Hot Starts

[mth123]

Too early to really make much of these numbers, but its a start. Looking for this year's Mesoraco/Sappelt/Heisey step forward. Puckett is a decent bet. On the pitching side, this year's Travis Wood could be...??


Hitters:

Name	Level	AB	Ave	OBP	Slg	OPS
Mes       AAA	46	0.261	0.352	0.565	0.917
Sappelt	  AAA	66	0.318	0.357	0.545	0.903
Puckett	   AA	48	0.354	0.466	0.646	1.111
Cost'zo    AA	50	0.280	0.362	0.680	1.042
Campbell   A+	62	0.484	0.558	0.774	1.333
Grandal	   A+	48	0.333	0.458	0.750	1.208
Fellhauer   A+	68	0.397	0.474	0.574	1.048
Means	   A+	67	0.373	0.455	0.552	1.007
Lutz	   A	58	0.345	0.387	0.690	1.077
D'Anna	   A	49	0.347	0.458	0.469	0.927

Pitchers

Name	Level	IP	ERA	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
Carroll	  AAA	24.667	3.65	11.31	2.55	5.84	1.09
Reineke	  AAA	17.667	2.04	7.13	2.55	3.57	0.00
Horst	  AAA	8.333	0.00	4.32	2.16	9.72	0.00
Christiani AA	8.667	0.00	4.15	0.00	9.35	0.00
Box'ger	   AA	8.667	0.00	2.08	6.23	13.50	0.00
Ravin	    A+	17.333	1.56	2.60	6.23	11.42	0.52
Villareal  A+	25.000	2.16	9.72	0.72	6.84	0.72
Bowman	   A+	8.000	2.25	6.75	9.00	6.75	0.00
Smith	   A	23.000	1.17	3.91	1.96	9.00	0.39
Howell	   A	8.667	2.08	6.23	3.12	8.31	0.00
Doyle	   A	12.333	2.19	8.76	1.46	15.32	0.00

[mth123]

Pat Doyle with 21K and 2BB in 12.333 IP. Impressive so far. Anybody have any info on him beyond 6'2", 205 Righty who turns 23 in May?

[mace]

Take your pick from the Bakersfield lineup. At the moment, the Blaze's team batting average (.337) is an amazing 50 points higher than the second-best team. The OBP (.422) leads the pack by .58. The team OPS is .122 ahead of the next. Over 17 games, they've outscored everybody by at least 26 runs.

But the thing is, there's no established hitter in the bunch, other than Henry Rodriguez. Yasmani Grandal has the best pedigree, by far. Eric Campbell, Josh Fellhauer and A.J. Means have had huge starts. And lately--very lately--Stephen Hunt. Obviously, when a team is batting .337, just about everybody's hot.

[mth123]

Take your pick from the Bakersfield lineup. At the moment, the Blaze's team batting average (.337) is an amazing 50 points higher than the second-best team. The OBP (.422) leads the pack by .58. The team OPS is .122 ahead of the next. Over 17 games, they've outscored everybody by at least 26 runs.

But the thing is, there's no established hitter in the bunch, other than Henry Rodriguez. Yasmani Grandal has the best pedigree, by far. Eric Campbell, Josh Fellhauer and A.J. Means have had huge starts. And lately--very lately--Stephen Hunt. Obviously, when a team is batting .337, just about everybody's hot.

I think the league and the park really distort things. My rough, completely gut level, rule of thumb is to treat an OPS of 1.000 on the Blaze the same as .800 some place else. Of course that would make the pitchers look better, but Ravin and Bowman have too many walks while Villareal has a pedestrian K rate. Those things aren't too impacted by the park though the park could start guys nibbling and bump those walk rates I suppose. All three are interesting though. I've thought of Villareal as a sleeper anyway so I'm interested in how he does out there.

[dougdirt]

I think the league and the park really distort things. My rough, completely gut level, rule of thumb is to treat an OPS of 1.000 on the Blaze the same as .800 some place else. Of course that would make the pitchers look better, but Ravin and Bowman have too many walks while Villareal has a pedestrian K rate. Those things aren't too impacted by the park though the park could start guys nibbling and bump those walk rates I suppose. All three are interesting though. I've thought of Villareal as a sleeper anyway so I'm interested in how he does out there.

