By "by age 24", I meant including their age 24 season, where Jay is now. But even taking it in this way, it doesn't seem like it is such an odd event.Originally Posted by westofyou
By "by age 24", I meant including their age 24 season, where Jay is now. But even taking it in this way, it doesn't seem like it is such an odd event.
Of course if you didn't pull only stars it doesn't.
But keep focusing on small samples (seasons, months, ab's)
Since 1876 532 players have compiled 1000 PA’s before the age of 24
Just looking at the division era 1969 until 2010 we see that 185 players have had 1000 PA’s by age 24
How big a slice of the total pie is this group of 23 year olds (and younger)? Let’s look at the base, how many players in the history of the game have had 1000 PA’s?
At the end of 2010, 3411 players had at least 1000 PA’s in their MLB career; the percentage of players under the age of 24 (532)who had 1000 PA’s is 15.2% of the 3411.
In that 15.2%, we find Jay Bruce; in essence, he is at the top of his class, and from what we have seen on the field he’s he’s delivering sooner than many of the other players. Of course, getting to the plate is one thing, producing is another. To enhance this exercise more, we’ll look at the runs created per every 27 outs, and we’ll see that 55.4% of the under 24 crowd had a RC/27 vs. the league that was average or above average. One of these players is Bruce.
To get a sense of the weight of this list we can look at the top players and there we’ll see that the list is top-heavy with the best hitters in the history of the game. Most of course have ridiculous numbers, 3 are from the 19th century, and Ted Williams and Joe Jackson sit at top like the kings they were.
Meanwhile let’s see where Bruce is…. Number 243 out of the 532 Jay Bruce is in pretty good company too:Code:RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE PA Ted Williams 8.07 13.38 5.31 2613 Joe Jackson 6.96 11.72 4.76 2044 Pete Browning 5.82 11.41 5.59 1157 Stan Musial 5.01 9.47 4.45 1953 Bob Caruthers 4.61 10.78 6.17 1146 Ty Cobb 4.54 8.45 3.91 3081 Albert Pujols 4.25 9.39 5.15 2036 Arky Vaughan 3.96 8.93 4.97 2480 Jimmie Foxx 3.94 9.42 5.48 2567 Joe Kelley 3.91 11.11 7.20 2145
Positions 237-248
To clarify this I looked at the total number of Reds players who have had 1000 PA’s prior to their 24th birthday. Just focusing on players who started after 1969, we can find only three, a small number for a franchise that has been producing hitters consistently for over 40 years.Code:RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE PA Travis Fryman 0.30 4.70 4.40 1584 Dave Winfield 0.30 4.78 4.48 1289 Billy Butler 0.26 5.28 5.02 1510 Ray Chapman 0.25 4.42 4.17 1178 Milt May 0.24 4.65 4.40 1068 Les Mann 0.24 4.42 4.18 2305 Jay Bruce 0.21 5.16 4.95 1412 Clyde Milan 0.20 4.04 3.84 1822 Andre Dawson 0.20 4.79 4.59 1318 Derek Jeter 0.20 5.51 5.32 1453 Pie Traynor 0.18 5.42 5.24 1352 Garry Templeton 0.18 4.78 4.60 2240
Code:PLATE APPEARANCES PA RC/G Adam Dunn 1431 1.53 Jay Bruce 1412 0.21 Dan Driessen 1166 0.63
Jay Bruce's target is star level. The guy was minor league POY, #1 prospect in all of baseball. Why would I look to compare how he fared versus the league average? He should be compared versus the guys in his class.
That's why you should prefer wOBA instead of OPS. wOBA puts the HR in proper balance with the other events. But to your broader point, sure, an aggregate stat isn't going to tell you who is well-rounded expect at the very extreme (where the only way to be that good is to be good at everything). If you want a more in-depth view, feel free to consult his FanGraphs player page to look at plate discipline, batted ball types, etc. -- just don't turn back around and focus on batting average or RBI as if it told you something particularly meaningful.
