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Thread: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

  1. #16
    Member kbrake's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    I don't see this team going very far in October unless Volquez is a big part of things. I've said since OD we need to be patient with him and hope he works out the kinks. I don't think its an effort or attitude issue at all. I'm sure he's more frustrated than anyone else here. I'd send LeCure and Leake down and keep both pitching in the rotation. If it is June and Volquez is still struggling like this replace him with either one.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    Unless Volquez gets his 1st inning woes straightened out in the next couple of starts you have to either send to the bullpen or to AAA if he has options left. You can't let him continue to put his team in the hole every game. It puts too much pressure on the entire team to come from behind. Not to mention that it will slowly burn out a bullpen because you having to take him out an inning or two earlier than you would have he had got off to a good start. That loss yesterday was all on him. If he comes out the gate well the Reds win that game easily. You can't keep giving away games like that and expect to make the playoffs.
    It is the only game the Reds have lost when Volquez was starting. And the game was tied when he left. Plenty of blame to go around for yesterday's loss.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Would it be as glaring if every game in the third inning Volquez gave up 2-4 runs? First inning, top of the order every game, pitcher may not know what he has that day quite yet, batters zoned in on their first AB, still remember the game plan from pregame thoughts, and a lot of other factors that make this game so befuddling. Volquez bad first inning is just another befuddler. Elias will probably have to get on the last time a pitcher gave up back to back jacks to start a game in the same season.
    Last edited by traderumor; 04-18-2011 at 11:16 AM.
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Tom Glavine must have not tried either.

    His 1st inning numbers are horrendous as far as letting runs in.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ear=Career&t=p
    There's a certain amount of conventional baseball wisdom that "you get to great pitchers early, or not at all." I think what Volquez experiences is beyond even that, though.
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    It's no secret that thus far, Leake has pitched better than Volquez has. That's not to say it will continue, but there's no doubt that Leake has control that is light years ahead of Volquez. Given that Bailey and Cueto are rehabbing right now and will be back before long, what happens? We know that LeCure's spot will be taken by 1 of them. But what about the other? Do you send Leake to 3a? Do you put Volquez in the bullpen? Volquez has walked almost as many batters as the rest of the rotation combined. He has also given up 6 jacks, which is a staggering and concerning number. He is a K machine, however.

    What do you think should happen and what do you think will happen?
    Well, first off, let me say that I'm a big Leake fan AND a big Volquez fan. My posts lately may not show that, but I love Volquez. His attitude and his talent.

    Secondly, I also don't think it's clear that Leake has pitched better than Edinson. Leake has struggled with his command early on as well. Not to the extreme that Edinson has, but Leake doesn't have the gas that Volquez does either to offset a lack of command. When Mike is walking 4 guys in a game, that's a HORRIFIC game for him. He's been up in the zone quite a bit too, which is totally the opposite of his norm.

    That being said, once Cueto & Homer are healthy, as things stand now I'd be in favor of sending both Edinson & Mike to Louisville. I don't think either are suited for the bullpen and they both need to pitch regularly every 5 days to work out of their struggles and improve their command. Now if one of Homer or Cueto aren't ready and I had to choose between Mike & Edinson...I'd lean towards Mike. He doesn't have the huge upside that Edinson does, BUT he's fully healthy, needs the experience, has better control and IMO has a smaller chance of having a disastrous start. If it turns out that Sam LeCure falls off considerably, then I'd lean towards Leake as well. But for the long man, I prefer Maloney there. Sink or swim. He's got nothing left to prove in the minors and between he and Sam, I think Sam's got the better shot to be a MLB starter (albeit a #5).

    As for Volquez being a "K machine", I'm not seeing that yet. He's on a pace right now of just 2 more K's per game than Leake, Wood & Arroyo. LeCure is averaging more K's than Edinson. Over the long haul...yeah, he'll get more K's...but until he improves his command, he'll never be a "K machine".
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by kbrake View Post
    I don't see this team going very far in October unless Volquez is a big part of things. I've said since OD we need to be patient with him and hope he works out the kinks. I don't think its an effort or attitude issue at all. I'm sure he's more frustrated than anyone else here. I'd send LeCure and Leake down and keep both pitching in the rotation. If it is June and Volquez is still struggling like this replace him with either one.
    I would hope that, with the cupboard absolutely stocked in the minor leagues, this is the summer that Walt finally makes a deal for a legitimate No. 1 starter. Enough pinning all the hopes and dreams of this team on Edinson Volquez figuring it out to the point that he can match zeros with Roy Halladay and Tim Lincicum and Cliff Lee. That ship has sailed. This team has a window to win right now (not to mention, the fan interest is at its highest point in years) and it would be a crying shame if WJ fails to do what's needed to put them over the hump.

