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Thread: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    OK. Lets forget about Alonso being blocked specifically in Cincy. How does he rank in the pecking order of 1B overall (since at this point its all we know he can do)? How high would he have to be to be valuable and not simply an interchangeable part? He's ranked #73. That seems to be saying he has some value IMO. Below is a list of 70 guys who will probably play some 1B in the major leagues over the next 5 years (hastily put together so lets not quibble over the order too much). The list excludes Alonso. Where would he rank? Remember that 1B is a position where bats go to finsih their careers so this list could exclude lots of guys who may also be ahead of Yonder. Guys like Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Guillen, Casey McGeehee, Ryan Braun and young guys like Nick Weglarz, Josh Vitters and Pedro Alvarez may also be raising the bar on this list.

    1 Albert Pujols
    2 Adrian Gonzalez
    3 Joey Votto
    4 Miguel Cabrera
    5 Mark Texiera
    6 Prince Fielder
    7 Ryan Howard
    8 Kendry Morales
    9 Justin Morneau

    10 Billy Butler
    11 Ike Davis
    12 Carlos Lee
    13 Eric Hosmer
    14 Brandon Belt
    15 Audrey Huff
    16 Gaby Sanchez
    17 Carlos Pena
    18 Freddie Freeman
    19 Adam Lind
    20 Jesus Montero
    21 Matt Laporta
    22 Justin Smoak
    23 Derek Norris
    24 Logan Morrison
    25 Chris Carter
    26 Mike Napoli
    27 Adam Laroche
    28 Anthony Rizzo
    29 Dayan Viciedo
    30 Daric Barton
    31 Jonathon Singleton
    32 Mitch Moreland
    33 Brett Wallace
    34 Kyle Blanks
    35 Juan Francisco
    36 Bobby Borchering
    37 Kila Kalahuie
    38 Brad Hawpe
    39 Russell Branyan
    40 Lyle Overbay
    41 Xavier Nady
    42 James Loney
    43 Matt Gamel
    44 Andrew Lambo
    45 Dan Johnson
    46 Brandon Allen
    47 Chris Davis
    48 Lars Anderson
    49 Nolan Arenado
    50 Edwin Encarnacion
    51 Mike Morse
    52 Lucus Duda
    53 Jake Fox
    54 Juan Miranda
    55 Paul Goldschmidt
    56 Leslie Anderson
    57 Casey Kotchman
    58 Chris Marrero
    59 Mark Trumbo
    60 Brandon Snyder
    61 Ryan Strieby
    62 Neftali Soto
    63 Pablo Sandoval
    64 Lance Berkman
    65 Kevin Youkilis
    66 Paul Konerko
    67 Adam Dunn
    68 Luke Scott
    69 Todd Helton
    70 Derek Lee

    Note: I've put guys who will probably fade away in a couple years or stick to DH or another spot at the bottom when they obviously should be much higher. Remember this is about the future.
    I bolded the ones I believe will be/are as good or better production wise than Yonder over the next 5 years or so strictly with the bat IF Yonder cuts down his swing a bit. There are a few I am on the fence about because I haven't studied them/their issues or lack thereof like Smoak, Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Kila K., Rizzo and Viciedo. But others are fading (ex. Helton) or haven't shown enough yet (Soto) or I have seen enough and am not overly impressed (Butler, Ike Davis, Loney, Sandoval, Kotchman, Edwin) or not impressed at all (Francisco, Chris Davis, Brett Wallace, B. Allen, Borchering, Blanks). There are also some of those guys I don't know at all like Goldschmidt, Streiby, Trumbo.

    Bottom line I would rate Alonso as a top 15-20 1B in all of pro ball right now because I believe he can hit for power, average & discipline with a bit of coaching. In fact I despise the fact the people want to pigeon hole the guy into a Sean Casey type of mold because he hasn't hit for tons of power in the minors...yet. I will blame all of that on his hand injury and assuming health I do expect him to hit for lots of power in Louisville this season, then the "experts" will give him a fast ascension up the ranks come mid season/late season.

