Zero chance the Reds miss the playoffs!
Always enjoy Fangraphs' articles.
Article was a good read, especially about the Reds having five or six No. 3 guys in the rotation (I think that's what it said; read it last night, so my memory may be a bit off). The good news is that a few of those #3 guys have the potential to be #1 or #2 guys. Man I'm excited about this year.
Arizona: Ian Kennedy 3.80, Dan Haren 3.91 (4.60 ERA in the 21 games he pitched for Arizona, he was then traded to LAA)
Atlanta: Tim Hudson 2.83, Tommy Hanson 3.33
Chicago: Carlos Zambrano 3.33, Ted Lilly 3.69. If you want to exclude Zambrano since 16 of his appearances were in relief, Ryan Dempster posted a 3.85 ERA.
Colorado: Ubaldo Jimenez 2.88, Jhoulys Chacin 3.28
Florida: Josh Johnson 2.30, Anibal Sanchez 3.55
Houston: Roy Oswalt 2.76 (3.42 in 20 games for Houstin, then traded to PHI), Brett Myers 3.14
Los Angeles: Clayton Kershaw 2.91, Hiroki Kuroda 3.39
Milwaukee: Yovani Gallardo 3.84, Randy Wolf 4.17
New York: R. A. Dickey 2.84, Johan Santana 2.98
Philadelphia: Roy Halladay 2.44, Cole Hamels 3.06
Pittsburgh: Ross Ohlendorf 4.07, Jeff Karstens 4.92. James McDonald posted a 3.52 ERA, but that was in only 11 starts.
San Diego: Mat Latos 2.92, Jon Garland 3.47
San Francisco: Madison Bumgarner 3.00, Jonathan Sanchez 3.07. Let's not forget they also have Lincecum (3.43) and Cain (3.14).
St. Louis: Adam Wainwright 2.42, Jaime Garcia 2.70
Washington: Livan Hernandez 3.66, John Lannan 4.65
Just going by ERA, which is honestly far from perfect, the only teams where they would slot in as better than a #3 are Arizona, Chicago (barely), Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Washington (barely). The good thing about the Reds' rotation is its depth and potential, not necessarily what it did last year -- remember, Cincinnati's SP ERA last year was 4.05, only 10th in the NL.
I am not sure I would describe Mike Leake as a "ground ball machine." The guy reminds me of Danny Graves for better or worse.