouting "reports". The problems with this are two-fold:
1) Players improve or devolve into poor habits as the season wears on, but scouts miss it because they're scouting other people. For example, his write-up of Hamilton's spread-eagle attack in the batter's box was obviously a mid-season take, as Hamilton moved his front foot in the last month to six weeks of the Billings season. His "power" (such as it is) blossomed a bit after that.
2) Scouting is almost entirely subjective and leads to impressions, which, in turn, lead to declarations, which, in turn, are taken as gospel on sites like this one.

A balance of both statistics and scouting would be much more likely to be effective, as it leads to a type of "proof".