One month in - where do the Red's stand

[mu4103]

Record: 13-13 - 3rd place - NL Central
Offense: Tied for 6th in hitting (avg.)
Pitching: 12th in the league in ERA
Here was my prediction on the predictions thread.

79-81:
Sorry I think the Reds over-performed last year.

1. I don't think the pitching will hold up.
2. Bruce is being talked about as an MVP candidate. Remember around the All-Star break and for about a month later, some people were calling for him to be benched or sent down. I think he will have a good year, but I don't think he has a proven track record yet.
3. Joey Votto had a career year. He is a legit superstar, but it is not a given he can do that 2 years in a row.
4. The rest of the IF doesn't impress me as standout (I know most would disagree on Phillips).
5. Sorry, I can't see the team winning as long as Johnny Gomes is in LF.
6. Drew Stubbs still has a .330 OBP and hasn't shown much more in the spring.

Expect the Reds to start out slow. I think there will be (and their best hope is) some serious changes around May. I think Bruce will be good in the OF, but Stubbs and Gomes will struggle. Votto should still be solid.

Somebody in the pitching staff really needs to step up and be the ace and a second pitcher is going to need to be right behind him. The bullpen hopefully will be improved, and Chapman could be a major player if the Reds are to repeat or improve. You can't win a Championship without at least 2 standout top-notch pitchers.

I think the team as it is right now is a 79-81 team. If they make some good moves and a couple of guys step up, I could see them in the NLCS and after that, anything is possible. The nice thing for the Reds is they do have some good young talent.

I feel my prediction (from the prediction thread) has been pretty accurate (saves the prediction that Stubbs would have a slow start and Gomes to a lesser extent). I think the Reds need to look at making a couple changes.

To Start:
Even with the return of the DL players,

1. The Reds need to improve their SP. They need at least a #2 caliber SP. Maybe Dontrelle can step up and fill that roll. (He has shown ace stuff in the past) - but I doubt he will. I don't know how they can get the pitching going, but this is obviously a hitting ballclub.

2. Give their youngsters a shot. Look at Heisey and bring up some other youth to shoot some life in the club. (Fred Lewis is not the answer)

3. I think Bruce will improve. Hitting is not the first problem, but it needs to be addressed.

We shall see - the Reds still have a shot - Dusty needs to stop trusting his midnight epiphonies (not sure of spelling though). I think they need to keep it close to St. Louis or whoever is the first place team at the all-star break, as I do not see them as the best team in the division right now. Then they can make another 2nd half run. Joey V. has been awesome and I hope he keeps it up.

[Jack Burton]

First thing they should do is fire dusty, guy is pretty much clueless. Get a guy in here that knows a thing or two and we blossom. Trim the fat t-bone.

[redram]

I think your prediction is way off. Considering 2 of our rotation starters have not pitched a single pitch and our starting 3rd baseman is on the DL, AND Brandon Phillips missed several games being only 2 games out to me is encouraging. Once we get these players back I can see us running off a long winning streak. If we don't get them back then your prediction could pan out, but when you made this prediction I am thinking you did so thinking we would have had these players in the mix.

[mu4103]

I think your prediction is way off. Considering 2 of our rotation starters have not pitched a single pitch and our starting 3rd baseman is on the DL, AND Brandon Phillips missed several games being only 2 games out to me is encouraging. Once we get these players back I can see us running off a long winning streak. If we don't get them back then your prediction could pan out, but when you made this prediction I am thinking you did so thinking we would have had these players in the mix.

Well every major league team has injuries. But, I think I understimated Phillips. At least Joey V. didn't get injured say like Evan Longoria did. I still think the Reds pitching is not what it needs to be, but hopefully when Cueto (3.64 ERA) and Bailey (4.46 ERA )return, they will prove me wrong.

[tkemmerer14]

Reds record at the end of april last year??? 12 - 11

The sky is not falling, settle down Reds fans

[Maker_84]

First thing they should do is fire dusty, guy is pretty much clueless. Get a guy in here that knows a thing or two and we blossom. Trim the fat t-bone.

lol, +1. I'd had to say this team as of right now is definately not what anyone expected. I was listening to extra innings last night and one caller made a good point how most contenders made moves in the offseason to become and the Reds just stood pat with the average players they have. They are also not surprised Gomes and Rolen haven't come through because they could see at the end of last year Rolen was slowing down and Gomes had been figured out. Having Gomes in the lineup is awful because he gives us nothing, at least Bruce is decent defensively

[Vottomatic]

Sure, the sky is not falling. But this team may simply be just a .500 quality team.

