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Thread: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

  1. #16
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    "One of the best starters in the league" could be a little much. I think our views of pitching may have been skewed in Harang's heyday due to what we were comparing him to. Kind of like the somewhat attractive girl at the bar with the ugly friends. Maybe he looked a bit better because he was hanging out with Eric Milton and Brandon Claussen.

    3 seasons with an ERA under 4.21 in his career while he pitched most of his career against the NL Central, none under 3.73. Is that what we would really call a top pitcher?

    I liked the guy, no doubt, but I'm not sure if referring to him in that way is entirely accurate.
    During those three seasons he was the only NL pitcher to have an ERA lower than 4 and at least 200K's all three seasons. An argument could have been made that he was the best pitcher in the league for those three years.

    And even if Law was correct, his argument was what was ridiculed the most. He said that Harang's numbers were inflated because he faced the Pirates so many times.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  3. #17
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    He may not have been Cy Young, but at the same time he led the league in strikeouts, wins and complete games the same time Law was saying he was a #4 starter. It's pretty clear Law was the guy who screwed up on that one.
    Here's what he actually said:

    Anyway, Harang's not an ace, just a good innings-eater, would be a 3/4 on a contending club.
    One can say that he said #4, or one could say that he said that he would be a #3 on the better teams in baseball. Either way, I'm not sure that anyone can really complain too much about what he said.

    I think the quote got way overhyped. I like reading his stuff and like that he is willing to say bold stuff. No one is going to nail every single assessment or prediction. He may end up being wrong on Hamilton and he may not have nailed Harang to a tee, but I think it is a little early to critique exactly what he said on the guy since it is still way early.

  4. #18
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Anyone who makes their living by projecting draft picks-many of whom are just out of HS-and doesn't shy away from giving his opinion about all players (not just the 19 yo ARODS) is going to be wrong a lot.

    Keith Law is not a moron.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Anyone who makes their living by projecting draft picks-many of whom are just out of HS-and doesn't shy away from giving his opinion about all players (not just the 19 yo ARODS) is going to be wrong a lot.

    Keith Law is not a moron.
    I personally think Law isn't any worse than the other draft day experts. But I do have two problems with him.

    1) He tries too hard to make controversial statements so that he can stand out from the rest of the draft day crowd.

    2) He speaks as if he is the one and only expert on these matters.

    Guys like Sickels and Goldstein always use language that makes it clear that this is just their opinion and they could be wrong. Not so much with Law.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #20
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    I have a feeling that KLaw is one of those guys you hate until you meet him in person and realize how he is irl.

  7. #21
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    I'd let Hamilton prove that he can hit advanced pitching before I declared Law wrong. I've heard more than one scout say that he gets the bat knocked of his hands so-to-speak quite often.

    If he ends up hitting like Janish, how we assess his hitting ability?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Billy Hamilton also thought Cassiere had no Chey. Boy was he wrong.

  9. #23
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I personally think Law isn't any worse than the other draft day experts. But I do have two problems with him.

    1) He tries too hard to make controversial statements so that he can stand out from the rest of the draft day crowd.

    2) He speaks as if he is the one and only expert on these matters.

    Guys like Sickels and Goldstein always use language that makes it clear that this is just their opinion and they could be wrong. Not so much with Law.
    I have no issue with a guy like Keith Law. And I tend to agree with what JoJo said earlier (may be the first time I ever agreed with him!) about the difficulty of the MLB draft. Lets be honest even the MLB teams have a tough enough time drafting players.

    What you said makes sense and I there is a problem with it. They really aren't held accountable for what they say. If you look at the Billy Hamilton pick and reaction by Law its a good 4 years or so before Hamilton would reach the major leagues. Are people really going to hold Law accountable for that? If you asked him about that Law could replay "I don't remember making that comment" or "That was 4 years ago."

  10. #24
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    I don't see how Billy Hamilton has proven anyone wrong at this point. It's way premature to be shoving plates of crow into people's faces.
    Championships Matter.
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  11. #25
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    I tweeted Keith Law yesterday a few times and he responded to me about Billy. He said it's hard to rate HS bats, and he has re-ranked him at #51?

    I asked him when he starts rethinking his thoughts on the draft and he said when he sees them for the first time in pro ball..sounds like BHam is starting to grow on him though.

    I give him props for responding to me and I think him ranking Hamilton at #51 is the equiv of "eating crow" for now, but if Hamilton doesn't pan out maybe he was right?
    Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7

  12. #26
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    It was just the smug way he answered the question (pretty much the same way he acts all the time). A Reds fan asked a legitimate question. Instead of breaking it down and explaining why he didn't think Billy Hamilton would ever be an effective offensive player, he just wrote the pick off as a reach and said: "He can run. He can't hit. Good luck."

    Wow, that's some deep insight there. And so far, Law's been way off base. No one is saying Billy Hamilton is definitely going to be a good MLB hitter -- heck, he's still in low-A ball. But Law was basically saying the pick was a reach and had nothing to back it up except some snide comment. I don't mind criticism, just bring something of substance to the table. If anything, that was a steal of a pick, not a reach.

  13. #27
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    His smart Aleck answers are about in line with how Hal Mccoy answers his mail. T J Simers as well. Do not get these guys who act like they have to be funny or condescending.

    No reason why Hamilton cannot hit like Jose Reyes as he progresses.

  14. #28
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger View Post
    His smart Aleck answers are about in line with how Hal Mccoy answers his mail. T J Simers as well. Do not get these guys who act like they have to be funny or condescending.

    No reason why Hamilton cannot hit like Jose Reyes as he progresses.
    I just don't see him having anywhere near the power Reyes has. Neither do scouts. The rest of their games? Sure, that could work. But I don't see Hamilton being a 15-20 HR guy like Reyes has shown to be.

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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Are you telling me Keith Law isn't perfect? Darn.

    Look, I like Keith because he seems to have a lot of connections around the league and a lot of info. I'm pretty sure he's been wrong on a lot of guys. But I'm also pretty sure he's been right about a lot of guys. I don't know why people take other 'experts' opinions so personally.

  16. #30
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Gack View Post
    Are you telling me Keith Law isn't perfect? Darn.

    Look, I like Keith because he seems to have a lot of connections around the league and a lot of info. I'm pretty sure he's been wrong on a lot of guys. But I'm also pretty sure he's been right about a lot of guys. I don't know why people take other 'experts' opinions so personally.
    Maybe it is because we are Reds fans, but for a while now he seems to always have bad things to say about the Reds. As for his comment on Billy Hamilton.... he was right at the time. The year he was drafted he hit .205 in the GCL and struck out in 26% of his plate appearances. Of course things have since changed some, but there are still PLENTY of people out there who question his bat and while I don't fully agree with them, I am far from sold on it either. You can see that there are things there that could be very good, but he has some bad going on in his swing too.


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