    The only question for me is can that translate to the bigs and none of these other big name prospects have proven that yet either. So until there is some seperation I will put him on the list if not near the top of it when it comes to minor league 1B prospects.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 02-26-2011 at 03:17 PM.
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  3. #17
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I bolded the ones I believe will be/are as good or better production wise than Yonder over the next 5 years or so strictly with the bat IF Yonder cuts down his swing a bit. There are a few I am on the fence about because I haven't studied them/their issues or lack thereof like Smoak, Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Kila K., Rizzo and Viciedo. But others are fading (ex. Helton) or haven't shown enough yet (Soto) or I have seen enough and am not overly impressed (Butler, Ike Davis, Loney, Sandoval, Kotchman, Edwin) or not impressed at all (Francisco, Chris Davis, Brett Wallace, B. Allen, Borchering, Blanks). There are also some of those guys I don't know at all like Goldschmidt, Streiby, Trumbo.

    Bottom line I would rate Alonso as a top 15-20 1B in all of pro ball right now because I believe he can hit for power, average & discipline with a bit of coaching. In fact I despise the fact the people want to pigeon hole the guy into a Sean Casey type of mold because he hasn't hit for tons of power in the minors...yet. I will blame all of that on his hand injury and assuming health I do expect him to hit for lots of power in Louisville this season, then the "experts" will give him a fast ascension up the ranks come mid season/late season.

    The only question for me is can that translate to the bigs and none of these other big name prospects have proven that yet either. So until there is some seperation I will put him on the list if not near the top of it when it comes to minor league 1B prospects.
    I think 15 to 20 is probably real close. So he's on the lower end of the middle range of starting caliber guys. Seems that 73rd best prospect in baseball is about right. There are lots of guys that you don't have bolded who are pretty close. I could argue that he's in the 20s somewhere, but the point doesn't change much. At some point, he becomes an interchangeable part (he's probably better than that and its why he's in the top 100 prospects). But guys who project to be pretty decent hitters like Brandon Allen and Lars Anderson probably don't have much more than journeyman careers as back-ups or stopgap starters on rebuilding teams. Guys like Lyle Overbay, Adam Laroche and James Loney are players that he's not really a lock to be better than and those are guys teams are continually looking to upgrade from.

    It means he's not an All Star. He's not an MVP threat. He's not even in the top half of his position and there are dozens of alternatives who may not be much of a drop-off. How can we quibble with being the 73rd best prospect?

    BTW, I'd probably slide him in at 23 on this list.
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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think 15 to 20 is probably real close. So he's on the lower end of the middle range of starting caliber guys. Seems that 73rd best prospect in baseball is about right. There are lots of guys that you don't have bolded who are pretty close. I could argue that he's in the 20s somewhere, but the point doesn't change much. At some point, he becomes an interchangeable part (he's probably better than that and its why he's in the top 100 prospects). But guys who project to be pretty decent hitters like Brandon Allen and Lars Anderson probably don't have much more than journeyman careers as back-ups or stopgap starters on rebuilding teams. Guys like Lyle Overbay, Adam Laroche and James Loney are players that he's not really a lock to be better than and those are guys teams are continually looking to upgrade from.

    It means he's not an All Star. He's not an MVP threat. He's not even in the top half of his position and there are dozens of alternatives who may not be much of a drop-off. How can we quibble with being the 73rd best prospect?

    BTW, I'd probably slide him in at 23 on this list.
    I guess it just depends on how he develops but I think he could be as good as anyone on the list short of maybe your top 4.
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I guess it just depends on how he develops but I think he could be as good as anyone on the list short of maybe your top 4.
    Yeah.... again, this is a guy, who when fully healthy has hit .327/.404/.549 since being drafted. I continue to say, people have let his injury REALLY affect how they think about him. When he was drafted, there was talk that he was a .300/.400/.500 hitter waiting to happen. Then he comes darn close in the FSL to doing just that. Heads to AA and breaks his hamate bone. After the one year mark of the injury he goes out and hits .347/.421/.592 in AAA over 200+ at bats.

