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Thread: Hot Starts

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Hot Starts

    Too early to really make much of these numbers, but its a start. Looking for this year's Mesoraco/Sappelt/Heisey step forward. Puckett is a decent bet. On the pitching side, this year's Travis Wood could be...??


    Hitters:
    Code:
    Name	Level	AB	Ave	OBP	Slg	OPS
    Mes       AAA	46	0.261	0.352	0.565	0.917
    Sappelt	  AAA	66	0.318	0.357	0.545	0.903
    Puckett	   AA	48	0.354	0.466	0.646	1.111
    Cost'zo    AA	50	0.280	0.362	0.680	1.042
    Campbell   A+	62	0.484	0.558	0.774	1.333
    Grandal	   A+	48	0.333	0.458	0.750	1.208
    Fellhauer   A+	68	0.397	0.474	0.574	1.048
    Means	   A+	67	0.373	0.455	0.552	1.007
    Lutz	   A	58	0.345	0.387	0.690	1.077
    D'Anna	   A	49	0.347	0.458	0.469	0.927
    Pitchers

    Code:
    Name	Level	IP	ERA	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
    Carroll	  AAA	24.667	3.65	11.31	2.55	5.84	1.09
    Reineke	  AAA	17.667	2.04	7.13	2.55	3.57	0.00
    Horst	  AAA	8.333	0.00	4.32	2.16	9.72	0.00
    Christiani AA	8.667	0.00	4.15	0.00	9.35	0.00
    Box'ger	   AA	8.667	0.00	2.08	6.23	13.50	0.00
    Ravin	    A+	17.333	1.56	2.60	6.23	11.42	0.52
    Villareal  A+	25.000	2.16	9.72	0.72	6.84	0.72
    Bowman	   A+	8.000	2.25	6.75	9.00	6.75	0.00
    Smith	   A	23.000	1.17	3.91	1.96	9.00	0.39
    Howell	   A	8.667	2.08	6.23	3.12	8.31	0.00
    Doyle	   A	12.333	2.19	8.76	1.46	15.32	0.00
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #2
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Pat Doyle with 21K and 2BB in 12.333 IP. Impressive so far. Anybody have any info on him beyond 6'2", 205 Righty who turns 23 in May?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #3
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Take your pick from the Bakersfield lineup. At the moment, the Blaze's team batting average (.337) is an amazing 50 points higher than the second-best team. The OBP (.422) leads the pack by .58. The team OPS is .122 ahead of the next. Over 17 games, they've outscored everybody by at least 26 runs.

    But the thing is, there's no established hitter in the bunch, other than Henry Rodriguez. Yasmani Grandal has the best pedigree, by far. Eric Campbell, Josh Fellhauer and A.J. Means have had huge starts. And lately--very lately--Stephen Hunt. Obviously, when a team is batting .337, just about everybody's hot.

  5. #4
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Take your pick from the Bakersfield lineup. At the moment, the Blaze's team batting average (.337) is an amazing 50 points higher than the second-best team. The OBP (.422) leads the pack by .58. The team OPS is .122 ahead of the next. Over 17 games, they've outscored everybody by at least 26 runs.

    But the thing is, there's no established hitter in the bunch, other than Henry Rodriguez. Yasmani Grandal has the best pedigree, by far. Eric Campbell, Josh Fellhauer and A.J. Means have had huge starts. And lately--very lately--Stephen Hunt. Obviously, when a team is batting .337, just about everybody's hot.
    I think the league and the park really distort things. My rough, completely gut level, rule of thumb is to treat an OPS of 1.000 on the Blaze the same as .800 some place else. Of course that would make the pitchers look better, but Ravin and Bowman have too many walks while Villareal has a pedestrian K rate. Those things aren't too impacted by the park though the park could start guys nibbling and bump those walk rates I suppose. All three are interesting though. I've thought of Villareal as a sleeper anyway so I'm interested in how he does out there.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #5
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the league and the park really distort things. My rough, completely gut level, rule of thumb is to treat an OPS of 1.000 on the Blaze the same as .800 some place else. Of course that would make the pitchers look better, but Ravin and Bowman have too many walks while Villareal has a pedestrian K rate. Those things aren't too impacted by the park though the park could start guys nibbling and bump those walk rates I suppose. All three are interesting though. I've thought of Villareal as a sleeper anyway so I'm interested in how he does out there.
    The drastic nature of the Cal League isn't that large. The average Cal League OPS is quite a bit larger than the other two High A leagues, but only by about 10%, not 25%.

