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Thread: 25 Man prediction thread

  1. #16
    -The Insider-
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I have a hunch Sappelt will force this issue. He may not start (just my wishful thinking if he is now what he has shown as of late) but I think he has a pretty good shot of beating out Heisey at this point. Heisey simply hasn't addressed his issues at the plate and until he does he will be lucky to hit much in S/T.
    I don't think they'd have Sapp break and sit on the bench. He's not on the 40 and you're already going to have to make room on it if Willis breaks and if Hermida breaks (doubt he will)

    Here's how I see it

    Hernandez,
    Votto
    Phillips
    Rolen
    Janish
    Gomes
    Stubbs
    Bruce

    Cairo
    Hanigan
    Renteria
    Lewis
    Heisey

    Volquez
    Arroyo
    Cueto
    Wood
    Bailey

    Arredono
    Burton
    Ondrusek
    Bray
    Masset
    Chapman
    Cordero


    The only thing I think could change is if Bray starts to struggle and Willis continues to shine. Actually, I'd prefer Willis over Bray but I doubt that happens unless something drastically occurs.

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  3. #17
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I know this will be met with some thoughts of it being too early but frankly I like to gauge gut reaction in a small sample size, I think it's usually pretty telling. Who makes the opening day 25 man roster? I'll present mine as a lineup/bench/rotation order/pen order prediction as well. Obviously this is health permitting though some guys (Arredondo) you might decide is likely to not make it right away due to where he is in his recovery process.

    LF - Dave Sappelt
    2B - Brandon Phillips
    1B - Joey Votto (LH)
    3B - Scott Rolen
    RF - Jay Bruce (LH)
    CF - Drew Stubbs
    C - Ramon Hernandez
    SS - Paul Janish

    C - Hanigan
    MIF - Renteria
    CIF - Cairo
    CIF - Juan Francisco (LH)
    OF - Fred Lewis (LH)
    OF - Jonny Gomes

    Volquez
    Arroyo
    Cueto
    Wood (LH)
    Bailey

    Cordero - CL
    Masset - SU
    Chapman - SU (LH)
    Burton - MR
    Bray - MR (LH)
    Ondrusek - MR


    I think they go with an extra bat early this time around, just a hunch. And I think Sappelt and Lewis beat out Heisey as a reserve OF. I think once Arredondo is ready you'll see Francisco go back to AAA unless there are injuries or Cairo is sent packing if he isn't performing.
    I like your roster better than the one I think will happen. I like Francisco as a lefty power bat and caddy for Rolen (and Votto) way better than Cairo. I also like Heisey going back to AAA. Heisey actually has a chance to be a decent player in a Cody Ross kind of way IMO. His AAA time was cut short last year and if I had to choose who to keep on the bench and who to play every day at AAA, I'd probably rather have Heisey playing every day instead of most of the other guys who people want to leave in AAA to get PAs. Not sure Sappelt makes the team though. He needs the PAs in AAA as well. I still hope they'll pick somebody up who relegates both Gomes and Lewis to the bench. They'll have some pen arms to spare. I'm also starting to think that they'll leave Arredondo on the DL to start the year and give him a rehab stint for the first 15 days or so.

    C (2) - Hernandez, Hanigan
    IF (6) - Votto, Phillips, Janish, Renteria, Rolen, Cairo (prefer Francisco, but they won't sign a guy to a two year deal and cut him before the season starts no matter how cheap he is).
    OF (5) - Lewis, Gomes, Bruce, Stubbs, Acquisition
    P (12) - Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Willis, Ondrusek, Bray, Burton, Masset, Chapman, Cordero
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  4. #18
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    If Arredondo is healthy, why not just option him to Triple-A? I believe he has options left.

  5. #19
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    If Arredondo is healthy, why not just option him to Triple-A? I believe he has options left.
    If he is healthy he should probably be on the roster, he is probably among the 3 maybe 4 most talented BP arms we have (Chapman, Masset, Jose & CoCo). I was just suggesting that the team could prefer to make sure he is healthy by not throwing him into the fire right away.
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  6. #20
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    It seems pretty obvious (to me at least) that Willis is going to make the team. If Sappelt had a realistic shot of making the team out of spring training, he'd make it too. Sadly I don't think he did and therefor he won't. It also seems pretty obvious that Homer is going to be handed a spot in the rotation because he's out of options. I'm not saying he won't earn it, but it really doesn't matter if he does or not. It also seems like it'll be Wood as the 5th start.

