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Thread: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

  1. #1
    Smells Like Teen Spirit jmcclain19's Avatar
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    The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    So since the Brewers are considered, along with the Cardinals, the biggest threat to the Reds chances to repeat in 2011, I'd like to chat a bit about the Brew Crew.

    I don't get the Brewers love this off season. I really don't. Both "stud" pitchers they traded for in the off season are injured. Grienke's accident has been mentioned all around the forum and Marcum has gone all spring talking about shoulder issues - a huge red flag for the future.

    Outside of the top of the rotation they are the same team that gave up 800 runs last season, sans excellent defending SS. The whole left side of the field might as well show up and play with oven mitts as they'll have about the same fielding success as they would with the leather.

    Two of their best bats at 2B & RF have terrible injury histories. Their bullpen is smoke and mirrors and they have a current closer with 5 minutes of experience in the big leagues.

    Fielder is ready to leave town at the end of the season and certainly will be distracting with trade talks if the team has any sort of hiccup early on.

    And Braun has seen his power numbers drop off every year for the past four. If he keeps on his current slugging and OPS trendline, he'll basically be a younger Raul Ibanez at the conclusion of 2011.

    Count me in as having them listed as the biggest flop of 2011.

    Anyone else think otherwise?

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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    I read an article the other day that many scouts believe the same. They think they are way overated and believe they will flop this season. I kinda do too. They don't seem to have much depth at all in pitching and defensively they just aren't very good.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    I think there is a Bedard Curse at work. RZ grovels over available pitcher, wants Reds to do everything in power to obtain pitcher, does not obtain pitcher, team obtaining pitcher underachieves, pitcher never reaches status that groveling indicated he would.

    The Brewers are looking more and more like the 2000-2007 Reds--weak/poor pitching, poor D, lots of offense driven by power, fighting for the .500 mark moreso than pennants
    Can't win with 'em

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    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    It's funny, because I've been checking out the forums at brewerfan.net, and they have an entire thread dedicated to that report of scouts calling the Brewers "awful". You won't find too many of their fans with a rational expectation. You will find quite a few fans who think those most have been comments made by Pirates' scouts.

    They talk about their offense and how many runs they'll score, but that defense is abysmal. Think about how many extra pitches their staff will need to make because Yuni booted a grounder or Braun couldn't get to a fly ball. That adds up over the course of a season.

    Also, they've got 5 guys starting the year on the DL. LuCroy, their projected starting catcher, Greinke, Corey Hart, and relievers Latroy Hawkins and Manny Parra. In the first month of their season, they've got the Reds 6 times, Philly 3 times, and Atlanta 4 times. They've also got a bunch of games against the Cubs, Pirates, and Astros. Those are the games I'm most interested in. Can the Brewers win 2 out of 3 consistently against the teams who are supposed to be below them in the standings?

    Here's a link to the brewerfan.net wins projection thread for 2011:
    http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/t...e-2011-Brewers

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcclain19 View Post
    So since the Brewers are considered, along with the Cardinals, the biggest threat to the Reds chances to repeat in 2011, I'd like to chat a bit about the Brew Crew.

    I don't get the Brewers love this off season. I really don't. Both "stud" pitchers they traded for in the off season are injured. Grienke's accident has been mentioned all around the forum and Marcum has gone all spring talking about shoulder issues - a huge red flag for the future.

    Outside of the top of the rotation they are the same team that gave up 800 runs last season, sans excellent defending SS. The whole left side of the field might as well show up and play with oven mitts as they'll have about the same fielding success as they would with the leather.

    Two of their best bats at 2B & RF have terrible injury histories. Their bullpen is smoke and mirrors and they have a current closer with 5 minutes of experience in the big leagues.

    Fielder is ready to leave town at the end of the season and certainly will be distracting with trade talks if the team has any sort of hiccup early on.

    And Braun has seen his power numbers drop off every year for the past four. If he keeps on his current slugging and OPS trendline, he'll basically be a younger Raul Ibanez at the conclusion of 2011.

