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Thread: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

  1. #46
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Two months of "otherwordly" still trumps 6 months of sub average.
    Kevin Maas says hello.

    Unless one can provide relevant circumstances to consider, I'm going to give more weight to the 6 consistent months than the two freakish months.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Kevin Maas says hello.

    Unless one can provide relevant circumstances to consider, I'm going to give more weight to the 6 consistent months than the two freakish months.
    6 months of sub average gives you Jimmy Haynes.

    Hooray!!

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    Pitching staff changes loom

    When Bailey, Cueto and Arredondo come back, i think it's likely that Maloney, Lecure and Jordan Smith will go to AAA.

    Despite Leake's legal issue, I still see the Reds keeping him around, perhaps as a long reliever.

    A rotation of Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, and Wood with a pen of Chapman, Cordero, Masset, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Bray, and Leake looks like a better pitching staff than the team has today.

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    Re: Pitching staff changes loom

    I'm an outsider looking in on this situation and don't know the whole details of the Reds pitching rotation. Looking at the numbers though, I don't think the Reds should send down LeCure. By the looks of it, he has been the Reds best starting pitcher thus far.

    To be completely frank in all of this, I have never been a huge fan of Bailey. I have heard Reds fans for years talk about the kids potential. I know he is injured this season and coming back so maybe he has changed a bit or he is going to take it to the next level. However, should the Reds send down Lecure to put Bailey in the rotation? I feel that if you do that, the Reds take a step back. Again, I'm an outsider in all of this so I don't know every situation with every pitcher on the team. I could be wrong.
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  6. #50
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Pitching staff changes loom

    Maloney and Leake to AAA. Lecure to long relief. Not sure how Arredondo would fit in, but I still see Smith as a guy with a short shelf life but its hard to send him down if he's getting guys out. Arredondo obviously gets added, but I'm guessing another DL stint may occur to make room. Perhaps Volquez to the DL and some rehab starts while Lecure stays in the rotation. I think how they pitch the next time through the rotation will help make the decision. Lecure gave up 4 HR in 5.333 IP today. I like him in long relief, but he's not a sure thing to stick if everybody else pitches OK. He could go down to stay ready. Long term, I think Lecure is better than Smith for the pen.
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    Re: Pitching staff changes loom

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Maloney and Leake to AAA. Lecure to long relief. Not sure how Arredondo would fit in, but I still see Smith as a guy with a short shelf life but its hard to send him down if he's getting guys out. Arredondo obviously gets added, but I'm guessing another DL stint may occur to make room. Perhaps Volquez to the DL and some rehab starts while Lecure stays in the rotation. I think how they pitch the next time through the rotation will help make the decision. Lecure gave up 4 HR in 5.333 IP today. I like him in long relief, but he's not a sure thing to stick if everybody else pitches OK. He could go down to stay ready. Long term, I think Lecure is better than Smith for the pen.
    I don't think the Reds plan to send Leake down to the minor leagues. I don't think they ever did plan to do so.
    Dusty has even said as much.

    I can see Leake in long relief for awhile, until another starter gets hurt or messes up. Which may not take long the way things are going.

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    Re: Pitching staff changes loom

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I'm an outsider looking in on this situation and don't know the whole details of the Reds pitching rotation. Looking at the numbers though, I don't think the Reds should send down LeCure. By the looks of it, he has been the Reds best starting pitcher thus far.
    Small sample size.

    He's well below #5 on the depth chart.

    I'd keep him in relief though.

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    Re: Pitching staff changes loom

    I love Leake, but I think he has to be one that goes down. It pains me to think about that though
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Leake looked pretty good today. Does today's start for Leake mean anything moving forward?

  12. #56
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Leake is making it tough for people. With Bailey's "setback", he may get a start or two extra to see how everything shakes out. Cincy hasn't had the most difficult schedule so far so seeing these guys against some different teams may help.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    It's no secret that thus far, Leake has pitched better than Volquez has. That's not to say it will continue, but there's no doubt that Leake has control that is light years ahead of Volquez. Given that Bailey and Cueto are rehabbing right now and will be back before long, what happens? We know that LeCure's spot will be taken by 1 of them. But what about the other? Do you send Leake to 3a? Do you put Volquez in the bullpen? Volquez has walked almost as many batters as the rest of the rotation combined. He has also given up 6 jacks, which is a staggering and concerning number. He is a K machine, however.

