Will Todd Frazier be a bust?

[fearofpopvol1]

First off, let me say I am not saying he IS a bust, I'm asking if you think he will be. And when I say bust, I'm referring to a bust given where he was picked, how well he previously performed and what his prospect status was around RZ.

The facts:

- 25 Years old
- He's being groomed for 3B mostly, and some LF, where the MLB league average OPS is around the .850 mark. Frazier over a full season in AAA OPSed .781.
- Frazier is off to an unexciting start this year, OPSing .742 after 1 month of this season.
- Defensively, Frazier is maybe average or adequate. Maybe below average. He's certainly not above average at 3B. Maybe he could be average in LF? He has struggled to OPS over .800 consistently in Louisville. He's not a plus defensive guy.
- He's not a speedy guy either.

For a while, many at RZ thought he was the 2B, SS, 3B or LF of the future. So what do you think? It's still early, but Frazier isn't getting any younger. And after a disappointing 2010, he's not been impressive thus far in 2011. You could say it's still early, and that's valid to a degree, but what if his numbers are similar at the end of May or June? How long do you give him?

Frazier could still be a backup, but given where many thought he would go, is that a success? Given the expectations?

[cinreds21]

Someone with Baseball America said that a scout told him that he can play third, that he'd be fine there.

[fearofpopvol1]

Someone with Baseball America said that a scout told him that he can play third, that he'd be fine there.

I'm sure he can play 3rd, but he's not going to be above average defensively. He's probably average or adequate. And given that he won't wow anyone with his defense, one would hope his offensive production is/was stronger.

[cinreds21]

I'm sure he can play 3rd, but he's not going to be above average defensively. He's probably average or adequate. And given that he won't wow anyone with his defense, one would hope his offensive production is/was stronger.

Exactly. I wasn't disagreeing with you. I guess it was more of "for what it's worth" thing.

[GOYA]

Hi defense at third shouldn't even be a part of the question. He's pretty good there. His offense however...

Something tells me he can improve his bat. There's something about his approach that isn't working for him and he just needs to find one that does work. He may be trying too hard right now. Whether he can get it figured out is something I don't know.

[camisadelgolf]

I think it's all mental with him. A lot of people might try to point at his swing (and he does have a funky swing), but the mechanics of it are fine if you ask me.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I was under the impression that the reds liked him defensively at third, so much so that they didn't feel like it was an issue at all and wanted to see if he could handle other positions.

But if they are serious now about wanting him to be a full-time 3b, then he needs to start playing there all the time to get more reps. I hate the way they've juggled him all around the diamond. IMO it's effected his hitting as well. Sort of in the same way Mesoraco's bat never really took the next step because all his focus was on improving his defensive skills...once he had those down, the bat jumped off the box scores.

[Mario-Rijo]

I think it's all mental with him. A lot of people might try to point at his swing (and he does have a funky swing), but the mechanics of it are fine if you ask me.

I am a huge Frazier fan and have backed him all the way. That said his swing could indeed be the issue he is susceptible to the inside fastball, the lack of flexibility what with the armbar allows for him to be pounded in. I don't know if he is being pitched hard inside and soft away but I would guess so and not sure he can do anything about it unless he decides to do the unprecedented and fix that armbar. He has probably one of the best work ethics in the organization so I won't count him out but that armbar could cause him problems.

[Benihana]

He has the upside of Mark DeRosa, but IMO is more likely to be a Miguel Cairo-type player without the 2B versatility and the 15 year major league career.

In other words, he'll likely be a backup corner player with a career OPS in the 650-700 range. Is that a bust for a sandwich pick? I'll let you decide.

[RedsManRick]

The facts:

- 25 Years old
- He's being groomed for 3B mostly, and some LF, where the MLB league average OPS is around the .850 mark. Frazier over a full season in AAA OPSed .781.

I'm sorry, but this "fact" is just flat wrong and it's not really close. Here are the guys who attained 400 PA while playing primarily LF (31 guys) and 3B (26)

		LF	3B
.950 and up	 2	 1
.850 to .949	 4	 5
.750 to .849	10	 6
Below .750	15	14

LF Median: .758 (Gomes)
LF Mean: .782

3B Median .727 (Blake, Polanco)
3B Mean: .760

I appreciate your point. The bloom is off the Frazier rose. He's looking like a 2nd division starter or utility guy at best at this point. But let's be realistic. This isn't 2001. An OPS of .850 isn't average even among starters. It's very good for everybody this side of 1B (where it's still above average...).

[GOYA]

Timely post

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/n...=.jsp&sid=l117

[mth123]

Someone with Baseball America said that a scout told him that he can play third, that he'd be fine there.

Same thing they said about him and 2B when they ranked him the #1 prospect in the system. 3B is his best chance to marry his offensive and defensive skills into a productive balance. He doesn't hit enough for 1B or an OF corner and he doesn't have the glove to play up the middle. He could probably spot in anywhere to some productive level, but as an every day player he'd be exposed if he can't play 3B. I hope he can. The Reds may need him as soon as, well, right now.

[dougdirt]

Same thing they said about him and 2B when they ranked him the #1 prospect in the system. 3B is his best chance to marry his offensive and defensive skills into a productive balance. He doesn't hit enough for 1B or an OF corner and he doesn't have the glove to play up the middle. He could probably spot in anywhere to some productive level, but as an every day player he'd be exposed if he can't play 3B. I hope he can. The Reds may need him as soon as, well, right now.

Corner outfielders don't OPS .800 as a whole. In fact, in 2010 left fielders OPS'd .770, while right fielders OPS'd .784. The idea of what you ideally want in a spot and what MLB actually gets from a spot is usually quite a bit different.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm sorry, but this "fact" is just flat wrong and it's not really close. Here are the guys who attained 400 PA while playing primarily LF (31 guys) and 3B (26)

		LF	3B
.950 and up	 2	 1
.850 to .949	 4	 5
.750 to .849	10	 6
Below .750	15	14

LF Median: .758 (Gomes)
LF Mean: .782

3B Median .727 (Blake, Polanco)
3B Mean: .760

I appreciate your point. The bloom is off the Frazier rose. He's looking like a 2nd division starter or utility guy at best at this point. But let's be realistic. This isn't 2001. An OPS of .850 isn't average even among starters. It's very good for everybody this side of 1B (where it's still above average...).

Where did you get those numbers? I'm not saying they are wrong, I just couldn't find them.

I was going off of this list:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-average-does/

Now granted, it's from 2007, but it's definitely a lot newer than 2001. I didn't realize numbers have changed THAT drastically since 2007...but apparently they have?

[camisadelgolf]

Where did you get those numbers? I'm not saying they are wrong, I just couldn't find them.

I was going off of this list:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-average-does/

Now granted, it's from 2007, but it's definitely a lot newer than 2001. I didn't realize numbers have changed THAT drastically since 2007...but apparently they have?

I'm just guessing hear, but the HBT article is the averages of starters, and the data Rick found is the averages of all players.