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Thread: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

  1. #271
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Sure thing, but I think it would be fair to be somewhat disappointed if that's where he lands. Especially if it is closer to .800.
    If Bruce has just three more seasons like he did last year, he will be the most productive Reds first round draft pick since Barry Larkin.

    I know he had a lot of hype, but it's hard to be disappointed by a 5 win player.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  3. #272
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    April just doesn't seem to be his month. May is good to him though, and it's time to flip the calendars. Hopefully he hits about 8 long ones this month
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    FWIW, Fangraphs did a mini-study a month or two ago showing just how many guys broke in at 22 or 23, did well, and just pretty much stayed there. It's hardly a given that Bruce will continue to improve. We just need to appreciate that even an .800 to .850 OPS combined with his defense is still very productive.
    Productive but, ultimately, not worth the money being paid and, at .800 OPS, highly replaceable.
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Productive but, ultimately, not worth the money being paid and, at .800 OPS, highly replaceable.
    Last year 56 major leaguers had an .800 OPS or higher.

    1 Josh Hamilton*
    2 Miguel Cabrera
    3 Joey Votto*
    4 Albert Pujols
    5 Jose Bautista
    6 Paul Konerko
    7 Carlos Gonzalez*
    8 Troy Tulowitzki
    9 Matt Holliday
    10 Jayson Werth
    11 Adrian Beltre
    12 Robinson Cano*
    13 Adrian Gonzalez*
    14 Luke Scott*
    15 David Ortiz*
    16 Ryan Zimmerman
    17 Adam Dunn*
    18 Aubrey Huff*
    19 Shin-Soo Choo*
    20 Evan Longoria
    21 Dan Uggla
    22 Prince Fielder*
    23 Joe Mauer*
    24 Nick Swisher#
    25 Ryan Braun
    26 Corey Hart
    27 Kelly Johnson*
    28 Ryan Howard*
    29 Colby Rasmus*
    30 Billy Butler
    31 Andre Ethier*
    32 David Wright
    33 Scott Rolen
    34 Hanley Ramirez
    35 Carl Crawford*
    36 Jason Heyward*
    37 Alex Rodriguez
    38 Vernon Wells
    39 Jay Bruce*
    40 Mark Teixeira#
    41 Victor Martinez#
    42 Vladimir Guerrero
    43 Chase Utley*
    44 Rickie Weeks
    45 Brian McCann*
    46 Delmon Young
    47 Andres Torres#
    48 Carlos Quentin
    49 Hideki Matsui*
    50 Torii Hunter
    51 Alfonso Soriano
    52 Andrew McCutchen
    53 Stephen Drew*
    54 Martin Prado
    55 Nick Markakis*
    56 Casey McGehee

    How many of these guys were easily obtainable for little talent or a cheap contract this offseason? And how many of them provide the defensive production that Bruce provides?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If Bruce has just three more seasons like he did last year, he will be the most productive Reds first round draft pick since Barry Larkin.

    I know he had a lot of hype, but it's hard to be disappointed by a 5 win player.
    "5 win" while using an off the charts uzr which may or may not be totally accurate.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    "5 win" while using an off the charts uzr which may or may not be totally accurate.
    Fair enough. I completely understand the doubts about WAR.

    Looking only at offensive numbers, he was an All-Star caliber player last season, one of the top fifty hitters in the game. And out eyes tell us he's one of the best defensive RF in the game.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Productive but, ultimately, not worth the money being paid and, at .800 OPS, highly replaceable.
    If he produces at the rate he did last year, is absolutely, 100% worth the amount be paid. 5 win players go for around $20-$25M a year in the free agent market. The most Bruce will make in a season is $12M. And no, 5 win players are absolutely not "replaceable" for the Reds, as they don't have that kind of money to spend in free agency obviously.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    If he produces at the rate he did last year, is absolutely, 100% worth the amount be paid. 5 win players go for around $20-$25M a year in the free agent market. The most Bruce will make in a season is $12M. And no, 5 win players are absolutely not "replaceable" for the Reds, as they don't have that kind of money to spend in free agency obviously.
    Five wins, as edabbs pointed out, based in no small part on a very generous defensive rating -- and I'm bearish on exactly how much weight you can give defensive skill in these kinds of metrics.

    There were 56 major leaguers that had an OPS of .800 or higher. Break the number down -- there are only 254 starting players in the major leagues, so that means roughly 22% of all big league starters had an OPS of .800 or better. If you break it down to just outfielders, there are 25 guys on the list with an OPS over .800, which works out to 27% of all ML outfielders.

    That doesn't exactly scream "rare" to me.
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Five wins, as edabbs pointed out, based in no small part on a very generous defensive rating -- and I'm bearish on exactly how much weight you can give defensive skill in these kinds of metrics.

    There were 56 major leaguers that had an OPS of .800 or higher. Break the number down -- there are only 254 starting players in the major leagues, so that means roughly 22% of all big league starters had an OPS of .800 or better. If you break it down to just outfielders, there are 25 guys on the list with an OPS over .800, which works out to 27% of all ML outfielders.

    That doesn't exactly scream "rare" to me.
    So defense is given zero weighting. That's not really much of a compromise for someone that doesn't fully see merit with WAR.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    So defense is given zero weighting. That's not really much of a compromise for someone that doesn't fully see merit with WAR.
    I don't pretend to know what weight defense is to be given -- it's worth something, but it's worth is not nearly as quantifiable as offense. I understand WAR, but I find a certain amount of voodoo science is involved when you mix objective and verifiable with elements of the subjective. And, more to the point, I was merely responding to the assertion that a major league ballplayer who can OPS north of .800 is a rarity.
    Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 05-01-2011 at 02:59 PM.
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I don't pretend to know what weight defense is to be given -- it's worth something, but it's worth is not nearly as quantifiable as offense. I understand WAR, but I find a certain amount of voodoo science is involved when you mix objective and verifiable with elements of the subjective. And, more to the point, I was merely responding to the assertion that a major league ballplayer who can OPS north of .800 is a rarity.
    Regardless of how you want to quantify defense, a 23 year old that can OPS north of .800 while playing (considered by ANYONE who has seen him play) gold glove caliber defense, and at MINIMUM a top 5 RF'er in baseball, is absolutely, 100 % a rarity.

  13. #282
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Regardless of how you want to quantify defense, a 23 year old that can OPS north of .800 while playing (considered by ANYONE who has seen him play) gold glove caliber defense, and at MINIMUM a top 5 RF'er in baseball, is absolutely, 100 % a rarity.
    Agreed.
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I don't pretend to know what weight defense is to be given -- it's worth something, but it's worth is not nearly as quantifiable as offense. I understand WAR, but I find a certain amount of voodoo science is involved when you mix objective and verifiable with elements of the subjective. And, more to the point, I was merely responding to the assertion that a major league ballplayer who can OPS north of .800 is a rarity.
    That's not what the point was.

    It was always .800 OPS PLUS defense.

    Nobody said in a vacuum that .800 was difficult to replace. Freaking Gomes can do that.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Regardless of how you want to quantify defense, a 23 year old that can OPS north of .800 while playing (considered by ANYONE who has seen him play) gold glove caliber defense, and at MINIMUM a top 5 RF'er in baseball, is absolutely, 100 % a rarity.
    What about a 24 year old who can OPS south of .700 while playing solid defense? Because that's what we have on our hands right now.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    What about a 24 year old who can OPS south of .700 while playing solid defense? Because that's what we have on our hands right now.
    Is that what we have on our hands going forward?

    C'mon man, you're better than that.


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