I agree to an extent. I'd like to see him taking bigger, more frequent steps. But you also have to realize it's not just major league experience that determines how quickly a guy should be developing. This sort of early plateau isn't at all uncommon for guys who make it to the majors quickly. Especially if you consider that different skills progress on different curves. Plate discipline can take a while. Anybody who thought Bruce was going to hit .300 was ignoring the fact that he's never been a great contact hitter.The most troubling thing I see with Bruce is there is no development. Its been 3 years now and when he struggles its the same thing. And his struggles aren't limited to a handful of games, they fester for weeks. Stop me of you have heard this before of have seen this before. Jay Bruce's right shoulder is flying open too early and he is trying to pull everything. He needs to stay with the pitch and try to drive it into left center field. He also had a difficult time with identifying the breaking ball and often swings wildly over the pitch.
The problem I have with Jay is there had been little development. Look at the evolution of Votto or Phillips and the strides they have made each season. You can see the holes they have filled in their game and how the production increases. If you want to continue to compare him to Gomes that is fine but the reality is he is being expected to be an all star level player.
And I hate to harp on the age thing, but Votto had just 87 major league PA coming in to his age 24 season. Phillips spent his age 24 season in Buffalo, the 4th year he spent time in AAA. And which strides has Phillips made each season?
To me that looks like a guy who has been frighteningly consistent and displayed essentially no skill growth whatsoever. His age 26 "breakout" seems like a blip where he somehow traded some walks for homers and hasn't replicated since. We should note, of course, that Phillips' age 26 breakout season was inferior (at the plate) to what Bruce just did at age 23 (.281/.353/.493, .846, .363). By the way, Bruce was a 5 win player last year. That's solid all-star territory. If he hit like people seem to expect him to he'd be an MVP candidate, not just an all-star.Code:Age AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA 25 .276 .324 .427 .751 .331 26 .288 .331 .485 .816 .354 27 .261 .312 .442 .754 .324 28 .276 .329 .447 .776 .337 29 .275 .332 .430 .762 .332
I hope you're not focusing on Phillips' and Bruce's ~100 PA this season as evidence of a trend of continually improvement? Focusing on 100 PA at the expense of the trend from the prior 1500 is losing the forest for the trees. But even looking at this season alone, Bruce is hitting .238/.314/.410. Give him 1 lousy ducksnort a week (4 singles) and he's at .276/.350/.447. Make 1 of them a homer instead of a single and he's slugging .476. It's still VERY early. 2 great games and he's on track. When 2 games can completely change your perspective, it's probably too early to be drawing any conclusions.
And I recognize this has a scouting component too. He has seemed to struggle to put together consecutive good plate appearances. He lunges at something off the plate one pitch and takes a perfectly good strike the next. But scouting observations are suspect to small sample biases as well. Just because we can see it and it feels "more real" doesn't make it necessarily more meaningful. He's struggled at times this year. That's reflected in both the stats and the scouting report. But it could change VERY quickly. And his age and the progress we saw last year suggests we shouldn't getting our panties in a bunch.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-04-2011 at 08:51 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Except, I think that Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker expect it. Hence no additions during the off-season.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I'd say that had a lot more to do with money than it did their expectations of one player.
Timely hit today. Not an indicator of anything more than a single at-bat but a big, big hit today for the Reds and Bruce.
2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2015 Attendance Record: 2-0
2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1
Nice post.
High five!
Hold on a second here, you mean RBI and BA aren't good indicators? I will have to check out wOBA. I have come around to OPS and like to use it because its easy and it makes sense. But I do see some flaws in it and will check out wOBA.
Well lets be honest here there were quite a few people who predicted Jay Bruce to do well in the MVP voting this season. I also don't especially like WAR because of its reliance on a faulty defensive metric. I am not doubting that Bruce is a very good defender, just its skewed quite a bit in that way.I agree to an extent. I'd like to see him taking bigger, more frequent steps. But you also have to realize it's not just major league experience that determines how quickly a guy should be developing. This sort of early plateau isn't at all uncommon for guys who make it to the majors quickly. Especially if you consider that different skills progress on different curves. Plate discipline can take a while. Anybody who thought Bruce was going to hit .300 was ignoring the fact that he's never been a great contact hitter.
And I hate to harp on the age thing, but Votto had just 87 major league PA coming in to his age 24 season. Phillips spent his age 24 season in Buffalo, the 4th year he spent time in AAA. And which strides has Phillips made each season?