The starting pitching was better and more consistent last year. The bullpen seems better.

But you have 3 regular starting outfielders (Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce) batting something like a combined .225. Two of them are now in the 1 and 2 hole and not getting on base for our rbi-guys. One of them is supposed to be an rbi-guy. This was my biggest complaint of the offseason..........not getting a 4-hole hitter. Rolen is not the answer and Gomes is far from the answer. Gomes and Bruce just don't hit enough with RISP. Bruce is actually horrible at it. Rolen should be hitting 5th or 6th when healthy.

The lineups leave something to be desired. Bring up Sappelt and see if he can get on base and help this team score some more runs. Nothing like a breathe of fresh air to pump some life into a team.

I never understood the Hermida experiment. What is it with Dusty and playing the odd guy out? Geez. How 'bout giving Heisey a chance?

Well everyone is predicting big things when Bailey and Cueto come back to the rotation...........so I'll wait and see if the know-it-alls are right.

[dubc47834]

First thing they should do is fire dusty, guy is pretty much clueless. Get a guy in here that knows a thing or two and we blossom. Trim the fat t-bone.

LOLOL....all Dusty Baker has done since he has been a mananger is WIN. Our team were bottom feeders until he got year. You say it was bound to happen. Well, they had been saying that for a few years, just like Cubbie fans, Wait till next year. I was tired of waiting. Dusty is doing a good job. There are some players that are not performing. Some will, some won't.....EVER. Hiesey is not an everyday player. Look at the spreads between his coming off the bench and starting. The differance is glaring. I want Gomes outa LF as much as the next guy, but who you going to put over there that is a viable option? The pitching has been coming around and since Jay Bruce has been in the 2 hole he bas been better, not a lot, but better. The season isnt even at the 1/4 pole yet and the panic has started. The All-Star break is when I will start worrying.....have a beer panickers...

[lonewolf371]

LOLOL....all Dusty Baker has done since he has been a mananger is WIN. Our team were bottom feeders until he got year. You say it was bound to happen. Well, they had been saying that for a few years, just like Cubbie fans, Wait till next year. I was tired of waiting. Dusty is doing a good job. There are some players that are not performing. Some will, some won't.....EVER. Hiesey is not an everyday player. Look at the spreads between his coming off the bench and starting. The differance is glaring. I want Gomes outa LF as much as the next guy, but who you going to put over there that is a viable option? The pitching has been coming around and since Jay Bruce has been in the 2 hole he bas been better, not a lot, but better. The season isnt even at the 1/4 pole yet and the panic has started. The All-Star break is when I will start worrying.....have a beer panickers...

Are you kidding? Firing the manager after the most successful period in the team's last 20 years is the most logical course of action one can think of!

[ruREaDy2]

I'll bet my house that the Reds don't go 79-81 this year considering they play 162 games in a season.

[arkimadee]

The Reds are actually worse right now than there record indicates. They should have atleast 3 more losses if you count opening day, the Saturday of the Cards series and the last game of the Milwaukee series. I guess you can even make an argument for last night. They are fortunate. That being said I think the pitching will settle down a little this month with Bailey and Cueto coming back and the offense should pick it up a little. I'm still very concerned about this team. If they go .500 again this month, we could be looking at that trend for the rest of the season.

[Stray]

We're okay. We have been dealing with quite a few injuries and Jay Bruce hasn't been hitting. We have a good team and a good manager, we're going to win a lot of games this year.

[DirtyBaker]

I can see the cause for concern but I can also see Bailey and Cueto coming back. Volquez has now had his best two outings. Scott Rolen will be off the DL soon. AND if the marlins and brewers series has taught us anything it that this team doesn't give up.

[Jack Burton]

We're okay. We have been dealing with quite a few injuries and Jay Bruce hasn't been hitting. We have a good team and a good manager, we're going to win a lot of games this year.

Lol

[Stray]

Lol

His 1400+ wins and .522 winning percentage speak for itself.