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Thread: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

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    Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/

    7.Aroldis Chapman
    50.Billy Hamilton
    64.Devin Mesoraco
    73.Yonder Alonso

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Looks like they are overestimating Hamilton and underestimating Mesoraco and Alonso.

    Mesoraco isn't even in their top 5 catching prospects. I guess they didn't believe last year was legit.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Worst part is, it seems they are lowering Alonso because of Votto. Talked about it in the chat. That is something I never believe in. He isn't any different of a player because he is blocked. If he were traded tomorrow to Colorado, would be be any better than he is right now? Of course not.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Worst part is, it seems they are lowering Alonso because of Votto. Talked about it in the chat. That is something I never believe in. He isn't any different of a player because he is blocked. If he were traded tomorrow to Colorado, would be be any better than he is right now? Of course not.
    Kind of agree, but the fact that he is blocked lowers his value. He has less value to the Reds if they can't use him and less value as a trade chip if he's blocked and everyone knows it. The issue lowering his value is really his lack of positional versatility and the fact that he'd need to project as an elite hitter to be viewed much more than an interchangeable part. Teams know it and any return in a deal will reflect it.

    If the LF thing works out, his value will skyrocket.
    Last edited by mth123; 02-23-2011 at 07:44 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Can't believe there was no mention of Yorman even in the chat. If Hamilton is #50, Y-Rod needs to at least be mentioned in the conversation for the Top 100.

    Mesoraco should be higher, but BA (like me) doesn't like to admit mistakes.

    Other than that, I have no major problems. Grandal as a fringe Top 100 guy and Alonso at 73 sound about right to me- at least so far. Like mth said, if the LF thing works, it will be another story.
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Worst part is, it seems they are lowering Alonso because of Votto. Talked about it in the chat. That is something I never believe in. He isn't any different of a player because he is blocked. If he were traded tomorrow to Colorado, would be be any better than he is right now? Of course not.
    How much of it is because he is blocked by Votto and how much of it is because 1B is such a deep position league wide? I think the overall depth of the position hurts Alonso's value because frankly there just aren't a ton of teams looking to upgrade their 1B position and the lack of trade partners certainly impacts trade value.

    As an aside I think Chapman is too low at 7. I can see the argument for taking Harper or Trout over him but outside of those two there isn't a single prospect on the list that I'd trade Chapman to get.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Kind of agree, but the fact that he is blocked lowers his value. He has less value to the Reds if they can't use him and less value as a trade chip if he's blocked and everyone knows it. The issue lowering his value is really his lack of positional versatility and the fact that he'd need to project as an elite hitter to be viewed much more than an interchangeable part. Teams know it and any return in a deal will reflect it.

