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View Poll Results: Who will be the LF over the next four or five seasons?

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  • David Sappelt

    24 48.00%
  • Yonder Alonso

    10 20.00%
  • Juan Francisco

    1 2.00%
  • Chris Heisey

    7 14.00%
  • Todd Frazier

    2 4.00%
  • Other (Platoon? acquisition? surprise?)

    6 12.00%
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Thread: LF of the future

  1. #46
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    1. Sappelt has plus range in center field. That translates incredibly well to left field. So range wise, I imagine they are very similar.

    2. Kyle McColloch was first round talent too, but he isn't anymore. Likewise, is Chris Heisey a 17th round talent now compared to when he was drafted? Draft status years ago (for both) means very little to the conversation to their current skills.

    3. Guys progress at different ages. Crawford was clearly the better player at younger ages, but that doesn't mean he will continue to be. Sappelt at 22 was nothing close to the same player as Sappelt at 23.

    Lets look at their skills.

    Defense - Range wise, I would honestly say they are close to even. Arm wise, Sappelt isn't on the same level.

    Base running - Sappelt isn't on the same level.

    Speed - Sappelt is a notch below, but he is an above average speed guy.

    Hitting ability (average) - Crawford is a career .296 hitter, peaking at .315. That is pretty strong. Is Sappelt a .300 guy? Is he close to it? I think he could be.

    Hitting ability (power) - Crawford is a career .444 slugger and has never hit 20 HR's in a season, and averages just 14 per 162 games. I think Sappelt has 15-20 HR power, so I don't think there is a distinct advantage here.

    Plate discipline - Crawford has a career 2.62 K/BB rate in the majors. In the minors it was just over 3.00. Sappelt is at 1.96 in the minors. He of course started in the minors at an older age, but I see his discipline being at least on par, if not better than Crawford in the majors.

    Contact rate - Crawford has a MLB career K rate of 14.3%, with a minor league one of 16.6%. Sappelt has a minor league K rate of 13.4% (K/PA). I don't see a distinct advantage here.

    So is Crawford better? Yeah, he probably is. But is he marginally better across the board? I am not so sure.
    The difference is that you are saying that Crawford is x, and Sappelt could be close to x. And a lot of your comparisons are Sappelt in the minors vs Crawford in the majors.

    I think this is an extremely aggressive comparison. IMO, way too aggressive. Sappelt wasn't on the radar last year at this time. Had a breakout year and still didn't even make the BA Top 10 Reds prospect list and came in at #10 on the RZ list. Blows up in ST and now his skillset compares to one of the best players in the game? And the guy hasn't even had 125 PAs above AA?

    Wow.

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  3. #47
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The difference is that you are saying that Crawford is x, and Sappelt could be close to x. And a lot of your comparisons are Sappelt in the minors vs Crawford in the majors.

    I think this is an extremely aggressive comparison. IMO, way too aggressive. Sappelt wasn't on the radar last year at this time. Had a breakout year and still didn't even make the BA Top 10 Reds prospect list and came in at #10 on the RZ list. Blows up in ST and now his skillset compares to one of the best players in the game? And the guy hasn't even had 125 PAs above AA?

    Wow.
    Quit looking at what he did and look at what he does. What are his skills right now? I don't care what they were before 2010. Heck, I don't even care much what they were then either. What are they today? Here is what we know, from scouts, from this spring. His hit tool is a 60, which is above avearge. His defense is above average (even with his blips in ST).

    Those were from scouts who watched him this spring. So really, now we are just looking at his power/plate discipline as the "sticking" points.

    Now I will give you that I don't think Sappelts full skills are on par across the board, but I think mostly they are pretty close.

  4. #48
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Quit looking at what he did and look at what he does. What are his skills right now? I don't care what they were before 2010. Heck, I don't even care much what they were then either. What are they today? Here is what we know, from scouts, from this spring. His hit tool is a 60, which is above avearge. His defense is above average (even with his blips in ST).

    Those were from scouts who watched him this spring. So really, now we are just looking at his power/plate discipline as the "sticking" points.

    Now I will give you that I don't think Sappelts full skills are on par across the board, but I think mostly they are pretty close.
    Scouts who saw a guy get 50 or so PAs in ST are putting his skills on par with Crawford? I noticed OBM make this post earlier today, but it's funny how we see this when defending the Reds pitching yet don't put it in play when talking up Heisey and Sappelt.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...0&postcount=20

    Has Sappelt even faced any top pitchers in ST?

