Define Success for 2011

[757690]

I think the core players you mention are going to cost enough by then, that there won't be any budget to add players to fill those holes. I do think that by then the rotation with Chapman, Bailey and Wood at the core might be better positioned to win in the post season. They'll upgrade catcher. They probably upgrade LF a little. They drop-off at 3B and 2B and may be slightly better at SS. Hamilton will make an impact at some point, but I'm guessing 2014 at the soonest. If they can keep Votto around, they'l probably be just as good as they are now, but they won't be better. Seems like this was the year where they had the combination of cheap kids and lots of talent and it would have been the optimal time for an addition to put them over the top.

Trading the extra young talent now, guarantees that now will be the only winning window the Reds have.

If you think that there will be big holes to fill in three years, then wouldn't it be wiser to hold onto the talent, let them mature to their peek value, and then use them to fill whatever holes the team might have? And if the team keeps drafting wisely, and signing international talent, they can keep this cycle up for a long time.

[camisadelgolf]

I think a lot of it comes down to expectations. If the Reds had traded the farm for a true ace and an impact bat, I'd be inclined to say, "Okay, this is it. The Reds are all about 2011," but the fact is that this team was built with the next several years in mind, so I'm merely expecting a playoff appearance with the hopes that they get hot at the right time.

[Caveat Emperor]

Everything good starts with making the playoffs.

[Chip R]

A lot of people seem to think that making the playoffs is success. I would like to hear more from those people. Though I can also see their point, I think I am aiming a little higher on this lol.

I think we all are aiming a little higher but I can't say that even if the Reds make the playoffs and don't advance that it's a failure.

[mth123]

I think a lot of it comes down to expectations. If the Reds had traded the farm for a true ace and an impact bat, I'd be inclined to say, "Okay, this is it. The Reds are all about 2011," but the fact is that this team was built with the next several years in mind, so I'm merely expecting a playoff appearance with the hopes that they get hot at the right time.

I get that. I have the opposite logic. I think this Red's team is pretty darned good. They have good players and lots of depth and only a couple of holes to fill. Had they drawn on that depth and filled those holes, I'd have been happy that they did all that they can reasonably be expected to do and I'd be satisified even if they miss the play-offs. Since they chose to do nothing, that suggests that they think they're good enough as is. If so, then show me by winning it all. Anything less will leave me wondering about the what ifs and unhappy that they didn't play all their cards. If they make some moves at the deadline, I might rethink that, but for now, I'm not content with an 88 to 90 win team and I hope the Reds aren't either.

I'll try a different analogy. If I had a kid in college who never picks up a book and brings home a C+ GPA, I'd wonder why I'm paying all this money and be pretty upset with him. If he's going to act like that, he better get an A. OTOH, if he studies like he should and only gets a C+, I'd be satisfied that he'd done all he could do. Of course, either way, I'd still love my kid and if the Reds fall short, I'll still live and die with every game and set my sights on 2012..

[Ron Madden]

I get that. I have the opposite logic. I think this Red's team is pretty darned good. They have good players and lots of depth and only a couple of holes to fill. Had they drawn on that depth and filled those holes, I'd have been happy that they did all that they can reasonably be expected to do and I'd be satisified even if they miss the play-offs. Since they chose to do nothing, that suggests that they think they're good enough as is. If so, then show me by winning it all. Anything less will leave me wondering about the what ifs and unhappy that they didn't play all their cards. If they make some moves at the deadline, I might rethink that, but for now, I'm not content with an 88 to 90 win team and I hope the Reds aren't either.

I'll try a different analogy. If I had a kid in college who never picks up a book and brings home a C+ GPA, I'd wonder why I'm paying all this money and be pretty upset with him. If he's going to act like that, he better get an A. OTOH, if he studies like he should and only gets a C+, I'd be satisfied that he'd done all he could do. Of course, either way, I'd still love my kid and if the Reds fall short, I'll still live and die with every game and set my sights on 2012..

This pretty much sums up my feelings in a nutshell.

I can see the Reds moving some of their young talent to fill what ever holes they may have at the deadline in July.

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[camisadelgolf]

I get that. I have the opposite logic. I think this Red's team is pretty darned good. They have good players and lots of depth and only a couple of holes to fill. Had they drawn on that depth and filled those holes, I'd have been happy that they did all that they can reasonably be expected to do and I'd be satisified even if they miss the play-offs. Since they chose to do nothing, that suggests that they think they're good enough as is. If so, then show me by winning it all. Anything less will leave me wondering about the what ifs and unhappy that they didn't play all their cards. If they make some moves at the deadline, I might rethink that, but for now, I'm not content with an 88 to 90 win team and I hope the Reds aren't either.