    If the LF thing works out, his value will skyrocket.
    A prospects value should be on what they could do as a major leaguer, not their trade value. He either is a major leaguers of X value right now or he isn't. The fact that he is blocked doesn't change his current ability or future ability to be a major league hitter.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    A prospects value should be on what they could do as a major leaguer, not their trade value. He either is a major leaguers of X value right now or he isn't. The fact that he is blocked doesn't change his current ability or future ability to be a major league hitter.
    This is where we disagree. His value is based on how much he can contribute to his team winning. That doesn't make a poor player with a wide open position ahead of him a good prospect, but a guy like Alonso just doesn't have value to his team if he can't help them win on the field or be converted into some one else who could help. Isn't a player's value based on his ability to get on the field and perform? Alonso's lack of versatility is a huge obstacle to that and his bat hasn't shown enough yet to push the current player off the position. The fact that the guy is Joey Votto makes it tougher, but has Alonso done enough yet to suggest he could push Lyle Overbay or Adam Laroche off of 1B in another organization? I think Alonso can hit some. Pretty much every 1B can and a lot of minor leaguers who will be 1B can as well. I haven't seen the whole list yet, but I'd guess there are 6 or 7 1B ranked ahead of Alonso on the list (Belt, Freeman, Montero, Hosmer, Singleton, maybe Rizzo or Carter?). Add the established major leaguers to the mix and I have to wonder if Alonso is one of the 30 best 1B overall in the next few years. Thankfully, the DH Position expands the number of jobs available, but Alonso doesn't seem to be anythng speclal. Add some versatility to get him in the line-up more or have a monster year to nudge past the others and he'd move up. Its not like ranking him 73rd overall is an insult. But right now he's a blocked prospect. The fact that its Votto doing the blocking magnifies it, but he'd be blocked in most places.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    This is where we disagree. His value is based on how much he can contribute to his team winning. That doesn't make a poor player with a wide open position ahead of him a good prospect, but a guy like Alonso just doesn't have value to his team if he can't help them win on the field or be converted into some one else who could help. Isn't a player's value based on his ability to get on the field and perform? Alonso's lack of versatility is a huge obstacle to that and his bat hasn't shown enough yet to push the current player off the position. The fact that the guy is Joey Votto makes it tougher, but has Alonso done enough yet to suggest he could push Lyle Overbay or Adam Laroche off of 1B in another organization? I think Alonso can hit some. Pretty much every 1B can and a lot of minor leaguers who will be 1B can as well. I haven't seen the whole list yet, but I'd guess there are 6 or 7 1B ranked ahead of Alonso on the list (Belt, Freeman, Montero, Hosmer, Singleton, maybe Rizzo or Carter?). Add the established major leaguers to the mix and I have to wonder if Alonso is one of the 30 best 1B overall in the next few years. Thankfully, the DH Position expands the number of jobs available, but Alonso doesn't seem to be anythng speclal. Add some versatility to get him in the line-up more or have a monster year to nudge past the others and he'd move up. Its not like ranking him 73rd overall is an insult. But right now he's a blocked prospect. The fact that its Votto doing the blocking magnifies it, but he'd be blocked in most places.
    Sorry, but this is just wrong. A players value is and should be based on what he could do if given the opportunity to play. Either he is capable of producing X/Y/Z or he isn't. Being stuck behind someone else doesn't change that.

    As for Alonso himself, take out the year from the time he broke his hamate and the guy has absolutely obliterated the baseball to the tune of .327/.404/.549 since being drafted. If he didn't get hurt, he would be a top 20 prospect right now. He did get hurt though and like everyone who has a hamate injury, they suffer through the struggles to hit for about a year afterwards. He is going to be a very good hitter in the major leagues when he gets the chance.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    A prospects value should be on what they could do as a major leaguer, not their trade value. He either is a major leaguers of X value right now or he isn't. The fact that he is blocked doesn't change his current ability or future ability to be a major league hitter.
    Disagree. You value a prospect not by what he could do, but what he could/will/might do when compared to others at his position.

    When comparing Alonso's ceiling, floor, and likely production with with the 1B already in the major leagues, in the high minors who're likely to be in the league with him, or the "value" of said prospects below him, Alonso should be negged a bit for Votto's performance. It affects his "value" to the Reds (as a trade piece and as a major leaguer) and as a 1B overall.
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Doug's right. I don't read BA's top-100 list to find out who's blocked. I don't need a scout for that, I can read a roster. I want to know how a prospect compares to a hypothetical standard for his position.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Disagree. You value a prospect not by what he could do, but what he could/will/might do when compared to others at his position.

    When comparing Alonso's ceiling, floor, and likely production with with the 1B already in the major leagues, in the high minors who're likely to be in the league with him, or the "value" of said prospects below him, Alonso should be negged a bit for Votto's performance. It affects his "value" to the Reds (as a trade piece and as a major leaguer) and as a 1B overall.
    I think you're confusing trade value and prospect rankings. Yes, first basemen, even good ones, lack the type of trade value they would have if they had the same offensive numbers at another position. But when you do prospect rankings you're rating that player's ability to excel at his position in the majors, not his trade value.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Disagree. You value a prospect not by what he could do, but what he could/will/might do when compared to others at his position.