    Yes, he really struggled for a while to hit when he came back from a broken hamate bone. Who doesn't? It saps a guys power, that is a well known thing. During the futures game this past season, Alonso was among the few who really impressed scouts with his power. I don't know, I just think people are allowing injury and recovery to block what the guy has done while healthy, which is absolutely murder the ball.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yeah.... again, this is a guy, who when fully healthy has hit .327/.404/.549 since being drafted. I continue to say, people have let his injury REALLY affect how they think about him. When he was drafted, there was talk that he was a .300/.400/.500 hitter waiting to happen. Then he comes darn close in the FSL to doing just that. Heads to AA and breaks his hamate bone. After the one year mark of the injury he goes out and hits .347/.421/.592 in AAA over 200+ at bats.

    Yes, he really struggled for a while to hit when he came back from a broken hamate bone. Who doesn't? It saps a guys power, that is a well known thing. During the futures game this past season, Alonso was among the few who really impressed scouts with his power. I don't know, I just think people are allowing injury and recovery to block what the guy has done while healthy, which is absolutely murder the ball.
    These guys are 1B. They almost all hit. Brandon Allen with a .935 OPS in 697 AAA PAs., Mark Trumbo .945 OPS in 595 AAA PAs, Lucas Duda .999 OPS in 298 AAA PAs, Juan Francisco with a .911 OPS in 428 AAA PAs. Heck Danny Dorn has an OPS of .859 in 715 AAA PAs and can't even crack the 40 man roster or interest anyone in Rule 5. These guys can hit. It takes a lot to be a standout. Being ranked in the top 100 seems like pretty good recognition considering the high standards at his only position.
    Last edited by mth123; 02-26-2011 at 08:44 PM.
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    These guys are 1B. They almost all hit. Brandon Allen with a .935 OPS in 697 AAA PAs., Mark Trumbo .945 OPS in 595 AAA PAs, Lucas Duda .999 OPS in 298 AAA PAs, Juan Francisco with a .911 OPS in 428 AAA PAs. Heck Danny Dorn has an OPS of .859 in 715 AAA PAs and can't even crack the 40 man roster or interest anyone in Rule 5. These guys can hit. It takes a lot to be a standout. Being ranked in the top 100 seems like pretty good recognition considering the high standards at his only position.
    Sure, they are first baseman, but there were only 5 MLB first baseman who had an OPS over .900. Only 10 were even over .850. So to be in the upper third of baseball's first baseman, you simply needed to post an .850 OPS last season. Now, 2009 was a different story, when 13 guys were over .900. But even if that is the "going rate" for those guys, if you are the 15th best guy on the first basemans list, you are going to be accounting for a whole lot of runs for your team. All I know is that it seems Alonso coming out of the draft was seen as a future All Star projected to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter, and when healthy, he has done better than that in the minors, and his stock has dropped considerably IMO and I just can't figure out why.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sure, they are first baseman, but there were only 5 MLB first baseman who had an OPS over .900. Only 10 were even over .850. So to be in the upper third of baseball's first baseman, you simply needed to post an .850 OPS last season. Now, 2009 was a different story, when 13 guys were over .900. But even if that is the "going rate" for those guys, if you are the 15th best guy on the first basemans list, you are going to be accounting for a whole lot of runs for your team. All I know is that it seems Alonso coming out of the draft was seen as a future All Star projected to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter, and when healthy, he has done better than that in the minors, and his stock has dropped considerably IMO and I just can't figure out why.
    1. Not sure at 1B .300/.400/.500 is an all star.
    2. Alonso has never had an OPS of .900 in any season so far.

    He put up an .880 one year at A+ and its the best he's done. At AAA he's at .825 in 445 PAs, yet he's ranked ahead of those .900+ guys like Trumbo, Allen, Duda, Francisco etc. that I posted above. He's viewed as the #73 prospect in baseball with an OPS below that of Danny Dorn who has more success and more versatility and can't get a roster spot. I don't see how he's being sold short.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    1. Not sure at 1B .300/.400/.500 is an all star.
    2. Alonso has never had an OPS of .900 in any season so far.

