Of course, nothing is in stone at this point.
Of course, nothing is in stone at this point.
The pitching staff will be very crowded. If the Reds keep 12 pitchers, that means 7 relievers, with Cordero, Masset and Chapman being locks. I'd probably put Bray in that category, as well. That leaves three spots from among the following:
loser of Leake/Bailey/Wood derby
Daniel Ray Herrera
Anyway, of all the above, if the top three make the club, that leaves at Louisville: (Leake), Maloney, LeCure, Willis, Fisher, Smith, Herrera and no doubt Justin Lehr if he's healthy. That's eight spots out of their, what, 12? All with major-league credentials, and most still on the young side (all but Willis and Lehr).
Now, add the guys who were either in Louisville last year or deserve a promotion from Carolina:
Starters: Matt Fairel, Matt Klinker, Tom Cochran, Daryl Thompson, Chad Reineke.
Bullpen: Jeremy Horst, Philippe Valiquette, Jerry Gil, Joe Krebs.
So, only four of those guys, roughly (unless they keep more pitchers at AAA), will make the Louisville roster right off the bat. That leaves five of the above at Carolina or released or whatever. Again, unless the Louisville roster includes more than 12 pitchers.
Goya's list includes five of those guys (Cochran, Gil, Horst, Klinker Krebs), which could well be the case if they keep 13 pitchers. That said, it would be hard to imagine Reineke, Thompson and Valiquette being anywhere but Louisville.
Of course, the DL will be a factor.
A few guys are going to get released (position players and pitchers.) There really is just not enough room.
Fairel's just 23 and I would let him cook a little longer in AA.
Fairel won't be pitching until at least June. He had surgery last season.
Here is my guess as to how the pitching shakes out at the upper levels to start the year:
Reds Rotation: Volquez. Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood. Bullpen: Cordero, Chapman, Masset, Bray, Arredondo, Burton, Willis.
AAA Rotation: Leake, Maloney, Lecure, Reineke, Klinker. Bullpen: Smith, Ondrusek, Thompson, Valiquette/Herrera, Fisher, Horst. Gil DL Lehr. (One of Herrera or Valiquette goes to make room for Willis on the 40 man).
AA Rotation: Cochran, Avery, Buck, Carroll, Hotchkiss. AA Bullpen: Boxberger, Webb, Ware, Krebs, Freeman, Tabor, Medina. DL: Fairel
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Hopefully they remove Danny Ray before Valiquette for Willis. I really see no value any longer in Herrera except as an injury decimated replacement and he is far down that list even. Nothing against Danny Ray the person or even the player, seems like a great kid and he sure has moxie but his talent is really not useful enough in the majors to be taking up room on the 40 man. At least not this 40 man or a vast majority of them either.
Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 02-26-2011 at 04:29 PM.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
I'd be curious as to where Thompson lands. Any thoughts?
And is Buck ready to roll?
My thoughts on Thompson are based on what I saw last year here at AA. There were glimpses of what the guy could be but he spent so much time on the shelf that you really never got enough to know for sure.
I was critical last year of him through several starts because I thought he was quick to throw in the towel. He had back to back starts where he got sick and had to leave the game early. In fact, my wife and I attended both of these starts. Traveling to the park before his second 'sick' start, I told my wife he'd never get through the 3rd inning. He didn't let me down. I am on record as questioning his stamina at this point. I would like to see the guy do well, I really would. Unless he has an overwhelming spring I don't see any reason for him to start above AA. I have no idea what his contract says so some of these decsions may already be spoken for.
DJ will be back in Carolina because of how much left-handed pitching depth they have in the big leagues and in Trips. And I agree with Mario about Danny Ray being taken off before Val. You don't take off a guy who throws 98 from the left side unless you absolutely have to.
And Muddie is right, when healthy, DT was pretty nice. With his age/experience he should be in Triple-A, but you never know. Some moves are obviously going to have to be made before anything is final.
Not to detract from this thread, but if Val made it to the bigs this year there would be two Canadians on this roster. Ever happened before in MLB?
Eric Gagné and Russell Martin with the Dodgers from the top of my head. Besides they were also from the province of Quebec and both of them and Valiquette went to the same high school.