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Thread: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

  1. #46
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I wouldn't try to turn him into a Juan Pierre type hitter just yet. The guy does have some gap power from both sides when things are working right with his swing and he keeps his weight back. Unfortunately right now he simply doesn't keep his weight back often at all and is often out on his front foot.

    I would rather the Reds take him back to a RHH only before they tried to turn him into a slap hitter.
    I don't think being a Juan Pierre type is bad (not saying you do, but the way you say not yet, I get that impression). Even if BH has some gap power, I just don't see it ever being enough to really make a difference.

    For me, I want him to hit whichever way he can to get on base the most. If he had a slash line of .300/.380/.370, I'd be quite happy. Pierre had an ISO of .062 in the minors and a .067 in the bigs. BH's is .103, mostly because of his 3B's (he has 14 in 152 games, Pierre had 12 in 317 games).

    I guess the question is:
    Do you anticipate him having enough power for it to be worth him possibly not getting on base as much?

    My answer is no, I just want him to get on base.

    If you think he will have a bit more power, which it seems you do, then I completely understand your point.

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  3. #47
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Hamilton makes me think of Dodgers' prospect Dee Gordon:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...27&position=SS

    Scouts are all over the place in their assessment of him.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #48
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Hamilton makes me think of Dodgers' prospect Dee Gordon:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...27&position=SS

    Scouts are all over the place in their assessment of him.
    I think the comparisons are slightly off. The big difference between the two IMO is size. Tools wise, I agree that they are similar. But I think Hamilton has more power potential due to his size, which says a lot considering Hamilton is maybe a potential 40 power hitter. Dee Gordon is maybe 5'8" and 140 pounds. He isn't going to be getting any bigger either unless he gets fat. Billy Hamilton is about 6'1" and 160 pounds. He probably isn't going to get any bigger, but the height allows for a little more power potential.

  5. #49
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    I don't think being a Juan Pierre type is bad (not saying you do, but the way you say not yet, I get that impression). Even if BH has some gap power, I just don't see it ever being enough to really make a difference.

    For me, I want him to hit whichever way he can to get on base the most. If he had a slash line of .300/.380/.370, I'd be quite happy. Pierre had an ISO of .062 in the minors and a .067 in the bigs. BH's is .103, mostly because of his 3B's (he has 14 in 152 games, Pierre had 12 in 317 games).

    I guess the question is:
    Do you anticipate him having enough power for it to be worth him possibly not getting on base as much?

    My answer is no, I just want him to get on base.

    If you think he will have a bit more power, which it seems you do, then I completely understand your point.
    While there isn't exactly something wrong with the slash line above, I think that Hamilton could become more than that overall. If you attempt to turn him into a slap hitter, he probably could become a .350 OBP and a .350 SLG guy, but I don't know if he ever becomes much more than that. I would take my chances that he can develop into a .425 SLG guy by letting him learn to hit over the next 2-3 years before going down such a route where you try to retool his swing as a slap only type of guy.

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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    While there isn't exactly something wrong with the slash line above, I think that Hamilton could become more than that overall. If you attempt to turn him into a slap hitter, he probably could become a .350 OBP and a .350 SLG guy, but I don't know if he ever becomes much more than that. I would take my chances that he can develop into a .425 SLG guy by letting him learn to hit over the next 2-3 years before going down such a route where you try to retool his swing as a slap only type of guy.
    Fair enough...especially for a former three sport guy who can now just concentrate on baseball, and he's only 20. From a development standpoint, I think it continues to be important to monitor is progress at the plate from L/R.

  7. #51
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    From a development standpoint, I think it continues to be important to monitor is progress at the plate from L/R.
    We are in complete agreement here. I think it is too early to jump ship on him hitting left handed, because I see some promise out of that side every now and again. But, if say June rolls around next year and he still isn't showing much of anything other than a flash a few times a week of getting it as a left hander, I would begin to think about switching him back to a full time right hander.

  8. #52
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    Re: Remember what Keith Law said when Billy Hamilton was drafted?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    because I see some promise out of that side every now and again.
    And you know what the scouts will say:

    I saw it in him once, so I know it's in there! If only player development would find a way to get it out of him all the time!


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