This is an article I believe several of you guys might find interesting. It is a piece in the weekend edition of the WSJ book section that takes off on sabermetrics in baseball.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...oks_LS_Books_8
This is an article I believe several of you guys might find interesting. It is a piece in the weekend edition of the WSJ book section that takes off on sabermetrics in baseball.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...oks_LS_Books_8
The article starts off with something that bothers me. The photo of Strasburg and then this caption:
"Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg blew out his arm as a rookie. Will new camera-based analysis, now overtaking statistics within front offices, allow teams to forestall such injury?"
I know plenty of people who looked at Strasburg's mechanics and thought he was an injury waiting to happen because of the hyperabduction he gets when he loads. This isn't exactly a new idea. I have heard it for at least 5 years now (in terms of the type of mechanics Strasburg employs, not Strasburg himself).
Doug, if you haven't already read the entire article, do. It is pretty good.
I just finished it. It ended the same way it started.... with talking about Strasburgs mechanics incorrectly. Strasburg didn't get hurt because he had a bad finish, he got hurt because of the middle of his delivery when he gets his elbow higher than his shoulder (just like the also mentioned Chris Sale). Now, I am sure the writer of the article isn't exactly an expert in the field and is simply doing some book reviews, but it still rubs me the wrong way slightly. I am excited about the Field F/X data though, as well as the Hit F/X data. I can't wait to get my hands on it if MLBAM allows it to go public like they have with the Pitch F/X data.Originally Posted by muddie
FWIW, this article is not about Strasburg. The article is about the progression of sabermetrics and the legitimacy the 'art' of sabermetrics is gaining among the higher ups in baseball, albeit slowly. Strasburg's injury was just the vehicle the writer chose to introduce the topic.
I agree that it's a well-done, provocative article. And I agree that Strasburg and his mechanics have little to do with its general purpose. However, I thought the most useful, profound passage did have Strasburg as its inspiration, more or less:
"Imagine that every team can tell that a young pitcher—like Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals or Chris Sale of the White Sox—is adding 40% to his chances of tearing up his elbow because he finishes his delivery poorly. The real advantage will then be with the team that can assess his character and judge whether he's the sort of kid who can change his motion and stick to it. In other words, subjective reads on motivation, intelligence and aptitude—the province of scouts and grizzled managers—will again become paramount."
It's a favorite theme of mine . . . that sabermetrics are extraordinarily enlightening, but can't take you all the way to the finish line. Ultimately, games are still decided by old-fashioned insight, character and intangibles.
The whole idea of predicting injuries based on mechanics seems very dicey to me. I think there are too many microfactors to accurately predict who is going to get injured and when.
Even if a guy has a "perfect" pitching motion, injury can strike.
I remember a few years ago when everyone was saying Rich Harden could pitch forever with that easy motion of his.
A few years before that, people lauded Mark Prior's pristine mechanics.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
It seems like there have been a lot of people who have "predicted" certain arm injuries. Has there been any legitimate studies or breakdowns which predicted pitchers who will stay healthy?
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