I'll try a different analogy. If I had a kid in college who never picks up a book and brings home a C+ GPA, I'd wonder why I'm paying all this money and be pretty upset with him. If he's going to act like that, he better get an A. OTOH, if he studies like he should and only gets a C+, I'd be satisfied that he'd done all he could do. Of course, either way, I'd still love my kid and if the Reds fall short, I'll still live and die with every game and set my sights on 2012..

I can't really argue with that, but what stops me from thinking like that is the Reds' limited resources (salary budget).

[edabbs44]

Since they chose to do nothing, that suggests that they think they're good enough as is.

Here is where your thinking goes off the tracks. It doesn't suggest that they think they are good enough as is. It suggests that, after assessing what was available this past off-season and for what cost, they felt as if the team is better off in the long run generally standing pat at this time.

[mth123]

Here is where your thinking goes off the tracks. It doesn't suggest that they think they are good enough as is. It suggests that, after assessing what was available this past off-season and for what cost, they felt as if the team is better off in the long run generally standing pat at this time.

Not after seeing guys who were acquired and what they were acquired for.

[edabbs44]

Not after seeing guys who were acquired and what they were acquired for.

If we had the available list and their price tages, we'd probably be better positioned to make that determination.

[edabbs44]

Jim Callis put out his crystal ball article last week, looking ahead to 2014. He says that the Cubs will have signed Pujols but they will still finish in 2nd place to the Reds, who have plenty of power, speed and pitching. And that they will be almost entirely homegrown with the exception of second base, where they will have Oscar Tejeda starting. Who they acquired for Grandal.

He also has Chapman still in the bullpen.

Just one man's opinion.

[bucksfan2]

World Series for me.

Rolen and Phillips probably won't be here more than a couple more years. Votto might be out then as well. The Reds have lots of nice players at the lower levels and some decent role players at AAA, but these guys were All Stars in 2010 and there will be a drop-off when they go. I'd say the time is now.

And you don't think the Reds are capable of replacing those player? The only player that will be tough to replace is Votto and he is still under their control for another 3 years. The Reds could do it via trade, in house development, or FA signing to replace these guys.

Getting to the playoffs is half the battle. Fluky things can happen when you make it to the playoffs. Your team can forget how to hit of forget how to field the ball. The ball can take funny bounces and one guy can continue a century's worth of losing.

The key to winning a WS title is to build a solid organization and take advantage of getting hot at the right time. How many times have the prohibitive favorites fallen short in the playoffs? To want or demand the WS is a little overboard if you ask me.

[mth123]

If we had the available list and their price tages, we'd probably be better positioned to make that determination.

Here is an example of something we do know. We know that Josh Willingham went for Corey Brown and a fringe bullpen guy like Henry Rodriguez. Willingham is a legit middle of the order bat who will probably hit 4th or 5th on the team that is likely to win the AL West. That's not worth a similar package of say Todd Frazier and Carlos Fisher?

I don't think the cost is the issue at all. I think the Reds are satisfied with Gomes and I'd bet that they didn't even inquire about an upgrade.

[mth123]

And you don't think the Reds are capable of replacing those player? The only player that will be tough to replace is Votto and he is still under their control for another 3 years. The Reds could do it via trade, in house development, or FA signing to replace these guys.

Getting to the playoffs is half the battle. Fluky things can happen when you make it to the playoffs. Your team can forget how to hit of forget how to field the ball. The ball can take funny bounces and one guy can continue a century's worth of losing.

The key to winning a WS title is to build a solid organization and take advantage of getting hot at the right time. How many times have the prohibitive favorites fallen short in the playoffs? To want or demand the WS is a little overboard if you ask me.

I don't thnk the Reds will have the the money available by then to replace them with vets of similar caliber and I don't think any of the in house guys can fill their shoes. I do think that the Reds have several candidates at those positions who are likely to have major league careers of some type, but, even with their flaws, Rolen and Phillips are key cogs and there will be a drop off when they are gone.

[REDREAD]

A lot of people seem to think that making the playoffs is success. I would like to hear more from those people. Though I can also see their point, I think I am aiming a little higher on this lol.

I voted for just staying in contention and having meaningful games until the end. A lot went right for last year's team. They are in a good position to win the division title, but maybe this year there will be a few bumps in the road.
I don't want to set myself up to be disappointed if the team ends up just missing the playoffs. Let's just be realistic.. the way the system is set up, it's almost impossible for a team like the Reds to win a World Series.. Let's say the Reds do win their division..it's going to be brutal getting past Phildelphia and whoever wins the AL ... Sure, it's possible, but if you define success as winning a pennant, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.