    Otherwise, even if we win this division again, I think everyone knows what awaits in the playoffs.
    Last edited by Reds/Flyers Fan; 04-18-2011 at 01:07 PM.

  8. #22
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Well, first off, let me say that I'm a big Leake fan AND a big Volquez fan. My posts lately may not show that, but I love Volquez. His attitude and his talent.

    Secondly, I also don't think it's clear that Leake has pitched better than Edinson. Leake has struggled with his command early on as well. Not to the extreme that Edinson has, but Leake doesn't have the gas that Volquez does either to offset a lack of command. When Mike is walking 4 guys in a game, that's a HORRIFIC game for him. He's been up in the zone quite a bit too, which is totally the opposite of his norm.

    That being said, once Cueto & Homer are healthy, as things stand now I'd be in favor of sending both Edinson & Mike to Louisville. I don't think either are suited for the bullpen and they both need to pitch regularly every 5 days to work out of their struggles and improve their command. Now if one of Homer or Cueto aren't ready and I had to choose between Mike & Edinson...I'd lean towards Mike. He doesn't have the huge upside that Edinson does, BUT he's fully healthy, needs the experience, has better control and IMO has a smaller chance of having a disastrous start. If it turns out that Sam LeCure falls off considerably, then I'd lean towards Leake as well. But for the long man, I prefer Maloney there. Sink or swim. He's got nothing left to prove in the minors and between he and Sam, I think Sam's got the better shot to be a MLB starter (albeit a #5).

    As for Volquez being a "K machine", I'm not seeing that yet. He's on a pace right now of just 2 more K's per game than Leake, Wood & Arroyo. LeCure is averaging more K's than Edinson. Over the long haul...yeah, he'll get more K's...but until he improves his command, he'll never be a "K machine".
    What upside? Here are Edinson's career MLB stats.
    Between 4/06/08 - 6/20/08: 16 games 95 IP 1.71 ERA
    All other games in Career: 62 games 316 IP 5.33 ERA

    Now you can't just take out his first 16 starts with the Reds but at the same time Leake's first half of last year often gets discounted when talking about him.

    I think Leake has been a little wild this season. It appears that his command is off a tad which is not a good thing for Mike. But if it were up to me, I have less faith in Edinson ever gaining control than I do with Leake regaining his control.

  9. #23
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    I would hope that, with the cupboard absolutely stocked in the minor leagues, this is the summer that Walt finally makes a deal for a legitimate No. 1 starter. Enough pinning all the hopes and dreams of this team on Edinson Volquez figuring it out to the point that he can match zeros with Roy Halladay and Tim Lincicum and Cliff Lee. That ship has sailed. This team has a window to win right now (not to mention, the fan interest is at its highest point in years) and it would be a crying shame if WJ fails to do what's needed to put them over the hump.

    Otherwise, even if we win this division again, I think everyone knows what awaits in the playoffs.
    Biggest problem with this could be what will be available at the deadline? I'm not sure the M's will deal King Felix and outside of that will there be a difference maker? Agree with your idea though.

  10. #24
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    I would hope that, with the cupboard absolutely stocked in the minor leagues, this is the summer that Walt finally makes a deal for a legitimate No. 1 starter. Enough pinning all the hopes and dreams of this team on Edinson Volquez figuring it out to the point that he can match zeros with Roy Halladay and Tim Lincicum and Cliff Lee. That ship has sailed. This team has a window to win right now (not to mention, the fan interest is at its highest point in years) and it would be a crying shame if WJ fails to do what's needed to put them over the hump.