    What do you think should happen and what do you think will happen?
    Are you suggesting the Leake steal Volquez's rising star status?
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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Leake is making it tough for people. With Bailey's "setback", he may get a start or two extra to see how everything shakes out. Cincy hasn't had the most difficult schedule so far so seeing these guys against some different teams may help.
    I'm guessing you mean CUETO's setback...Bailey pitches tomorrow in Toledo for the 11-5 Louisville Bats. I'm guessing this will be Bailey's last rehab start if all goes well. I'm guessing he'll start the first game against the Marlins on Friday night. Lecure will probably go to the 'pen and Carlos Fischer will go back down...or even out, if he hasn't done anything by then. Fischer wasn't pitching well in Louisville IMO, so I'm not sure why they picked him to bring up besides being on the 40-man already.
    Anyway, Cueto pitched on the 21st, as did Mike Leake and he only went 1.2 innings giving up 8 ER, 9 hits,2 BB, 0 Ks. Yea, I'd call that a setback.

    EDIT - nevermind: I really should read before I post...I saw the post about Bailey's setback. I guess MiLB.com hasn't got the news yet as they still list him as tomorrow's starter. Sorry for the confusion.
    Last edited by WebScorpion; 04-24-2011 at 03:14 AM.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Not sure what happened with the setback at this point. Bailey just pitched in Toledo on regular rest and went 5.1 innings, 72 pitches, 48 strikes, 6 Ks, 1 BB, 3 hits, 0 runs. In short, he looked like a Major League pitcher should look in AAA...he dominated them. I watched part of the game on MiLB.TV and he looked really relaxed in the 6th when he got to his pitch count. He looked like he could have gone another inning or two, but I guess it's better that they not tax him early. I'd guess he's ready to pitch the opener against Florida on Friday and go 80-90 pitches. We could use the shot in the arm.

    Oh yeah, the Bats are winning 9-0 in the 7th and Homer's in line for the W.

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    Re: Leake vs. Volquez & The Starting Rotation

    Here's something from the archives concerning Volquez's breakout 2008 season that informs parts of the discussion in the current thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It wouldn't surprise me if Volquez never posted an ERA below 3.50 again.

    At issue is his true skill level (an important baseline for predicting his future).

    Here's a breakdown of his season using the "half" split.

    Code:
    Volquez 2008													
    Season	IP	FIP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	H/9	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB	xFIP
    1st	117.2	3.19	2.30	9.68	4.30	0.38	6.91	0.290	0.53	0.29	0.18	5.7	3.70
    2nd	78.1	4.19	4.61	9.22	4.26	1.04	8.87	0.329	0.38	0.41	0.22	10.3	4.28
    First, there is no doubt that Volquez took a step forward this season as he established himself as a legitimate major league starter.

    That said, his season was a tale of two seasons. Clearly his first half was a hyperbolic one when just looking at his ERA and his second half, well, not so much. That said, looking at his peripherals, he was not a dramatically different fellow but for a couple notable exceptions. Upon closer look, his first half was driven substantially by an extremely low HR/FB rate for a starter (typically this parameter is considered out of control of a pitcher and deviations from 10-11% are expected to regress). He also demonstrated an ability to induce groundballs that was significantly higher than his career to date.

    Basically in the second half his HR/FB% and GB% regressed back to expected levels. Mix in half a K less per 9 and a mild swing in his BABIP and not surprisingly, his ERA jumped dramatically.

    So the point? I think Volquez's true skill level is probably captured by his "half split" xFIPs, i.e. it's somewhere between 3.70 and 4.30. Right now, it seems reasonable to split the difference and expect a xFIP of 4.00.

    From that standpoint, I think an ERA of 4.00 isn't a shocking projection but one of 2.75-3.20 would be highly unlikely.

    I also see no reason to expect Volquez to significantly decrease his walk rate moving forward.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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