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Thread: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

  1. #436
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    And youve mostly been wrong about WAR.
    In what ways have I been wrong?

    I find it odd that the most popular sabermetric metric to determine value in a given year uses a metric that is not supposed to be used unless you are looking at a minimum of 3 years.
    Last edited by edabbs44; 05-24-2011 at 08:29 AM.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    In what ways have I been wrong?
    WAR correlates exceptionally well with pythag....we're past the stage where cherry picking and posting "WAR....LOL" is compelling.

    Choo has been one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors during the early season and that's backed by the eyes. Bruce hasn't been nearly impressive defensively during the young season as he's been so far in totality as a Red. The eyes don't bug at the suggestion that they might rate significantly differently with the glove thus far.
    Last edited by jojo; 05-24-2011 at 08:35 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I find it odd that the most popular sabermetric metric to determine value in a given year uses a metric that is not supposed to be used unless you are looking at a minimum of 3 years.
    You're conflating estimation of true talent with what actually happened....something that has bitten you each season that Gomes has been a Red...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    WAR correlates exceptionally well with pythag....we're past the stage where cherry picking and posting "WAR....LOL" is compelling.

    Choo has been one of the best defensive outfielders in the majors during the early season and that's backed by the eyes. Bruce hasn't been nearly impressive defensively during the young season as he's been so far in totality as a Red. The eyes don't bug at the suggestion that they might rate significantly differently with the glove thus far.
    I haven't watched Choo enough defensively to make any statement about his defense, however I have seen enough fluctuation with UZR to wonder how we can use this to measure someone on a yearly basis, let alone a quarterly basis with any certainty.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You're conflating estimation of true talent with what actually happened....something that has bitten you each season that Gomes has been a Red...
    So WAR's recent full season valuations of guys like Nyjer Morgan, Brett Gardner and Andres Torres have been spot on?

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    So WAR's recent full season valuations of guys like Nyjer Morgan, Brett Gardner and Andres Torres have been spot on?
    It is what it is and there are multiple threads on UZR which explain why a single season UZR might diverge from a three season sample. You should search the archives because these conversations have been had.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It is what it is and there are multiple threads on UZR which explain why a single season UZR might diverge from a three season sample. You should search the archives because these conversations have been had.
    Are there any threads on why a single season WAR might diverge from a three season sample and, therefore, a player's "true talent level"?

    I know why UZR is problematic in small samples...but WAR users seem to ignore that fact sometimes.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Are there any threads on why a single season WAR might diverge from a three season sample and, therefore, a player's "true talent level"?

    I know why UZR is problematic in small samples...but WAR users seem to ignore that fact sometimes.
    The biggest reason is randomness in quality of chances and injury but there are multiple reasons.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    The biggest reason is randomness in quality of chances and injury but there are multiple reasons.
    Sure, but that doesn't make WAR any more reliable.

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    I have yet to see a complaint about the UZR component of WAR that isn't answered by the Fangraphs primer.

    Regarding Bruce, the vast majority of players go through "hot" stretches and "cold" stretches; it's a part of baseball. Throw a 100-PA window on virtually any hitter's stats and the view will be pretty much the same as Jay Bruce's April.
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Sure, but that doesn't make WAR any more reliable.
    Reliable for what? That is the important distinction..... As an estimate of true skill or as an estimate of what happened? If looking forward, more data is always better (regardless of offense or defense). If looking back, it's pretty tough to justify throwing the baby out with the bath water IMHO (unless there is a clear reason to do so like the Dunn's last season in the outfield where he was dinged -7 runs in little over 180 inning in RF). That said, I favor taking a survey approach to defensive metrics and it is a flaw of WAR that it only relies upon one (but it is also in advantage in that there is consistency between what a defensive and offensive run is in the system).

    If the gold standard metrics diverge greatly, then a player's WAR might be more questionable. But UZR and Dewan's really don't diverge as much as most would intuitively think.

    For disclosure (because they do diverge more than usual), here are the outliers mentioned earlier:
    Code:
    	Dewan	UZR
    Morgan	22	27
    Torres	13	22
    Gardner	16	25
    Here UZR was consistently higher than Dewan's by about .7 WAR. I wouldn't have a problem with anyone arguing that Morgan was a 4.7 WAR player in 2009. I'd be comfortable with anyone suggesting he was between a 4.7 and 5.2 WAR player that year. The reality is that the conclusion about his season doesn't actually change all that much.

    Also, if it's possible for a player to have a career year offensively, why do we often act like it's impossible for a player to also have a career year defensively?
    Last edited by jojo; 05-24-2011 at 10:49 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I have yet to see a complaint about the UZR component of WAR that isn't answered by the Fangraphs primer.

    Regarding Bruce, the vast majority of players go through "hot" stretches and "cold" stretches; it's a part of baseball. Throw a 100-PA window on virtually any hitter's stats and the view will be pretty much the same as Jay Bruce's April.
    Can you point me to the section which explains how to account for UZR randomness in a single season WAR calculation?

    For example, is Jay Bruce's 5.3 WAR from last year legit or artifically high due to a randomly high UZR in 2010? Can we confidently use WAR on a single season basis or is this metric just a place holder until something better comes along?

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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Can you point me to the section which explains how to account for UZR randomness in a single season WAR calculation?

    For example, is Jay Bruce's 5.3 WAR from last year legit or artifically high due to a randomly high UZR in 2010? Can we confidently use WAR on a single season basis or is this metric just a place holder until something better comes along?
    Bruce's defensive value was estimated at 19.7 runs by UZR and 17 runs by Dewan's last year. My eye suggested it was closer to +72 ( )so I'm confident that his value wasn't an artifact.

    Again it isn't artificial unless one can point to an obvious bias. In other words his value of +20 is what he obtained given the distribution of chances that he had last season. That's not artificial as it is derived from his skill given his opportunities.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #449
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I have yet to see a complaint about the UZR component of WAR that isn't answered by the Fangraphs primer.
    Good read, Nate. Thanks for the link.

    What I got out of it was that there is much uncertainty in it but it's the best we have (for now).

    I have no issue with that. My only issue is that it seems to be weighted to highly in WAR. Using Choo and Bruce as an example - going into last night. Bruce's offensive numbers are significantly better than Choo's, but yet Choo was a 1.6 WAR and Bruce was a 1.2. We already know that Bruce is one of the better RF's in the game. Now Choo is a as well, but could the difference be that significant to manipulate the WAR to that extreme?

    Funny, now I checked fangraphs and see that after last night Bruce goes to a 1.7 and Choo 1.5. So I guess, like anything this early, WAR fluctuates greatly day to day.

  16. #450
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    Re: So when is Bruce going to start hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Good read, Nate. Thanks for the link.

    What I got out of it was that there is much uncertainty in it but it's the best we have (for now).

    I have no issue with that. My only issue is that it seems to be weighted to highly in WAR. Using Choo and Bruce as an example - going into last night. Bruce's offensive numbers are significantly better than Choo's, but yet Choo was a 1.6 WAR and Bruce was a 1.2. We already know that Bruce is one of the better RF's in the game. Now Choo is a as well, but could the difference be that significant to manipulate the WAR to that extreme?

    Funny, now I checked fangraphs and see that after last night Bruce goes to a 1.7 and Choo 1.5. So I guess, like anything this early, WAR fluctuates greatly day to day.
    I don't believe WAR is updated on a daily basis (at least I don't believe the defensive numbers are updated on a daily basis).


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