To me that looks like a guy who has been frighteningly consistent and displayed essentially no skill growth whatsoever. His age 26 "breakout" seems like a blip where he somehow traded some walks for homers and hasn't replicated since. We should note, of course, that Phillips' age 26 breakout season was inferior (at the plate) to what Bruce just did at age 23 (.281/.353/.493, .846, .363). By the way, Bruce was a 5 win player last year. That's solid all-star territory. If he hit like people seem to expect him to he'd be an MVP candidate, not just an all-star.Code:Age AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA 25 .276 .324 .427 .751 .331 26 .288 .331 .485 .816 .354 27 .261 .312 .442 .754 .324 28 .276 .329 .447 .776 .337 29 .275 .332 .430 .762 .332
Before the Reds called Bruce up when he still was a prospect they wanted the difference between BA and OBP to be .100. I still think that is very applicable to him right now. I never have thought that he would be a good or great average hitter, but thought his power should allow him to be a very good obp guy. It shouldn't be all that far fetched to see Bruce go .270/.370 but he has yet to show that ability. That is one of my biggest problems with Bruce, he just hasn't shown the patience at the plate in order to be a good hitter yet. Until he harnessing that ability I don't think he will become the hitter many want him to be. And to couple that if he continues to hit along the lines he is now why would any pitcher throw him a pitch that is straight? I would pound him over and over again with breaking balls.
The consistent part is somewhat troubling to me. He hasn't shown that ability to find first base at a high rate. He hasn't shown the ability to be a more consistent hitter. He isn't a bad player, but right now he isn't the type of hitter I would want to invest in long term. Maybe strike while his value is low, but most people expect him improve but right now it appears as if his improvement from year to year has been flat.
Isn't there some kind of line in a movie that one extra cheap hit a week is the difference between a minor league player and a major league player? A ducksnort or Derrick Jeter swinging bunt all count the same. But over the course of a season those tend to average out. But if you don't put the ball in player your not going to get a ducksnort, a swing bunt, an infield hit, etc.I hope you're not focusing on Phillips' and Bruce's ~100 PA this season as evidence of a trend of continually improvement? Focusing on 100 PA at the expense of the trend from the prior 1500 is losing the forest for the trees. But even looking at this season alone, Bruce is hitting .238/.314/.410. Give him 1 lousy ducksnort a week (4 singles) and he's at .276/.350/.447. Make 1 of them a homer instead of a single and he's slugging .476. It's still VERY early. 2 great games and he's on track. When 2 games can completely change your perspective, it's probably too early to be drawing any conclusions.
And I recognize this has a scouting component too. He has seemed to struggle to put together consecutive good plate appearances. He lunges at something off the plate one pitch and takes a perfectly good strike the next. But scouting observations are suspect to small sample biases as well. Just because we can see it and it feels "more real" doesn't make it necessarily more meaningful. He's struggled at times this year. That's reflected in both the stats and the scouting report. But it could change VERY quickly. And his age and the progress we saw last year suggests we shouldn't getting our panties in a bunch.
Development is the key issue. And I am the first to recognize that Jay Bruce still is very young for major league standards. But at the same time this will be his 3rd full season in the majors. At some point we have to toss age aside and begin to look at major league experience. 3 years of MLB experience should equal 3 years of MLB experience regardless of age. Jay Bruce went from high school to the majors. You would expect an 18 year old Jay to be a little further advanced than a 18 year old college freshman. I have seen comparisons to Votto but you also have to consider that Votto grew up in Canada whose baseball season is much shorter. His development would have been behind someone who grew up playing year round in Texas.
And no I am not comparing Bruce to BP or Votto after ~100 AB's. Its been a couple of year thing to watch the adjustments that both BP and Votto have made. Heck Votto just won the MVP yet continues to make strides at the plate.
Bull Durham.
Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium.
-- Crash Davis
It would be great if we could pound that square peg of Jay Bruce into a round hole.
Not everybody can make those adjustments. We've just watched Jeremy Hermida (11th pick of 2002 draft), a prospect once just as big as Jay Bruce (12th pick of 2005 draft), look like a rank amateur against MLB pitching.
sorry we're boring
“There's no such thing as "for sure". That's the only sure thing I do know.”
We saw the same kinds of attitudes develop with Adam Dunn (I hesitated to mention his name on this thread).
Baseball is a cruel sport. If you have a weakness, it will get exposed.
She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning
Yep, once the other guys have a book on you, everything changes.
sorry we're boring
Bruce is now 3-4 today with another HR... Maybe we can just start in May next year? That or wait more than two weeks before we start these threads about any player... Either way its been a nice couple of days for Mr Bruce.
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