    And while the park has its interesting situation in center field, the team isn't really hitting HR's, they are just hitting a million doubles. That team is hitting the ball right now unlike any other team in the league, so it isn't a league thing.

    With Ravin, the walks are high, but so are the strikeouts at this point and no one is even hitting the ball hard off of him. He has really good stuff and he has been on with it.

  7. #6
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think the league and the park really distort things. My rough, completely gut level, rule of thumb is to treat an OPS of 1.000 on the Blaze the same as .800 some place else. .
    Well, yeah, something like that. But the original post didn't deal with raw numbers. The point was the margin by which the Bakersfield hitters lead the league in various categories. Doug pointed out in another thread that Bakersfield is not unusual for that league as a hitters park. So there is no park effect caveat in the fact that the Blaze hitters are dominating the league.

  8. #7
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Cody Puckett is making me a believer. 2-for-4 with two home runs tonight (#4, 5) and is now hitting .358/.460/.736 - 1.196 OPS with 8 BB/14 K in 61 plate appearances. He's also 4-for-4 in the stolen base department. I wonder if he has the arm or ability to play third base?
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Hot Starts

    At what point does bringing up Sappelt, and moving Stubbs down in the lineup become a realistic option?

    I still feel Stubbs will fit in best as a number 5 type hitter, driving in runs, and Sappelt would look good in the leadoff spot.

    I just think right now (especially with Rolen out) this lineup gives the Reds the best shot:

    Sappelt
    Bruce (i've always liked him hitting in front of Votto)
    Votto
    Phillips
    Stubbs
    Hernandez
    Cairo
    Janish

  10. #9
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Cody Puckett is making me a believer. 2-for-4 with two home runs tonight (#4, 5) and is now hitting .358/.460/.736 - 1.196 OPS with 8 BB/14 K in 61 plate appearances. He's also 4-for-4 in the stolen base department. I wonder if he has the arm or ability to play third base?
    I have been wondering about this as well. My guess would be that his arm is not viewed as strong enough although he did play SS in college. Also, why has Frazier been moved back to LF and Griffin put on 3B? To me, the need to get Frazier more time at 3B has never been greater.

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    Re: Hot Starts

    I think Grandal is going to have a fabulous year.

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    Re: Hot Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    At what point does bringing up Sappelt, and moving Stubbs down in the lineup become a realistic option?
    It will once Mesoraco comes up as well. You'd wanna give Stubbs some protection down there in the lineup once Here's how i imagine a future Reds incarnation (late 2012):

    Sappelt
    Votto
    Mesoraco
    Bruce
    Stubbs
    Phillips
    Rolen/Francisco
    Janish

    If Mesoraco can establish himself as the bat he appears to be, he'd be a worthy candidate to separate Votto and Bruce. Votto could exercise his OBP skills as well as power without worry about his protection, while Bruce can be the cleanup hitter he's capable of being. And with Phillips and Rolen behind him, Stubbs can both hit for power and use his stealing abilities depending on the circumstances.

  13. #12
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Some sort of platoon for Gomes makes a lot of sense and I'd love for Sappelt to be that guy. If he's still putting up numbers come June, he may force the REds hand

  14. #13
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Sappelt and Mesoraco have both raised their OPS since the Original Post and Todd Frazier has come on and raised his OPS to .827 while playing a spot where the Reds may need him.

    Meanwhile in Dayton, Josh Smith with another 6 innings of dominating performance. 6 IP, 4H, 2BB and 12K. He's a college player and though he didn't attend a major school, he just seems too advanced for Low A. He had little trouble last year in Billings and Dayton in relief. Another month in Dayton without a blow-up and its probably time for a promotion. Kid was a high K pitcher in college. He may be somebody to get a little excited about. I'd like to know more about this kid. He's 23, 6-2, 220 pounds. He's a RH pitcher who was 4th in the nation in K's at Lipscombe and the Reds got him in the 21st Round of last year's draft. More info on him would be appreciated.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hot Starts

    Solid fastball, outstanding curveball.


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