    Count me in as having them listed as the biggest flop of 2011.

    Anyone else think otherwise?
    I can see why people think they are a favorite to win the division. Last year they hit well and the consensus was that all they needed was pitching. They went out and got it. They have a starter on the DL but we have two. I realize they have defensive and bullpen issues but they may have the hitting to make up for it.

    I do agree that Fielder's contract may be an issue. Milwaukee is not unlike Cincinnati in that it's a relatively small city. If the NFL lockout drags on to July, writers and fans who may have been normally distracted by the Packers could turn their attention to Fielder's situation.
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    Highly motivated owner in Milwaukee. Potentially great offense. Potentially 2 aces (I see Gallardo having a good year), and if Marcum is healthy he'll be tough too. I like Narveson better than most. On defense, they'll need to make the routine play. I think the key is their bullpen. Can Axford hold together? Will Saito be healthy?

    High ceiling team with an owner who wants to go for it in 2011, so I would never count them out.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    As long as they have Braun and Fielder, along with solid HR hitters like Hart, Weeks, and McGehee, they can't be counted out.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    I don't really know what to expect out of the Brewers. I don't know what to expect out of Grienke this year. Will he be the pitcher he was in 2009? I also have to think that their defense will be awful this year. If you subscribe to the importance of defense theory they are a good case study. They will have a good offense and some good pitching but a poor defense. Acutally both Milwaukee and St. Louis will test the important of defense.

    I can see one of two options with the Brewers. They are either blow up come June or are in the hunt until the final days of the season. I don't expect a mediocre season out of them.

  10. #9
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    1) their injuries are documented in the first post

    2) Hart has a history of up & down years. He is the new Aubrey Huff! Weeks has a long history of injuries & had his best year ever last year. If Fielder & Braun have good years it could be offset by fallbacks by Hart & Weeks.

    3) The Brewers are quite weak at SS & CF. The 'robbed Peter to pay Paul' a bit in the Greinke trade.

    4) Their pen was fine last year but we have all seen volatility in bullpens. The lack of a track record by several Brewers relievers would give me pause as a Brewers fan.

    5) I agree that their defense is really really bad.

    I personally feel they will be an above .500 team but not be as good as predicted. I'll say 86-76. Unfortunately thats a tick above what I have for the Reds. I think the keys are the injuries to Greinke, Marcum, Cueto & Bailey. who is really hurt & who is just going to miss a couple starts?
    .

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    I think the pitching is better than we're giving credit for. Yeah, Greinke is hurt, but it isn't an arm problem so he'll be back. Marcum is pitching, but his shoulder is a bigger concern. If they are all healthy though, their number 4 guy (Wolf) is about equal to our top gun (Arroyo). The Reds could have guys who surpass them, but it would mean having guys perform better or for longer stretches than they ever had as opposed to Milwaukee's guys just matching their established levels. I also prefer Milwaukee's offense to the Reds (though Francisco as a caddy for Rolen makes me feel a lot better if it lasts). The knock on Milwaukee's defense is true, but they really only need to realize that any run of the mill minor league glove man plugged in at SS would make then pretty solid up the middle with Weeks, Gomez and Lucroy. Fielder and Hart are better than most realize. 3B is a problem and I'm iffy on Braun, but a change at SS could make a lot of difference. They have enough pop to carry a glove man. Make Betancourt a bench player (maybe as a defender at 3B late in games), let Morgan caddy for Braun when the team has a lead and the defense won't kill them. They won't come close to the Reds in that area no matter what they do, but the quality of their top 4 is pretty nice if they stay healthy that and a bunch of Home Runs forgives a lot of sins.