  5. #49
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Scouts who saw a guy get 50 or so PAs in ST are putting his skills on par with Crawford? I noticed OBM make this post earlier today, but it's funny how we see this when defending the Reds pitching yet don't put it in play when talking up Heisey and Sappelt.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...0&postcount=20

    Has Sappelt even faced any top pitchers in ST?
    Scouts are saying his hit tool is above average and so is his range. You seem to believe that there is absolutely no projection involved in baseball. Either you have done it or you can't until you have. It doesn't quite work that way. Sappelt doesn't need to have faced top pitchers in ST for scouts to grade his hit tool. And sure, he probably has faced some top pitchers in ST. He played quite a bit.

  6. #50
    Member GOYA's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Quit looking at what he did and look at what he does. What are his skills right now? I don't care what they were before 2010.
    Then why do you care what Carl Crawford did before 2010?

    You want to use Crawford's season average of HRs hit but not his 19 from 2010. Sappelt hit 10 HRs in 2010 and want to project that he adds 50% to that. Against much better pitchers? Sappelt got 9 of his 10 against AA pitching.

  7. #51
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Scouts are saying his hit tool is above average and so is his range. You seem to believe that there is absolutely no projection involved in baseball. Either you have done it or you can't until you have. It doesn't quite work that way. Sappelt doesn't need to have faced top pitchers in ST for scouts to grade his hit tool. And sure, he probably has faced some top pitchers in ST. He played quite a bit.
    Of course there is projection in baseball. CC is one great example of someone who fit that projection mold.

  8. #52
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    Re: LF of the future

    To me, Alonso is the only player with the stick to start in LF on a playoff team. Unfortunately, he also has the most questions surrounding his ability to play the position defensively. I see Heisey and Sappelt as 4th OFs, and Francisco and Frazier as super subs.

    In summary, Id put Alonso ahead of anyone on this list as the LF of the next five years, but I would not be surprised if it ended up being someone not on this list (or the current 40-man for that matter).
    Go BLUE!!!

  9. #53
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    Re: LF of the future

    Sappelt. Team needs a leadoff hitter, there's going to be plenty of power elsewhere in the lineup, and he's good defensively (which matters to Jocketty). Not just the best fit, but there's a good chance he's the best all-around player, too.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #54
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    Then why do you care what Carl Crawford did before 2010?

    You want to use Crawford's season average of HRs hit but not his 19 from 2010. Sappelt hit 10 HRs in 2010 and want to project that he adds 50% to that. Against much better pitchers? Sappelt got 9 of his 10 against AA pitching.
    Crawford's top HR season isn't much different than his season average. I don't really think its a big deal here.

    As for Sappelts power, between age and another 100 PA (that he will get by playing in the majors longer season), I think he can add a handful of HR's in the majors.

  11. #55
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Sappelt. Team needs a leadoff hitter, there's going to be plenty of power elsewhere in the lineup, and he's good defensively (which matters to Jocketty). Not just the best fit, but there's a good chance he's the best all-around player, too.
    I agree with the premise and hope that you're right. I'm just not sure if I believe he has the bat to stick in LF. I think getting the best bats in your lineup are more important than slotting someone in because of the batting order. Not saying the LF has to hit 30 HR, but I do question whether Sappelt's defensive value is high enough (in LF) to keep his bat in the everyday lineup for a playoff team. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm seeing flashes of Chris Heisey in the summer of '09.
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #56
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: LF of the future

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    Crawford hit 19 last year. I just don't see Sappelt ever hitting 19.
    I can see it, Sapp hit what 10 last season and in 2 home parks where his swing wasn't conducive to getting the loft necessary. You should know better than most that the guys who hit alot of HR's in Louisville (and Carolina, with those towers of wood all around the OF) are guys who have more upper cut based swings than Sappelt has. In his prime in GABP (not to mention this division), yeah I can definitely see it. And in the big parks he is gonna eat up those gaps. As long as he maintains some semblance of selectivity/discipline and keeps his current mechanics I like him to be an absolutely pivotal player and he really only can fill one spot for the next 4+ years or so, LF.

    Don't think for a moment that after what he has done with his game he is gonna be denied for much longer and then once he makes the team good luck getting him out of the lineup. I wish I had known sooner the kid had so much determination and ability to adapt I would have been on the bandwagon then. Perhaps he has a weakness that S/T didn't uncover but I'm now willing to bet that won't stand in his way if and when we come to that bridge. Guys like he and Cozart & Heisey really make me further appreciate the drafting and development the Reds are doing these days, I need to take a step back and give them more benefit of the doubt. Like Todd Frazier (a guy I have always championed) they keep drafting guys with high work ethics and competitive spirit who turn good talent into phenomenal skills.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 03-30-2011 at 10:19 AM.
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