Its time for the first regular season update of the Reds top prospects. Note that the rankings of players 2-6 are all extremely close and really could be laid out in any order without much of an argument from me. Without further ado...
GRADE A
1. Devin Mesoraco C AAA
GRADE B
2. Dave Sappelt OF AAA
(tie). Yonder Alonso 1B/OF AAA
4. Yasmani Grandal C A+
5. Yorman Rodriguez OF A
6. Billy Hamilton SS A
GRADE C
7. Zack Cozart SS AAA
8. Ismael Guillon LHP R
9. Kyle Lotzkar RHP A
10. Brad Boxberger RHP AA
KEEP AN EYE ON
Josh Smith RHP A
Daniel Corcino RHP A
Ryan LaMarre OF A+
Juan Duran OF A
Ronald Torreyes 2B R
Junior Arias SS/3B R
PROMOTIONS ON THE HORIZON
Yasmani Grandal should be in AA by the end of the month
COMMENTARY
Sappelt vs. Alonso is a tough one for me. Sappelt has cleary outproduced him over the last two years, and he has a much better all-around game (speed and defense). However, I still believe Alonso's bat projects better at the next level. The question will be whether or not he can be good enough defensively to handle LF, and not just because of Joey Votto and the Reds situation. I'm not sure if Alonso's bat will be strong enough to make him better than league average at 1B. So if he wants to be an impact player at the next level, he either needs to start hitting or start fielding a lot better. Sappelt has been crushing the ball for over a year now, but I'm still not completely convinced he will be much better than a Chris Heisey-type at the next level (which is not a terrible thing). I hope I'm wrong, but I would look to sell high on Sappelt for the right return.
As I mentioned above but it's worth repeating, all of the Grade B prospects are very close to each other in overall value IMO. You could completely reverse their order and not get much of an argument from me.
Cozart needs to start hitting as he is 25 in AAA. While he'll never be a real offensive SS at the next level (he's never OPS'd .800 in his professional career), he has to do better than he did in the first month of the season, or he could risk turning into fringe obscurity. He'll likely get his shot next season to compete with Janish if no outside help is brought in, but he's not doing himself any favors with the month that he just completed.
Frazier and Valaika are off the prospect radar for me at this point. I believe they both will have major league careers, but likely not as anything more than backup/utility players. Danny Dorn has been debated ad nauseum on this board so I won't go there, other than to say he's old enough now to have earned some kind of opportunity (which has never been given to him). Another guy who didn't make the list that might raise some eyebrows is Miguel Rojas. Despite his hot start and his even hotter glove, Rojas has never OPS'd .700 in his professional career, and I've never heard of a scout who expects him to. While he might be slick with the glove, I'm not sure how much slicker he is than Janish or Cozart, who both have better offensive tools. With those two in front of him and Hamilton behind him, I'm not sure he'll ever earn the opportunity to make an impact at the big league level, at least not in Cincinnati.
I'd like to see Grandal promoted to AA sometime this month and I'm interested to see how he does there. Mesoraco continues to mash and is starting to get into Top 10 Prospect in all of baseball territory IMO, or at least he will if he keeps this pace up from now until midseason. Ironic that we used to pine for Saltalamacchia, and now the Red Sox would LOVE to replace him with Mez. I'd like to see Guillon and Lotzkar get some innings in Dayton. Josh Smith has been very impressive there so far, and Corcino is not far behind. Boxberger has come out of purgatory to start the year strong. He needs to either get a shot at closing or consider coming back to start. There is no glory for middle relievers in AA, and I really hope he's not the next Sean Watson. With a few bad outings, he could easily fall of this list, much like Donnie Joseph has.
Taking stock of the system, I'd love to get an impact corner bat (especially at 3B) and/or a high upside HS arm in the draft next month.
Thoughts?