Can't win with 'em
Can't win without 'em
How many games did the Cards win last season? I ask because I have trouble seeing them top that total. I'm guessing about 85? 85 wins likely won't win this division. Their starting rotatin is signifanctly worse w/o Waino, and their defense is worse despite being sub-par last season. Berkman may be an upgrade offensively, but I have my doubts as well.
None the less, love your optomisim, with out, why would anyone be a fan?
I believe the Redbirds were 86-76 last season, 5 below us.
This year's Cards are a different brand than most Cardinals teams we've seen. They're heavy on offense but very suspect on defense. They have a rotation that could potentially be great but definitely has question marks it it.
If you believe my friends over at BirdsOnTheBat, this team is more Tony LaRussa's brainchild than any team ever before. He'll probably feast or famine doing things his way, as it looks like he has most of the control in that organization with Jocketty out of the picture.
The second game, I really like Volquez vs. Figueroa. I see us having another 65% chance to win that game.
The finale will be tough, though. Myers pitched great vs. the Phillies and LeCure should not be starting IMO, when you could have Wood on normal rest. I see the Reds with about a 40% chance in this one. Multiply it all up and I see the Reds only having about a 17% chance for the sweep. I do like the Reds' chances of winning the series.
Hopefully the Astros give us a Sunday Special on Thursday afternoon and LeCure can give us six competitive innings before the bull-pen shuts them down.
I think they'll win some lop-sided games when all their pieces are rolling, but I feel like they're gonna struggle in close games with that defense. It really is pretty bad, especially if the opening series was any indicator.
Prior to Greinke & Marcum getting injured, nearly everyone in the Media was picking the Brewers. The pre-season stuff we all read just prior to opening day...that's where we saw a lot of Reds picks....but that was after the injuries.
94 and winning the division and the NLCS but falling in the WS to Toronto in 6
94 Reds / 86 Cards / 85 Pirates / 76 Cubs / 72 Brewers
According to this the Cards are still the favorites.:ughmamoru
Not that I'm counting them out but I think calling them the favorite is a reach.This is a pretty poor article.Dept is not likely going to win them the division.Their superstars are going to have to be superstars imo.
At BP, their Playoff Odds Report still has the Cards at 49.0%, Brewers at 30.9%, Reds at 28.6%, Cubs at 9.9% and Pirates/Stros under 1.0%.
PECOTA was not friendly to the Reds, seeing regression across the board. A number of Reds took a big step forward in 2010. Your view of the likely trajectory for this team depends on the degree to which you view those gains as true steps forward in talent vs. mere "good seasons" above what can be expected long term. In particular, PECOTA is bearish on Stubbs, Cueto, Rolen and the catchers. It even has Jay Bruce being 2 wins less productive.
FWIW, Joe Sheehan has the Reds in the World Series this year as does another former BPer Rany Jazayerli.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Of course, losing Wainwright does hurt, but the Cards have more depth in pitching this year than they did last year. We still have a 5 man rotation, that can be very good, and can be very bad. All in all... I like this team a lot better than the 2010 team.