    The main reason I like Milwaukee though, is that I think the teams are close now, but they'll go out at the deadline and try to get what they need. I'm not convinced the Reds are willing at this point.
    Last edited by mth123; 03-30-2011 at 07:30 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the pitching is better than we're giving credit for. Yeah, Greinke is hurt, but it isn't an arm problem so he'll be back. Marcum is pitching, but his shoulder is a bigger concern. If they are all healthy though, their number 4 guy (Wolf) is about equal to our top gun (Arroyo). The Reds could have guys who surpass them, but it would mean having guys perform better or for longer stretches than they ever had as opposed to Milwaukee's guys just matching their established levels. I also prefer Milwaukee's offense to the Reds (though Francisco as a caddy for Rolen makes me feel a lot better if it lasts). The knock on Milwaukee's defense is true, but they really only need to realize that any run of the mill minor league glove man plugged in at SS would make then pretty solid up the middle with Weeks, Gomez and Lucroy. Fielder and Hart are better than most realize. 3B is a problem and I'm iffy on Braun, but a change at SS could make a lot of difference. They have enough pop to carry a glove man. Make Betancourt a bench player (maybe as a defender at 3B late in games), let Morgan caddy for Braun when the team has a lead and the defense won't kill them. They won't come close to the Reds in that area no matter what they do, but the quality of their top 4 is pretty nice if they stay healthy that and a bunch of Home Runs forgives a lot of sins.

    The main reason I like Milwaukee though, is that I think the teams are close now, but they'll go out at the deadline and try to get what they need. I'm not convinced the Reds are willing at this point.
    Solid analysis.

    But I'm not sure the Brewers can get help if they need it. They are ranked by many to have the worst (#30) farm systems in the majors.

    "The cupboard is bare" is how one evaluator described the Brewers farm system. They have zero top 100 prospects. Zero. Even the Reds back in Schott days always had at least one.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Solid analysis.

    But I'm not sure the Brewers can get help if they need it. They are ranked by many to have the worst (#30) farm systems in the majors.

    "The cupboard is bare" is how one evaluator described the Brewers farm system. They have zero top 100 prospects. Zero. Even the Reds back in Schott days always had at least one.
    They'll take on a Salary for a couple months and improve their team. Lots of good players were dealt for Salary relief. Maybe they won't get Carpenter at the deadline, but they'll find a guy owed $5 or $6 Million for the last couple months of his deal that some team is dying to move and they'll go after that player for a package of fringe youth and make a short term improvement. That's all they need to do really.

    Just what did the Reds get for Adam Dunn again?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    I think they really underacheived last season. I expect a bounceback and for them to be the Reds' toughest challenger this season.

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    They'll take on a Salary for a couple months and improve their team. Lots of good players were dealt for Salary relief. Maybe they won't get Carpenter at the deadline, but they'll find a guy owed $5 or $6 Million for the last couple months of his deal that some team is dying to move and they'll go after that player for a package of fringe youth and make a short term improvement. That's all they need to do really.

    Just what did the Reds get for Adam Dunn again?
    But that is all they can do. While the Reds can offer actual real prospects. I can't see how that is an advantage for the Brewers.

    Jocketty has a history of making deadline deals, in fact, he seems to prefer them to off season deals. He made a solid offer to get Lee last year, so I don't undertand why you think the Reds are less likely to make a move at the deadline this year.

    And for the record, the Brewers currently couldn't match the Owings/Buck/Castillo offer that the Reds got for Dunn. Their farm system is that bad.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The 2011 Milwaukee Brewers

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But that is all they can do. While the Reds can offer actual real prospects. I can't see how that is an advantage for the Brewers.

    Jocketty has a history of making deadline deals, in fact, he seems to prefer them to off season deals. He made a solid offer to get Lee last year, so I don't undertand why you think the Reds are less likely to make a move at the deadline this year.

    And for the record, the Brewers currently couldn't match the Owings/Buck/Castillo offer that the Reds got for Dunn. Their farm system is that bad.
    The Reds can offer real prospects. but, IMO, they won't take on the salary that the real prospects could garner. I just see the Brewers more willing to improve by addition. The offset is that the Reds could improve from AAA, but I wonder how much of a shot guys like Mesoraco and Cozart would get to contribute with guys like Ramon and Renteria in the way. The team would be better off w/o a couple of the vets, drawing on its AAA talent to fill out the roster and having that payflex for later if they weren't going to use it to upgrade now.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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