The remaining 35 - who will stay?

[Kc61]

Locks (19) - Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Renteria, Cairo.
Hanigan, Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce, Heisey
Bailey, Arroyo, Volquez, Wood
Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Bray

Injured (2) - Cueto, Hernandez

Questions (14) - Francisco, Valaika, Mesoraco, Miller
Hermida, Lewis, Sappelt
Leake, Maloney, Lecure
Ondrusek, Willis, Burton, Arredondo.

Name the six guys, in addition to the locks, who will go north opening day. Three or four will be pitchers. One a catcher. One an outfielder.

I select Hernandez, Lewis, Leake, Ondrusek, Willis, and Lecure.

If the Reds go with only 11 pitchers to start, then Francisco replaces Leake to begin.

Other views?

[Gallen5862]

Could Arredondo start the year on the DL? That would make room for someone else to make the 25 man roster.

[OesterPoster]

Marty mentioned that Dusty said he's going with 12 pitches (most probably) to start the year and for awhile after Opening Day.

Volquez, Arroyo, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Cordero, Chapman, Masset, Bray, Ondrusek, Willis are the 11 (my opinion). Number 12 is either Lecure, Maloney, or Burton.

Cueto and Arredondo start out on the DL.

[Reds1]

I vote Hermida to get the last OF spot, but I love this Sappelt

I also believe Burton and LeCure make this team and I might go out on a limb and say LeCure could get a start, but I know early you don't really need a 5th starter so there is too many variables to guess on that.

I forogot about Willis - I think they find room, but if you say they only take 11 pitchers it depends on options and I don't know the status on all those. What a great problem to have. Ondrusek might be the odd man out and he ended up doing very well last year.

I might have to go see some AAA games that team is going to rock.

[cinreds21]

Willis has struggled lately, including today. 6 walks in his last 4IP. Unless the Reds REALLY want him on the team, I don't see why to keep him up.
Ondrusek should make the team, he deserves it in my opinion.

[mth123]

Locks (19) - Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Renteria, Cairo.
Hanigan, Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce, Heisey
Bailey, Arroyo, Volquez, Wood
Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Bray

Injured (2) - Cueto, Hernandez

Questions (14) - Francisco, Valaika, Mesoraco, Miller
Hermida, Lewis, Sappelt
Leake, Maloney, Lecure
Ondrusek, Willis, Burton, Arredondo.

Name the six guys, in addition to the locks, who will go north opening day. Three or four will be pitchers. One a catcher. One an outfielder.

I select Hernandez, Lewis, Leake, Ondrusek, Willis, and Lecure.

If the Reds go with only 11 pitchers to start, then Francisco replaces Leake to begin.

Other views?

Agreed. My only question is at the end of the pen. 2 of Ondrusek, Burton and Lecure make it with the other the odd man out. Arredondo opens on the DL.

[757690]

Willis is not a lock according to Dusty...


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...ontrelles-day/

“When he has a good outing, it increases his odds,” Baker said. “When he has a bad outing, it decreases his odds.”

[cinreds21]

See. Told you

[mth123]

With Homer's injury and Lecure likely to start on April 9, I'm guessing the Reds now open with 11 Pitchers with Lecure in AAA getting a couple starts (March 30 and April 4) to stretch him out. That leaves room for another position player. I doubt the Reds would add some one not on the 40 man for 9 days and have to expose a player. I'm guessing:

11 Pitchers
Volquez, Arroyo, Wood, Leake, Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Burton, Bray, Ondrusek and Willis

2 Catchers

Hanigan, Hernandez

7 Infielders

Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Renteria, Cairo, Francisco

5 Outfielders

Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Heisey, Lewis

3 DL

Cueto, Bailey, Arredondo

Lecure comes up April 9. If none of the position players is banged-up, Francisco probably goes down, but the Reds just may rotate guys like Cairo, Renteria, Lewis etc on the DL if guys are even a little banged-up. I'd like to find a way for Francisco to be up all year and the 1st option for the 45 or so starts needed at 3B to keep Rolen healthy and productive. Cairo can PH and play a little 2B on the few days Phillips sits.

[Big Klu]

With Homer's injury and Lecure likely to start on April 9, I'm guessing the Reds now open with 11 Pitchers with Lecure in AAA getting a couple starts (March 30 and maybe one start in AAA on April 4) to stretch him out. That leaves room for another position player. I doubt the Reds would add some one not on the 40 man for 9 days and have to expose a player. I'm guessing:

11 Pitchers
Volquez, Arroyo, Wood, Leake, Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Burton, Bray, Ondrusek and Willis

2 Catchers

Hanigan, Hernandez

7 Infielders

Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Renteria, Cairo, Francisco

5 Outfielders

Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Heisey, Lewis

3 DL

Cueto, Bailey, Arredondo

Lecure comes up April 9. If none of the position players is banged-up, Francisco probably goes down, but the Reds just may rotate guys like Cairo, Renteria, Lewis etc on the DL if guys are even a little banged-up. I'd like to find a way for Francisco to be up all year and the 1st option for the 45 or so starts needed at 3B to keep Rolen healthy and productive. Cairo can PH and play a little 2B on the few days Phillips sits.

I may go with Maloney instead of Willis, and I only allow Francisco to stay if he agrees to wear a real baseball number instead of #64. He's a 3B, not an OG. :

[mth123]

I may go with Maloney instead of Willis, and I only allow Francisco to stay if he agrees to wear a real baseball number instead of #64. He's a 3B, not an OG. :

The Reds are already down to their 6th and 7th options for the rotation. Maloney needs to be starting in AAA to be stretched out if another is needed. At this point, with 2 guys down, that is probably more important than the last man on the staff role.

