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Thread: 'Pensacola Blue Wahoos 2012

  1. #1
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    'Pensacola Blue Wahoos 2012

    I know I'm getting ahead of myself here, but I guess we could use this thread to talk about the Reds' 2012 affiliate. Here's how I see the team shaping up next year. Of course you have to keep in mind that all of this can change very drastically in a matter of weeks, but here goes nothing . . .

    C
    Unless Grandal (currently in A+) gets promoted to AAA before Coddington (currently in AA), I think Grandal will be the guy in AA. Coddington is both older and has more seniority. On top of that, it's not a safe bet that Mesoraco will be on the major league roster next year. However, I am very happy to admit that all of that is very far from certain. The backup guy will be Mark Fleury or an organizational guy like McMurray, Weems, or Wideman.

    1B
    If Yonder Alonso makes the big league squad (or is traded), that could put Soto in AAA. But he still has just 9 career games above A+. Count on Chris Richburg to back up.

    2B
    I don't see Kahaulelio repeating here. He's one of the oldest players of all the Reds' minor leaguers. That probably means a promotion for Henry Rodriguez depending on whether Cody Puckett is in AAA or not. Even if Puckett isn't promoted, we could see him getting the majority of ABs in LF.

    3B
    This is a huge question mark. Will Eric Eymann, Mike Griffin, or Eric Campbell still be around? If not, do they stay in-house? If so, who is it? Brodie Greene seems like the only reasonable option unless Henry Rodriguez gets moved. Otherwise, you're looking at Alex Buchholz in AA again.

    SS
    Sure, Miguel Rojas could be gone, but I think the Reds will do what's necessary to keep him around. If they don't, Brodie Greene or Didi Gregorius could get moved up.

    OF
    The outfield looks easiest to predict since they're all having enough success in Bakersfield. We should see Ryan LaMarre, Andrew Means, Stephen Hunt, and Josh Fellhauer. Kyle Day hasn't shown he's ready for AAA yet, so he might repeat. The Reds typically bring in outside acquisitions for AAA, which would likely keep him down anyway. As mentioned earlier, you could always try to plug Puckett in left field.

    SP
    Most or all of Travis Webb, Matt Klinker, Dallas Buck, Jordan Hotchkiss, and Mark Serrano need to be in AAA due to experience and/or age, but outside acquisitions will likely keep one or two of them down. Matt Fairel is a big candidate to repeat the level. A decent year from Clay Shunick, Pedro Villarreal, and Josh Ravin puts them in AA. I think Curt Partch has a good chance of getting cut, but you really can't count him out. J.C. Sulbaran and Pedro Villarreal are a couple of younger guys who could be counted on.

    RP
    There are lots of questions here. It's doubtful that Brad Boxberger will still be in AA, but he's so young that the Reds may want to take it slow with him. It's time for Joe Krebs, Lee Tabor, Jeff Jeffords, and Derrik Lutz to show that 27-year-olds belong in AAA or higher, but I could see any one or two of them in Pensacola next year. It's hard to say whether Donnie Joseph will have made the adjustments to earn a promotion. Nick Christiani seems ready. Justin Freeman looks like he's far from ready to be promoted. Could Blaine Howell move fast? Will Mace Thurman or Chase Ware be ready? Will we see Aguido Gonzalez ever again? Who's going to come in from outside the organization? What's going to happen with James Avery and Ruben Medina? Will Drew Bowman or Scott Gaffney ever become relevant? Is Justin Walker gone for good? Can Tzu-Kai Chiu, Blair Carson, Lance Janke, or Jason Braun step up?

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    You seem to be advancing players to AAA without accounting for the players currently at AAA. How do you see positions opening up in Louisville, other than Mesoraco?

