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Thread: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Either could have played 1B. Both were available late and were signed for a huge discount.
    Maybe. Thome is pretty old, not sure he would have been able to play first base on a daily basis and he hasn't even played a third of a season at first since 2004. Branyan, perhaps.... but his bat wasn't as good as I would expect Alonso's to be.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    If Alonso approaches a 140+ OPS, I'll be thrilled.

    I don't think he'll do that on a consistent basis.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I'm noticing the people who knocked Mes and Stubbs are the one's that are lukewarm on Alonso. I'm also noticing the guy defending Alonso was right about Mes and Stubbs. I'm gonna learn from history and give him the benefit of the doubt as far as his production to this point goes.

    Plus, I have to think an average first-baseman is considerably more valuable than an average player at other positions. Salary data, at the very least, confirms that teams think that's the case.
    I'm not knocking Alonso. I actually think he's probably the Reds 3rd best hitter right now. But if he can't move off of 1B or he doesn't put up a monster numbers (which he hasn't so far), he's one of many pretty good hitters at his position. Guys who have outproduced him didn't make the list while Alonso gets ranked 73rd. I think that indicates there is awareness of his potential and they ranked him over a lot of others who have outhit him because of it. My whole problem is the idea that he's been slighted. There are guys at other positions who will probably be better than middle of the pack ranked ahead of him. There are similar bats who have defensive flexability who outrank him. I just don't see what the beef is.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  5. #34
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Some are expensive, sure. Doesn't mean they should be.

    Depends on how well you shop. Jim Thome, for example, made just $1.5 million last season. Russell Branyan made about the same the year before. There are three or four each year who are cheap and productive.
    That's not completely accurate. There was one cheap 1B signed as a free agent last year who has produced a WAR above 3, Aubrey Huff. He was coming off a year in which he OPS'ed below .700. So basically, you need to get really lucky.

    Adam LaRoche, who is just a league average 1B, signed a two year $16M contract this offseason. That is the going rate for a career .827 OPS 1B.

    So if all Yonder becomes is a .827 OPS guy, he would be worth around $8M a year on the open market. I think teams would give up a lot to get that for 5 years at $500K. And that is if he only becomes an 827 OPS guy.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #35
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My whole problem is the idea that he's been slighted. There are guys at other positions who will probably be better than middle of the pack ranked ahead of him. There are similar bats who have defensive flexability who outrank him. I just don't see what the beef is.
    I think he should be in the 50s. I see him as a similar player to Logan Morrison, but a notch below, and Morrison was a top-20 guy.

  7. #36
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released his top 101 prospects yesterday. Four Reds made the list.

    6. Aroldis Chapman
    46. Billy Hamilton
    53. Devin Mesoraco
    86. Yasmani Grandal

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=13078

    From his chat:

    flutie flake (raining, pa): I'm heavily intruiged by what I've heard about Yorman Rodriguez - is he simply too raw and too far away for 101 consideration at this point?

    Kevin Goldstein: Another excellent choice for the "likely to hit next year's list" list. Of lists.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ch...php?chatId=817
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  8. #37
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'm not knocking Alonso. I actually think he's probably the Reds 3rd best hitter right now. But if he can't move off of 1B or he doesn't put up a monster numbers (which he hasn't so far), he's one of many pretty good hitters at his position. Guys who have outproduced him didn't make the list while Alonso gets ranked 73rd. I think that indicates there is awareness of his potential and they ranked him over a lot of others who have outhit him because of it. My whole problem is the idea that he's been slighted. There are guys at other positions who will probably be better than middle of the pack ranked ahead of him. There are similar bats who have defensive flexability who outrank him. I just don't see what the beef is.
    He's being slighted largely by RZ's IMO. Sure I also feel the "experts" are slighting him as well but I have less faith in them to begin with than I do RZ's. These crappy rankings around the business are a "what have you done for me lately" list masquerading as a "these guys are the future" list. If it is some sort of prediction of future worth then they are so-so at it at best.

    I think a prospect ranking list should be less fluid. Either you believe in a guy until you see a reason not to or you don't. Don't believe him in one day and a couple months later change it just because you have him on some sort of expected timeline (you being a prospect guru in general). A change in rankings should really only reflect a real change in skills and not so much on production. And sure there should be some degree of timeline but with these guys and alot of fans it is arbitrary and way too often well short of realistic.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  9. #38
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    If a prospect struggles at a higher level or doesn't develop a specific tool as he was projected to, people shouldn't drop him for that?

    Dee Gordon was once going to be an All Star leadoff hitter. His body never developed beyond puberty, meaning his strength wasn't enough to keep pitchers from pounding him in the strike zone. Which hurt his BB rate. Which hurt his BA. Which hurt his OBP.

    Why wouldn't you drop a guy like that to a lower spot in your Top 100?

    Some people develop as expected. Others develop better than expected. Some don't develop at all.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  10. #39
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    If a prospect struggles at a higher level or doesn't develop a specific tool as he was projected to, people shouldn't drop him for that?

    Dee Gordon was once going to be an All Star leadoff hitter. His body never developed beyond puberty, meaning his strength wasn't enough to keep pitchers from pounding him in the strike zone. Which hurt his BB rate. Which hurt his BA. Which hurt his OBP.

    Why wouldn't you drop a guy like that to a lower spot in your Top 100?

    Some people develop as expected. Others develop better than expected. Some don't develop at all.
    Except anyone who ever saw Dee Gordon should have known his body wasn't going to develop. He NEVER should have been that high and it should have been known the first time someone saw him. I still can't believe how highly rated he is. The guy is fast. He actually has nice bat speed and a good looking swing at times too. But his size simply isn't going to allow him to hit the ball well enough to be anything more than a below average hitting shortstop.

    But yes, guys that don't develop as expected should drop some.

  11. #40
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America Top 100 (4 Reds)

    Zack Cozart, Yorman Rodriguez, Yasmani Grandal, and Todd Frazier were all mentioned in the top 150.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...1/2611354.html
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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