Agree on getting JF a lower number.

[Kc61]

With Homer's injury and Lecure likely to start on April 9, I'm guessing the Reds now open with 11 Pitchers with Lecure in AAA getting a couple starts (March 30 and April 4) to stretch him out. That leaves room for another position player. I doubt the Reds would add some one not on the 40 man for 9 days and have to expose a player. I'm guessing:

11 Pitchers
Volquez, Arroyo, Wood, Leake, Cordero, Masset, Chapman, Burton, Bray, Ondrusek and Willis

2 Catchers

Hanigan, Hernandez

7 Infielders

Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Renteria, Cairo, Francisco

5 Outfielders

Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, Heisey, Lewis

3 DL

Cueto, Bailey, Arredondo

Lecure comes up April 9. If none of the position players is banged-up, Francisco probably goes down, but the Reds just may rotate guys like Cairo, Renteria, Lewis etc on the DL if guys are even a little banged-up. I'd like to find a way for Francisco to be up all year and the 1st option for the 45 or so starts needed at 3B to keep Rolen healthy and productive. Cairo can PH and play a little 2B on the few days Phillips sits.

Probably right on target.

Only caveat to me is that Willis has to pitch reasonably well in his next spring outing.

With the extra room on the pitching staff due to injuries, Willis' chances may have improved by default. But he hasn't pitched well of late and I'm not certain he will make it.

Reds could put Maloney in long relief or could recall someone like Jordan Smith if Dontrelle struggles again his next outing.

Otherwise, it's hard to argue with this analysis of the situation.

[mth123]

Probably right on target.

Only caveat to me is that Willis has to pitch reasonably well in his next spring outing.

With the extra room on the pitching staff due to injuries, Willis' chances may have improved by default. But he hasn't pitched well of late and I'm not certain he will make it.

Reds could put Maloney in long relief or could recall someone like Jordan Smith if Dontrelle struggles again his next outing.

Otherwise, it's hard to argue with this analysis of the situation.

I'm not thrilled with Willis either, but with the starters down and Arroyo still iffy with mono (no matter what he says), Maloney needs to stay stretched out. Most of the remaining depth that the Reds have is in relief and not in guys who can come up and plug a hole in the rotation. I'm not comfortable with guys like Klinker and Reineke. I think the Reds should look outside the organization. Someone mentioned Kevin Slowey in another thread. Maybe the Reds should pursue that (I like Glenn Perkins too). If the Twins are looking for more of a middle relief arm, the Reds should think about it. The Twins also need some IF depth. If the Reds could work a deal involving Burton and Valaika for some one like Slowey they should do it. If they could add a lower level guy or a couple excess pen arms and get Perkins too, they should do it.

I'd stick Slowey in the rotation, replace Burton with Lecure, cut Willis loose and stick Perkins in that 3rd lefty role. The Reds are going to need relievers that can go more than one inning because I don't see anybody in the rotation going deep into games (maybe Wood). Volquez' control means he'll probably be at 100 pitches in the 5th or 6th most days, Arroyo's mono will hold him back and Leake and Lecure likely won't make it through line-ups more than twice successfully. The Reds are going to need guys in the pen who can go 2 or 3 innings and do it 2 or 3 times per week. Lecure in the pen would give them some "length" out there while Maloney stays stretched out in AAA. If the Reds need to change things up and bring up to more of a short reliever, Jordan Smith is still around and I really think they can get some use out of Jerry Gil at some point. Daryl Thompson may be a sleeper for the pen as well. If the Reds can convert Burton to a guy who can provide more innings, they should go for it IMO.

[Kc61]

Reds down to thirty now.

Valaika, Mesoraco, and Sappelt go to AAA. I'm assuming that the other two "cuts" are Cueto and Bailey going to the DL.

Where does that lead us?

Because of injuries, I think we currently have only 18 locks. Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Renteria, Cairo in the infield. Heisey, Stubbs, Gomes, Bruce outfield. Hanigan catching. Leake, Volquez and Wood in the rotation. Cordero, Chapman, Masset, and Bray relief pitching.

Injured and still possible for opening day are two more -- Arroyo and Hernandez. Let's assume they both are able to go and make the roster. That makes 20 set roster spots.
That leaves ten remaining players for five spots.

Lecure, Ondrusek, Maloney, Willis, Burton, Arredondo, Lewis, Hermida, Francisco and Miller remain.

mth has correctly noted that Lecure could go to AAA to prepare for an April 9 start with the Reds. I also assume Arredondo will go on the DL and rehab. Given the pitching openings, I also think that Ondrusek and Burton are near locks to go north. Corky should go down if Hernandez is healthy.

So that leaves five players for three openings.

Willis, Maloney, Lewis, Hermida and Francisco for three openings.

[757690]

I think Kevin Slowey is under-rated, but I'm not sure he's a good fit for the Reds.

He's an extreme flyball pitcher, .66 career GB/FB... Arroyo's and Harang's are around 1 for context, who has trouble going past the 6th inning. He went less than 6 in almost half of his starts last year, and went past 6 in only 8 of them... and last year was his best year in terms of innings.

He also makes $2.7M this year, which may not be huge, but when combined with the talent needed to get him, makes him seem expensive for not much of an upgrade over what the Reds already have.