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    You seem to be advancing players to AAA without accounting for the players currently at AAA. How do you see positions opening up in Louisville, other than Mesoraco?
    Just a brief summary:
    C Kevin Coddington - I see him as a backup to a veteran acquisition unless Ramon Hernandez is re-signed for some reason.
    1B Yonder Alonso - I could see a major league roster spot coming down to Alonso or Juan Francisco. If Francisco is optioned this year, he'll likely need to make the Reds out of spring training to stay in the organization.
    2B Chris Valaika - He could get a big chance if Brandon Phillips' option isn't picked up.
    3B Todd Frazier - 3B or LF? Believe it or not, he only has 70 career games at 3B.
    SS Kris Negron - This is assuming Zack Cozart makes the team. Unless Renteria is re-signed, the Reds will have a need for a middle infielder.
    LF Dave Sappelt - I don't know why, but I'm giving Fred Lewis the benefit of the doubt about being with the Reds next year, which would prevent Sappelt from playing in the big leagues.
    CF Felix Perez - He'll be 27 years old. It's time.
    RF Danny Dorn - He'd move to first base if something happens with Alonso. Or he could be gone as the first pick of the rule five draft. (lol)
    C Chris McMurray - A veteran acquisition will probably get most of the playing time here.
    2B Jake Kahaulelio - He'll turn 27 in about a year, so I think we're ready to see him against more advanced pitching.
    SS Alex Buchholz - If he has a good year in Carolina, he might be asked to take on Eric Eymann's role.
    OF Kyle Day - I really don't see him here. They'll bring in someone from outside.
    SP Scott Carroll - Is there any doubt?
    SP Matt Klinker - Maybe the fourth time's a charm to stick in AAA?
    SP Dallas Buck - This assumes he regains any of his previous form. The odds are against him.
    SP Mark Serrano - This is a long shot, but his age says it would be appropriate. I'm thinking he'll end up in AA with a MLFA taking this roster spot.
    SP Travis Webb - It's somewhat perplexing to me that he hasn't been converted to a reliever yet. He put up the best numbers of his career while in rookie ball with a 1.44 WHIP. I'm not a fan.
    SP Jordan Hotchkiss - This is around the time we find out why he doesn't make any top prospects lists.
    RP Phil Valiquette - 2012 should be his make-or-break year.
    RP Jordan Smith - Why not?
    RP Joe Krebs - Organizational filler?
    RP Lee Tabor - Organizational filler?
    RP Jeff Jeffords - He'll turn 27 later this year and has a blazing fastball. He really came on at the end of last year.
    RP Derrik Lutz - Will he ever play? If so, where? He'll be 27 in April.

    Good chance of being out of options: Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure, Daniel Ray Herrera, Daryl Thompson
    Gone?: Kyle McCulloch, Chris Denove, Corky Miller, Eric Eymann, Brian Barton, Mike Griffin, Chad Reineke, Justin Lehr, Tom Cochran, David Johnson, Jerry Gil, James Avery, Ruben Medina, Denis Phipps, Jose Castro, David Cook, Mike Costanzo, Eric Campbell, Quintin Berry, Carlos Mendez.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    It's way too early to be doing this dude. But I'll play.

    Half of the guys you mention are eligible for free agency. I don't know who will resign, if any.

    Soto is eligible to be subjected to the Rule V draft, so they'll have to put him on the 40. Rojas can be a free agent, so they may put him on the 40 as well so he won't leave. Then again they may not.

    Didi and Rodriguez most likely will be up the middle for the Pensacola TBA with Grandal behind the plate.

    That's all I have until later this season.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    I thought Yonder was out of options after this season?

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post
    I thought Yonder was out of options after this season?
    He qualifies for four options, but because he didn't spend enough time on an optional assignment his first year, he didn't use his first one until 2009. The same will be true of Yasmani Grandal, in case you were wondering (must stick with the team in 2015 or be exposed to waivers).

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    OK, thanks. I thought he only got 3 options (including the 1st season that didn't count when he got the paper promotion to the big league club after 18 games in the minors). That kind of changes my long term view of him. After next season, the Reds should have a pretty good handle on signing Votto beyond his current 3 year deal. If it looks certain that Votto is going to test the market, you can either trade him, or put Yonder on the bench for a season to take over in 4 years. If it looks like votto will be willing to resign, then you can move Yonder then. Seems like a nice insurance policy on the free agent aspirations and potential free agent worth of Votto.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Yeah, I used to be on the 'trade Alonso' bandwagon, but I'm completely off of it until Votto's future with the Reds is more certain.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by medford View Post
    OK, thanks. I thought he only got 3 options (including the 1st season that didn't count when he got the paper promotion to the big league club after 18 games in the minors). That kind of changes my long term view of him. After next season, the Reds should have a pretty good handle on signing Votto beyond his current 3 year deal. If it looks certain that Votto is going to test the market, you can either trade him, or put Yonder on the bench for a season to take over in 4 years. If it looks like votto will be willing to resign, then you can move Yonder then. Seems like a nice insurance policy on the free agent aspirations and potential free agent worth of Votto.
    If you have less than five years in the minors and are out of options you get a fourth option year.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    And Camis. About Buchholz, he has to get to Carolina first bruh.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    And Camis. About Buchholz, he has to get to Carolina first bruh.
    How long do you think he'll stay in Bakersfield when he gets back?

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    How long do you think he'll stay in Bakersfield when he gets back?
    No idea. He hasn't played at all this year. Guess they have to see how well he does once he starts playing before they can think about moving him up.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    No idea. He hasn't played at all this year. Guess they have to see how well he does once he starts playing before they can think about moving him up.
    All right, well, I have news. He'll play in Carolina before the year's over.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    All right, well, I have news. He'll play in Carolina before the year's over.
    That is a very good possibility. But until he plays in a game, he's not with Carolina.

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    Re: Pensacola Pelicans 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    That is a very good possibility. But until he plays in a game, he's not with Carolina.
    Well, 'again' or not, Buchholz is the leading candidate for third base in Pensacola next year unless one of the scenarios I mentioned will happen. My money's on the latter.


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