The drastic nature of the Cal League isn't that large. The average Cal League OPS is quite a bit larger than the other two High A leagues, but only by about 10%, not 25%.

And while the park has its interesting situation in center field, the team isn't really hitting HR's, they are just hitting a million doubles. That team is hitting the ball right now unlike any other team in the league, so it isn't a league thing.

With Ravin, the walks are high, but so are the strikeouts at this point and no one is even hitting the ball hard off of him. He has really good stuff and he has been on with it.

[mace]

I think the league and the park really distort things. My rough, completely gut level, rule of thumb is to treat an OPS of 1.000 on the Blaze the same as .800 some place else. .

Well, yeah, something like that. But the original post didn't deal with raw numbers. The point was the margin by which the Bakersfield hitters lead the league in various categories. Doug pointed out in another thread that Bakersfield is not unusual for that league as a hitters park. So there is no park effect caveat in the fact that the Blaze hitters are dominating the league.

[OnBaseMachine]

Cody Puckett is making me a believer. 2-for-4 with two home runs tonight (#4, 5) and is now hitting .358/.460/.736 - 1.196 OPS with 8 BB/14 K in 61 plate appearances. He's also 4-for-4 in the stolen base department. I wonder if he has the arm or ability to play third base?

[NeilHamburger]

At what point does bringing up Sappelt, and moving Stubbs down in the lineup become a realistic option?

I still feel Stubbs will fit in best as a number 5 type hitter, driving in runs, and Sappelt would look good in the leadoff spot.

I just think right now (especially with Rolen out) this lineup gives the Reds the best shot:

Sappelt
Bruce (i've always liked him hitting in front of Votto)
Votto
Phillips
Stubbs
Hernandez
Cairo
Janish

[RED VAN HOT]

Cody Puckett is making me a believer. 2-for-4 with two home runs tonight (#4, 5) and is now hitting .358/.460/.736 - 1.196 OPS with 8 BB/14 K in 61 plate appearances. He's also 4-for-4 in the stolen base department. I wonder if he has the arm or ability to play third base?

I have been wondering about this as well. My guess would be that his arm is not viewed as strong enough although he did play SS in college. Also, why has Frazier been moved back to LF and Griffin put on 3B? To me, the need to get Frazier more time at 3B has never been greater.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think Grandal is going to have a fabulous year.

[The DARK]

At what point does bringing up Sappelt, and moving Stubbs down in the lineup become a realistic option?

It will once Mesoraco comes up as well. You'd wanna give Stubbs some protection down there in the lineup once Here's how i imagine a future Reds incarnation (late 2012):

Sappelt
Votto
Mesoraco
Bruce
Stubbs
Phillips
Rolen/Francisco
Janish

If Mesoraco can establish himself as the bat he appears to be, he'd be a worthy candidate to separate Votto and Bruce. Votto could exercise his OBP skills as well as power without worry about his protection, while Bruce can be the cleanup hitter he's capable of being. And with Phillips and Rolen behind him, Stubbs can both hit for power and use his stealing abilities depending on the circumstances.

[Drugs Delaney]

Some sort of platoon for Gomes makes a lot of sense and I'd love for Sappelt to be that guy. If he's still putting up numbers come June, he may force the REds hand

[mth123]

Sappelt and Mesoraco have both raised their OPS since the Original Post and Todd Frazier has come on and raised his OPS to .827 while playing a spot where the Reds may need him.

Meanwhile in Dayton, Josh Smith with another 6 innings of dominating performance. 6 IP, 4H, 2BB and 12K. He's a college player and though he didn't attend a major school, he just seems too advanced for Low A. He had little trouble last year in Billings and Dayton in relief. Another month in Dayton without a blow-up and its probably time for a promotion. Kid was a high K pitcher in college. He may be somebody to get a little excited about. I'd like to know more about this kid. He's 23, 6-2, 220 pounds. He's a RH pitcher who was 4th in the nation in K's at Lipscombe and the Reds got him in the 21st Round of last year's draft. More info on him would be appreciated.

[dougdirt]

Solid fastball, outstanding curveball.