    Otherwise, even if we win this division again, I think everyone knows what awaits in the playoffs.
    I'm wondering what "legit no. 1 starters" are available. I agree with the concept, but not sure that there are any glaring available TOR starters that fit the bill, which also means that failure to do so is at what price?
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Then whats the issue? It wouldn't be the first time that an organization didn't think he was taking his preparation seriously. You can't keep running him out there when he puts the team behind the 8 ball every single start.

    I am just not in the camp of saying "everything is fine" or "its an outlier" or "things will average out". Fact of the matter is right now its looking like Edinson's success was the outlier.
    To be honest I don't know. I'm not discounting the possibility, but simply saying that we can't assume that is the case because we don't know what's going on.

    I do think a lot of it will even out one way or the other, Bronson went through a stretch like this(but I don't believe it was as extreme) 2 or 3 years ago I believe.
    In my opinion, this is something that is something that needs to be worked through, but isn't as extreme as it looks, but for it happening at the beginning of the seasons.
    If Edison had 4 starts like this in June, it would be something to note, but not a reason to doubt his committment.
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Volquez xFIP 4.07
    Leake xFIP 3.84

    Little to choose from at this stage.

    Let's wait a few more starts and it will likely sort itself out.
    xFIP sadly does not take into consideration BBs, something that Volquez has a whole lot of.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post

    Secondly, I also don't think it's clear that Leake has pitched better than Edinson. Leake has struggled with his command early on as well. Not to the extreme that Edinson has, but Leake doesn't have the gas that Volquez does either to offset a lack of command. When Mike is walking 4 guys in a game, that's a HORRIFIC game for him. He's been up in the zone quite a bit too, which is totally the opposite of his norm.

    As for Volquez being a "K machine", I'm not seeing that yet. He's on a pace right now of just 2 more K's per game than Leake, Wood & Arroyo. LeCure is averaging more K's than Edinson. Over the long haul...yeah, he'll get more K's...but until he improves his command, he'll never be a "K machine".
    What stat of Volquez's (other than Ks) is better than Leake's? And to the point of Ks, Volquez has 24 in 22.2 innings. For a major leaguer, that's a K machine in my opinion.

  14. #28
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    What upside? Here are Edinson's career MLB stats.
    Between 4/06/08 - 6/20/08: 16 games 95 IP 1.71 ERA
    All other games in Career: 62 games 316 IP 5.33 ERA

    Now you can't just take out his first 16 starts with the Reds but at the same time Leake's first half of last year often gets discounted when talking about him.

    I think Leake has been a little wild this season. It appears that his command is off a tad which is not a good thing for Mike. But if it were up to me, I have less faith in Edinson ever gaining control than I do with Leake regaining his control.
    His upside in regards to his talent level. Sure, the odds are dropping rapidly as to whether he'll ever live up to that talent...but for now, it's still there.

    But I'm right with you in regards to his overall performance since being a Red and heck since being in the bigs period. He's a middle of the rotation pitcher thus far. He had a great half season stretch...but was it any better than Homer's half season stretch? Or Leake's half season stretch? I'd say they're pretty close to one another. But based on the full body of work...middle of rotation right now.

    And yes, I don't foresee Mike having ANY problems regaining his control. I'm really high on the kid.
    Last edited by _Sir_Charles_; 04-18-2011 at 02:54 PM.
    Chapman to the rotation!!!! Do it already!!!!

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    xFIP sadly does not take into consideration BBs, something that Volquez has a whole lot of.
    Since when?

    Happily it does.

    FIP takes into account walks, K's and HR's. And an average BABIP rate.

    xFIP takes FIP and replaces the pitcher's HR/FB rate with a league average rate.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    His upside in regards to his talent level. Sure, the odds are dropping rapidly as to whether he'll ever live up to that talent...but for now, it's still there.

    But I'm right with you in regards to his overall performance since being a Red and heck since being in the bigs period. He's a middle of the rotation pitcher thus far. He had a great half season stretch...but was it any better than Homer's half season stretch? Or Leake's half season stretch? I'd say they're pretty close to one another. But based on the full body of work...middle of rotation right now.
    Funny how 196 IP and an ERA Plus of 138 in 2008 is now just "a half a season" and is somehow equal to Leake's ERA plus of 94 and Bailey's +90 from last year.


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