    When comparing Alonso's ceiling, floor, and likely production with with the 1B already in the major leagues, in the high minors who're likely to be in the league with him, or the "value" of said prospects below him, Alonso should be negged a bit for Votto's performance. It affects his "value" to the Reds (as a trade piece and as a major leaguer) and as a 1B overall.
    Sure, Joey Votto raises the "needed performance" bar a tad, but if Alonso were a Rockie Joey Votto would still do that. But, from what I can gather, if Alonso were a Rockie, his ranking would have been higher than it was because he is a Red and blocked. IMO, that isn't the correct way to look at things at all. I want to know who will be better between player A and player B if both are given the same chances.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    When I look at a prospect list I want to learn who the future stars are going to be. I don't think a player's talent level is reduced because he is blocked by a star player on the major league team. I think most of the published lists are based on a player's talent and skills -- not on their trade value.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    OK. Lets forget about Alonso being blocked specifically in Cincy. How does he rank in the pecking order of 1B overall (since at this point its all we know he can do)? How high would he have to be to be valuable and not simply an interchangeable part? He's ranked #73. That seems to be saying he has some value IMO. Below is a list of 70 guys who will probably play some 1B in the major leagues over the next 5 years (hastily put together so lets not quibble over the order too much). The list excludes Alonso. Where would he rank? Remember that 1B is a position where bats go to finsih their careers so this list could exclude lots of guys who may also be ahead of Yonder. Guys like Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Guillen, Casey McGeehee, Ryan Braun and young guys like Nick Weglarz, Josh Vitters and Pedro Alvarez may also be raising the bar on this list.

    1 Albert Pujols
    2 Adrian Gonzalez
    3 Joey Votto
    4 Miguel Cabrera
    5 Mark Texiera
    6 Prince Fielder
    7 Ryan Howard
    8 Kendry Morales
    9 Justin Morneau
    10 Billy Butler
    11 Ike Davis
    12 Carlos Lee
    13 Eric Hosmer
    14 Brandon Belt
    15 Audrey Huff
    16 Gaby Sanchez
    17 Carlos Pena
    18 Freddie Freeman
    19 Adam Lind
    20 Jesus Montero
    21 Matt Laporta
    22 Justin Smoak
    23 Derek Norris
    24 Logan Morrison
    25 Chris Carter
    26 Mike Napoli
    27 Adam Laroche
    28 Anthony Rizzo
    29 Dayan Viciedo
    30 Daric Barton
    31 Jonathon Singleton
    32 Mitch Moreland
    33 Brett Wallace
    34 Kyle Blanks
    35 Juan Francisco
    36 Bobby Borchering
    37 Kila Kalahuie
    38 Brad Hawpe
    39 Russell Branyan
    40 Lyle Overbay
    41 Xavier Nady
    42 James Loney
    43 Matt Gamel
    44 Andrew Lambo
    45 Dan Johnson
    46 Brandon Allen
    47 Chris Davis
    48 Lars Anderson
    49 Nolan Arenado
    50 Edwin Encarnacion
    51 Mike Morse
    52 Lucus Duda
    53 Jake Fox
    54 Juan Miranda
    55 Paul Goldschmidt
    56 Leslie Anderson
    57 Casey Kotchman
    58 Chris Marrero
    59 Mark Trumbo
    60 Brandon Snyder
    61 Ryan Strieby
    62 Neftali Soto
    63 Pablo Sandoval
    64 Lance Berkman
    65 Kevin Youkilis
    66 Paul Konerko
    67 Adam Dunn
    68 Luke Scott
    69 Todd Helton
    70 Derek Lee

    Note: I've put guys who will probably fade away in a couple years or stick to DH or another spot at the bottom when they obviously should be much higher. Remember this is about the future.
    Last edited by mth123; 02-26-2011 at 01:54 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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