    Therefor:
    Hernandez
    Hanigan

    Votto

    Phillips
    Cairo

    Janish
    Renteria

    Rolen

    Gomes
    Stubbs
    Bruce
    Heisey
    Lewis

    Volquez
    Arroyo
    Cueto
    Bailey
    Wood

    Cordero
    Masset
    Chapman
    Bray
    Willis
    Ondrusek
    Burton/Arredondo/Smith
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  7. #21
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Sappelt won't make it, but he's sure opened some eyes for either later this year or for next season. If Gomes struggles in a full-time role (likely) and Baker can't find an effective leadoff hitter, I could see a three-headed monster of Lewis, Heisey, Sappelt, and Gomes trading off LF for the rest of 2011, then move into 2012 with Sappelt and Lewis platooning (though not straight up) and hitting in the top spot of the order.
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  8. #22
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Walt's comments on the TV boradcast seem to indicate Sappelt will be in Louisville when it woefully obvious that he's a better option than even Heisey. No matter, that's baseball. I really believe that Homer will be in the rotation and Willis will be in the bullpen. And I'll predict that Renteria will be the regular shortstop before May. That said, watch for lots of movement between Louisville and Cincinnati. So much talent is available. that can't be a bad thing.
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  9. #23
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Re:Sappelt, are we really saying these things because of 20 pre St. Patrick's Day PAs? Still trying to understand the fad. I get that everyone wants another horse in the LF race to root for, but we should be realistic.

  10. #24
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Re:Sappelt, are we really saying these things because of 20 pre St. Patrick's Day PAs? Still trying to understand the fad. I get that everyone wants another horse in the LF race to root for, but we should be realistic.
    Probably has more to do with the fact he posted a .361/.416/.548/.964 line in AA last year, and followed it up with a .324/.365/.481 in an albeit short stint at the end of the year in AAA last year. And he's barely 24.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Re:Sappelt, are we really saying these things because of 20 pre St. Patrick's Day PAs? Still trying to understand the fad. I get that everyone wants another horse in the LF race to root for, but we should be realistic.
    To be fair, he did have a .902 OPS in 564 PAs across 3 minor league levels incuding and .847 OPS in 115 PAs at AAA. It wasn't all just batting average either. He had 53 EXB including double digits in 2B, 3B and HR. I do think he needs some more AAA PAs to knock the door down, but he does provide the exact skillset that this team is missing at the top of the order, he's a plus defender with an improving arm as the injury he suffered goes farther in the past and as a RH Bat, would make a good partner with Lewis in a job share at the lead-off spot. I really think the Reds are working with him on his baserunning and its one of the primary things working against him. 25 SB with 18 CS is a big negative. Not sure if he was picked-off or thrown out on the bases in other ways a lot last year, but that success rate screams "don't run." If there were obvious choices ahead of him, he'd have no chance, but IMO, LF is wide open with flawed candidates. Heisey and Sappelt both have every day potential and ideally, I'd like to see them both go to AAA and get some every day PT while Gomes and Lewis hold the spot down. But both Gomes and Lewis are poor defenders who are pretty flawed and limited offensively and if they struggle the Reds should be ready to make a change quickly.
    Last edited by mth123; 03-10-2011 at 05:29 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #26
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Wasn't Sappelt the minor league player of the year for the Reds? Or was that Mes?

    Regardless, he had a monstrous year last year and jumped through and smashed through three levels. Still, like Mes, there is nothing wrong with more time at AAA since he just got there at the end of last year, and, in fact, has plenty to work on. No reason to rush him. Hopefully, he goes to AAA and mashes some more and tightens up his running, and forces his way to Cincy and the top of the order next year, or maybe even later this year.

    Nice prospect from kinda outta nowhere and a further sign of the health of the Reds farm system at the moment.

  13. #27
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    After watching the 2010 version of Sappelt in the majors last year, Im not sure how we can think that this guy needs to be in the majors on OD. Put him in AAA and let him do it again. I get the feeling that the love for him has more to do with our feelings of the current LF candidates, which is potentially clouding our vision.

  14. #28
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Re the 40 man roster. Last year Mike Leake wasn't on the 40 man roster and the Reds took him out of camp. I doubt Sappelt makes the club but if he continues to impress he won't be long for AAA.

  15. #29
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Catcher:
    1. Ramon Hernandez
    2. Ryan Hanigan

    First Base:
    3. Joey Votto

    Second Base:
    4. Brandon Phillips

    Third Base:
    5. Scott Rolen

    Short stop:
    6. Paul Janish
    7. Edgar Renteria

    Starting out field:
    8. Jonny Gomes
    9. Drew Stubbs
    10. Jay Bruce

    Starting Rotation:
    11. Edison Volquez
    12. Bronson Arroyo
    13. Johnny Cueto
    14. Homer Bailey
    15. Travis Wood

    Bullpen:
    16. Fransisco Cordero
    17. Alrodis Chapman
    18. Nick Masset
    19. Jared Burton
    20. Dontrelle Willis
    21. Logan Ondrusk

    Bench:
    22. Juan Fransisco
    23. Miguel Cairo
    24. Fred Lewis
    25. Chris Heisey
    Most Vottomatic Player

  16. #30
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    Re: 25 Man prediction thread

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    After watching the 2010 version of Sappelt in the majors last year, Im not sure how we can think that this guy needs to be in the majors on OD. Put him in AAA and let him do it again. I get the feeling that the love for him has more to do with our feelings of the current LF candidates, which is potentially clouding our vision.
    Yes. As the old saying goes, wait till the boys start throwing curveballs.
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