    He put up an .880 one year at A+ and its the best he's done. At AAA he's at .825 in 445 PAs, yet he's ranked ahead of those .900+ guys like Trumbo, Allen, Duda, Francisco etc. that I posted above. He's viewed as the #73 prospect in baseball with an OPS below that of Danny Dorn who has more success and more versatility and can't get a roster spot. I don't see how he's being sold short.
    In his one year at A+, it was the FSL. If he were in the CAL that probably would have been a 1.000 OPS. As for his AAA numbers, I am not worried about them when a good chunk of them came with him recovering from the hamate issue. Dude is going to rake and has when healthy, with all of the right peripherals.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I bolded the ones I believe will be/are as good or better production wise than Yonder over the next 5 years or so strictly with the bat IF Yonder cuts down his swing a bit. There are a few I am on the fence about because I haven't studied them/their issues or lack thereof like Smoak, Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Kila K., Rizzo and Viciedo. But others are fading (ex. Helton) or haven't shown enough yet (Soto) or I have seen enough and am not overly impressed (Butler, Ike Davis, Loney, Sandoval, Kotchman, Edwin) or not impressed at all (Francisco, Chris Davis, Brett Wallace, B. Allen, Borchering, Blanks). There are also some of those guys I don't know at all like Goldschmidt, Streiby, Trumbo.

    Bottom line I would rate Alonso as a top 15-20 1B in all of pro ball right now because I believe he can hit for power, average & discipline with a bit of coaching. In fact I despise the fact the people want to pigeon hole the guy into a Sean Casey type of mold because he hasn't hit for tons of power in the minors...yet. I will blame all of that on his hand injury and assuming health I do expect him to hit for lots of power in Louisville this season, then the "experts" will give him a fast ascension up the ranks come mid season/late season.

    The only question for me is can that translate to the bigs and none of these other big name prospects have proven that yet either. So until there is some seperation I will put him on the list if not near the top of it when it comes to minor league 1B prospects.
    A top 15-20 1B at the show who costs 400k per season has enormous value.
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Plus Plus View Post
    A top 15-20 1B at the show who costs 400k per season has enormous value.
    I'd simply get rid of the "enormous" in that declaration and leave it at that.

    You can find a cheap, productive 1B fairly easily in today's market if you choose wisely. It happens often each year.

    Alonso will have to OPS 925+ to be an All Star, perhaps as much as 1.000. As of now, he's not shown that level in the minor leagues. Perhaps it has been a confluence of injury, park, and league, but, as of yet, he's been underwhelming.

    That doesn't mean he won't slug as early as this year. But it should definitely be a case of caveat emptor.

    (And, fwiw, I have him around 20-25 on that list, not including LFers and others who will move to the 1B position.
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    I'm noticing the people who knocked Mes and Stubbs are the one's that are lukewarm on Alonso. I'm also noticing the guy defending Alonso was right about Mes and Stubbs. I'm gonna learn from history and give him the benefit of the doubt as far as his production to this point goes.

    Plus, I have to think an average first-baseman is considerably more valuable than an average player at other positions. Salary data, at the very least, confirms that teams think that's the case.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I'd simply get rid of the "enormous" in that declaration and leave it at that.

    You can find a cheap, productive 1B fairly easily in today's market if you choose wisely. It happens often each year.

    Alonso will have to OPS 925+ to be an All Star, perhaps as much as 1.000. As of now, he's not shown that level in the minor leagues. Perhaps it has been a confluence of injury, park, and league, but, as of yet, he's been underwhelming.

    That doesn't mean he won't slug as early as this year. But it should definitely be a case of caveat emptor.

    (And, fwiw, I have him around 20-25 on that list, not including LFers and others who will move to the 1B position.
    Not really. Even average 1B like Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena make north of $10 million a year.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Some are expensive, sure. Doesn't mean they should be.

    Depends on how well you shop. Jim Thome, for example, made just $1.5 million last season. Russell Branyan made about the same the year before. There are three or four each year who are cheap and productive.
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Some are expensive, sure. Doesn't mean they should be.

    Depends on how well you shop. Jim Thome, for example, made just $1.5 million last season. Russell Branyan made about the same the year before. There are three or four each year who are cheap and productive.
    Thome was a DH in every game last season too. Branyan started 51 games at first.

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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Either could have played 1B. Both were available late and were signed for a huge discount.
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