After Leake's performance today, we might want to get worried about the pitching staff.
In depth pitching staff look:
http://tapthoseshinguards.blogspot.com/
After Leake's performance today, we might want to get worried about the pitching staff.
In depth pitching staff look:
http://tapthoseshinguards.blogspot.com/
It's no longer a strength.Originally Posted by mattwellsey
Volquez has been ineffective since his return from injury last year.
Cueto's not healthy.
Leake has been ineffective since June of last year and never should have been considered for the Major League club.
Maloney and Willis look more like our #5 starters than Leake ever will this season.
Arroyo is our #1, though his health is questionable at the moment, but he should be ready, as he always is ready.
Wood is our #2.
Bailey is our #3.
Then it's a toss-up between Cueto and Volquez for our #4...one needs to prove he's healthy and the other needs to prove he can pitch again.
Maloney or Willis should be our #5, possibly #4 right now.
I really can't believe that Volquez is being given the ball for Opening Day. That's just stupid.
-I'm not worried at all. Cueto's coming off his best year and this injury doesn't look serious.
-As for Volquez being the opening day starter, it doesn't mean a hill of beans over 162 games. That rotation is going to turn over 30+ times it doesn't matter what order it's in.
-Leake's still young and was effective through July (not June), and his only bad month was August where his ERA was 8.83 for the month. Even then, I believe he was playing on borrowed time, being a true rookie and not used to the length of a 162 game season.
That isn't an argument for Leake being the 5th starter to open the year. It's an argument that one bad month in the bigs and one bad spring isn't going to keep me up at night.
-Ideally, Leake opens the year in AAA and gets confidence and instruction and takes the reigns of the 5th spot whenever the need arises. In the meantime, Willis and Maloney would make serviceable 5th starters.
Every game matters.
Your best pitchers should get the most starts.
Mike Leake NEVER pitched more than 5 innings AND gave up less than 3 runs in any game after June 5th of last year. I'd say that's pretty ineffective since June.
Not true. June 21st: 6 IP and 1 ER, but that's the only exception.
But there are plenty of okay starts too.
July 4th: 6 IP and 3ER,
July 20: 5 IP and 1ER
Aug 3: 5 IP and 0 ER
Aug 14: 6 IP and 3 ER.
And he went 6+ IP every start until July 20th with 1 exception.
And as for July as a whole, Leake goes 2-1, 4.56 ERA, posts his second lowest monthly WHIP, and his best K/BB ratio.
Seems to me from looking at his game log that he changed his approach around the all-star break. He tried to turn into a strikeout pitcher later in the year instead of pitching to contact and keeping his pitch count low enough to go 6-8 innings.
I don't think that's enough to cause alarm or force him to stay in AAA for a full year, but I do think he needs at least a month at that level to work on pitching to contact, throwing strikes, and regaining confidence.
I would be interested to know why people trust the Reds medical staff? I am willing to bet we don't see a healthy Cueto at all this season and by mid june he is shut down and having surgery...
I'm concerned. And every game does count to me. Opening Day can end up meaning nothing in the long run, but why just throw it away? Volquez clearly is not ready. Why not run someone out there that is ready? I disagree with starting Volquez opening day, also.
I'm concerned about Cueto, mainly because he hasn't gotten much work. Same with Arroyo, but he's a veteran with a rubber arm.......and probably doesn't need as much work.
I'd put Maloney in the 5-spot also, for now.
Send Leake and Volquez down to work things out.
Arroyo
Bailey
Wood
Maloney or Cueto
We won't need a 5th starter for many weeks.
Go with;
Wood
Bailey
Bronson
Volquez
Leake
So meaningless to list them 1-5. I can't imagine a scenario where Arroyo doesn't get the most starts. He eats innings. In reality, they're all #3 starters with Volquez being the only one that has a chance of being a #1.
I'm not going to put much stock in a few meaningless spring training games, especially when these guys have years of minor and major league stats and scouting reports that tell you so much more about how good they are and what they're capable of.
If I were the projecting type, I'd still expect:
Arroyo - 200 IP, 4.0 ERA
Volquez - 180 IP, 3.5 ERA
Cueto - 160 IP, 3.8 ERA
Bailey - 160 IP, 3.9 ERA
Wood - 170 IP, 3.6 ERA
Leake - 60 IP, 4.4 ERA
That would be an awesome regular season rotation. And I'm actually being a little conservative here. I think Bailey and Volquez each may be much better.
I think that's a very, very good projection to what will happen.
Mine would be slightly different. I'd go with 150 innings for Volquez and 140 innings for Cueto, along with 200 innings for Wood and a 5.4 ERA for Leake and a 3.6 ERA for Arroyo.
Not worried. Let's see what happens when the games count before we worry.
Possible. Read on ESPN recently that they could see Cueto missing April. In that case I could see him dropping a few more innings depending on how bad this thing is. If it's bad enough, he might be in the 100-120 range. Leake would obviously bump up to around 100.
I think you're a little bearish on Leake, if he keeps up this 50% GB then I feel it would be a little hard for his ERA to balloon that high. But I won't say it's impossible.
Last edited by lonewolf371; 03-24-2011 at 11:05 AM.
I think the Reds will be lucky if it is just April, I think we are looking at a Homer type of injury with him seeing more DL time then playing time this season.
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