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Thread: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

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  1. #1
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    Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    It's no secret that thus far, Leake has pitched better than Volquez has. That's not to say it will continue, but there's no doubt that Leake has control that is light years ahead of Volquez. Given that Bailey and Cueto are rehabbing right now and will be back before long, what happens? We know that LeCure's spot will be taken by 1 of them. But what about the other? Do you send Leake to 3a? Do you put Volquez in the bullpen? Volquez has walked almost as many batters as the rest of the rotation combined. He has also given up 6 jacks, which is a staggering and concerning number. He is a K machine, however.

    What do you think should happen and what do you think will happen?

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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    When Cueto and Bailey come back I'd send Maloney and Leake to Louisville and LeCure to the bullpen.

    I guess we'll have to wait and see.


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    Last edited by Ron Madden; 04-17-2011 at 11:55 PM.

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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Going to a game Volquez pitches is like watching a concert with a really crap opening act.

    I'm kinda sick of it. It's clearly a head issue for him at this point (and, really, it's been head issues for him since his Texas days), and if he can't sort it out, I don't want him on the ballclub costing the the team games.
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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Going to a game Volquez pitches is like watching a concert with a really crap opening act.

    I'm kinda sick of it. It's clearly a head issue for him at this point (and, really, it's been head issues for him since his Texas days), and if he can't sort it out, I don't want him on the ballclub costing the the team games.
    At the risk of getting another lecture and causing a long post by someone with all kinds of statistics with lots of capital letters in them, I'll just say this. Of course, i've said it before, but the guy has real talent. Real talent. Unfortunately, his history (just like Josh Hamilton's drug history and injury history) is there for everyone to see. He is a pitcher whose command comes and goes. It was that way at Texas and in the minors. He had a good first half in his first year, but after that, he's been an average pitcher who can wow you on one day and drive you nuts on the other. I do not expect anything else from him, and that's fine.

    It's pretty obvious the kid has a mental block in the first inning this year, but he hasn't been around long enough (big early inning pitch counts) for anyone to know if he will pitch OK late in a game. So, those who expect him to be the ace will be disappointed.
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    History tells me that most of this will be worked out by fate.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    When Bailey and Cueto return, my rotation would be Cueto, Bailey, Arroyo, Wood, and either of Leake or LeCure, with the other in the bullpen. I send Maloney back down and try to make a deal for Volquez. I also make it the first priority for 2012 to prepare Chapman to become a member of the rotation. In a way, I think it's too early to make a decision about Volquez, and perhaps his problems are exacerbated by the surgery, but the problems look very much like those that have plagued him throughout all of his career except for the first half of his first season with us: command issues, and there's very little reason to believe they will get better.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    When I see Volquez pitch, all I can think of is how many of us kept telling ourselves that EE would eventually learn how to throw the ball to 1B.

    Edinson definitely has talent; his arm is quite live. But I find it interesting that we treat control like something that be improved pretty easily -- like it's just a matter of time. We certainly treat it differently than stuff. Nobody expects Mike Leake to start striking out a guy an inning. Very few guys go from having poor control to having good control.

    As for the rotation; I think Maloney and Leake head to Louisville and LeCure takes over the long relief role.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    It's no secret that thus far, Leake has pitched better than Volquez has.
    Volquez xFIP 4.07
    Leake xFIP 3.84

    Little to choose from at this stage.

    Let's wait a few more starts and it will likely sort itself out.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Volquez xFIP 4.07
    Leake xFIP 3.84

    Little to choose from at this stage.

    Let's wait a few more starts and it will likely sort itself out.
    xFIP sadly does not take into consideration BBs, something that Volquez has a whole lot of.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    xFIP sadly does not take into consideration BBs, something that Volquez has a whole lot of.
    Since when?

    Happily it does.

    FIP takes into account walks, K's and HR's. And an average BABIP rate.

    xFIP takes FIP and replaces the pitcher's HR/FB rate with a league average rate.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Since when?

    Happily it does.

    FIP takes into account walks, K's and HR's. And an average BABIP rate.

    xFIP takes FIP and replaces the pitcher's HR/FB rate with a league average rate.
    You're right. Doesn't change the fact that Volquez has double the amount of BBs as Leake and has surrendered quite a few more home runs than Leake this year as well. Obviously, xFIP is not telling the whole story here.

    Even if you compare Volquez's last full season with Leake's rookie year, Volquez still walked almost double the amount of batters as Leake. In Volqeuz's best year, 2008, he only surrendered 14 home runs, and he has 6 already this year and we're not even 3 weeks into the season.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    You're right. Doesn't change the fact that Volquez has double the amount of BBs as Leake and has surrendered quite a few more home runs than Leake this year as well. Obviously, xFIP is not telling the whole story here.
    xFIP isn't supposed to tell us how many HR's a pitcher has given up, just how many he is expected to give up.

    That's it's point.

    To show us that if Volquez continues to pitch like he has, the HR rate will come dome significantly.

    xFIP does tell us what has occured. It tells us what likely should have occured based on things the pitcher has control over.

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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Unless Volquez gets his 1st inning woes straightened out in the next couple of starts you have to either send to the bullpen or to AAA if he has options left. You can't let him continue to put his team in the hole every game. It puts too much pressure on the entire team to come from behind. Not to mention that it will slowly burn out a bullpen because you having to take him out an inning or two earlier than you would have he had got off to a good start. That loss yesterday was all on him. If he comes out the gate well the Reds win that game easily. You can't keep giving away games like that and expect to make the playoffs.
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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    Unless Volquez gets his 1st inning woes straightened out in the next couple of starts you have to either send to the bullpen or to AAA if he has options left. You can't let him continue to put his team in the hole every game. It puts too much pressure on the entire team to come from behind. Not to mention that it will slowly burn out a bullpen because you having to take him out an inning or two earlier than you would have he had got off to a good start. That loss yesterday was all on him. If he comes out the gate well the Reds win that game easily. You can't keep giving away games like that and expect to make the playoffs.
    The bullpen is no place for a guy with 1st inning woes. More like a phantom arm injury and a few rehab starts in the minors.

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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The bullpen is no place for a guy with 1st inning woes. More like a phantom arm injury and a few rehab starts in the minors.
    Agreed. A phantom injury would do the trick.
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