Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

[RiverRat13]

Sure he could get to 100 but why would we want him to? That's a ton of wear and tear on his body and it's pointless to expend that much physical capital in A Ball. I don't understand why he's running as much as he is, to be frank. I hope they put the brakes on his stealing soon

A 90 foot sprint is wear and tear?

[medford]

A 90 foot sprint is wear and tear?

I guess its more the wear and tear on all that sliding.

[Superdude]

Yea I don't get the "he'll slow down" and "wear and tear" comments. The guy played wide receiver, so he's probably sprinting on every play all the way through high school. I doubt stealing a base or two a night is overly shocking to his system.

[Sea Ray]

A 90 foot sprint is wear and tear?

Do you really think it's not hard on your body to steal bases? I could find you all kinds of examples but here's one to get you started:

Bet you didn't know that only two shortstops in the entire modern era ever stole more bases in a season than Reyes has stolen already (career high: 64, last season). One is Wills (104 in 1962, and 94 in '65). The other: Would you believe Frank Taveras (70, in 1977)? But that's it.
Think that's a coincidence? Guess again.

"I don't think he's going to steal 100, because of the position he plays and the way he plays," said Rollins, whose own career high is 46 stolen bases, in 2001. "That's a lot you're asking your body to handle."

Rollins attempted 54 steals in 2001, at age 22. Only once, in the five seasons since, has he even been within 10 attempts of that -- and not by accident. The pounding took too much of a toll on his legs, he said, and he needs those legs to play shortstop the way it's supposed to be played.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...son&id=2858489

[Sea Ray]

Yea I don't get the "he'll slow down" and "wear and tear" comments. The guy played wide receiver, so he's probably sprinting on every play all the way through high school. I doubt stealing a base or two a night is overly shocking to his system.

There's a reason why guys who steal 100 bases don't do it every year. Everytime you slide you also take a chance on breaking ankle or twisting something. It's common knowledge that stealing bases is tough physically especially for a 160 lb guy.

To say what you did reminds me of a famous football coach who was asked if he was giving his RB too many carries. After taking a couple puffs of his pipe he replied "Hell, that ball ain't heavy."

[Superdude]

Not claiming to be an authority on the subject and I could be way off, but it just seems like outside of fluke sliding injuries, running under 30 yards is something a trained 20 year old athlete shouldn't have a problem recovering from. Not trying to argue, just seems like an odd concept considering that baseball players, even base stealers, are running significantly less than other athletes.

[dougdirt]

Not claiming to be an authority on the subject and I could be way off, but it just seems like outside of fluke sliding injuries, running under 30 yards is something a trained 20 year old athlete shouldn't have a problem recovering from. Not trying to argue, just seems like an odd concept considering that baseball players, even base stealers, are running significantly less than other athletes.

It isn't just the running, it is also the sliding. Other athletes might run more, but he is sliding a lot more.

[RiverRat13]

So what's the "acceptable" number of stolen bases one can accumulate without the wear and tear?

[Superdude]

It isn't just the running, it is also the sliding. Other athletes might run more, but he is sliding a lot more.

I don't recall sliding being a strenuous activity. This is obviously over my head and Jimmy Rollins must know something, but that just doesn't make any sense to me.

[davereds24]

Not claiming to be an authority on the subject and I could be way off, but it just seems like outside of fluke sliding injuries, running under 30 yards is something a trained 20 year old athlete shouldn't have a problem recovering from. Not trying to argue, just seems like an odd concept considering that baseball players, even base stealers, are running significantly less than other athletes.

He's also not sprinting straight forward, that initial turn to the right is hard on the lower body over time. You also have to account for all the times he dives back into first and tries to steal on foul balls, walks, fly outs, etc.

[REDblooded]

This is an interesting comment. Hamilton is no doubt extremely fast, but Pierre seems like roughly a best case scenario offensively. Practically everyone on this board would have a cow if we traded for Juan Pierre, but for whatever reason, Hamilton is salivated over.

Hamilton is still INCREDIBLY raw. His inadequacies outside of power can be overcome by hard work and time around the game. However, what he excels in, anybody not born with it can not learn it...

As for the Juan Pierre comparison, there's a VAST difference between a speedy shortstop with a good to strong arm vs. a speedy OF'r with a terrible arm...

[Blitz Dorsey]

Hopefully someone that knows what they're doing is working with him EVERY DAY on bunting. If Hamilton can become a good bunter, he will be a dangerous MLB player. If not, I'm not sold.

[Superdude]

Hamilton is still INCREDIBLY raw. His inadequacies outside of power can be overcome by hard work and time around the game. However, what he excels in, anybody not born with it can not learn it...

As for the Juan Pierre comparison, there's a VAST difference between a speedy shortstop with a good to strong arm vs. a speedy OF'r with a terrible arm...

I’m just wondering if he’s just a useful, light hitting infielder instead of a dynamic cornerstone type guy. It's a real tough road cultivating an offensive game with nothing but speed and contact ability. I don’t see how he becomes a good/great offensive player without first developing an absolutely phenomenal ability to put the bat on the ball. A major league pitcher's going to do whatever it takes to not walk a guy with lightning speed and next to no power.

Right now, Hamilton’s striking out almost 30% of the time. That’s Adam Dunn territory. I understand that he’s far from polished and will definitely improve, but a baseline like that doesn’t instill a whole lot of confidence that he’ll be able to put up the kind of contact rates he’ll need at the major league level.

[REDblooded]

I’m just wondering if he’s just a useful, light hitting infielder instead of a dynamic cornerstone type guy. It's a real tough road cultivating an offensive game with nothing but speed and contact ability. I don’t see how he becomes a good/great offensive player without first developing an absolutely phenomenal ability to put the bat on the ball. A major league pitcher's going to do whatever it takes to not walk a guy with lightning speed and next to no power.

Right now, Hamilton’s striking out almost 30% of the time. That’s Adam Dunn territory. I understand that he’s far from polished and will definitely improve, but a baseline like that doesn’t instill a whole lot of confidence that he’ll be able to put up the kind of contact rates he’ll need at the major league level.

The guy is young, didn't play against much top-flight competition in HS, and has been switch hitting for 2 seasons...

Of course he has to make better contact. Clearly. But to even remotely consider writing him off at this point in the very early stages of his development is unfair. Obviously the Reds didn't see him as an instant gratification type of player or they never would have forced him to work on switch-hitting. That same approach by Cleveland is what netted the Reds Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens...

Again. Look at the splits. He has 65 AB's against RHP presumably all while batting left handed, which isn't his natural approach. In 65 ab's, he's hitting .169 with a .250 OBP against LHP while batting right handed he's hitting .286 with a .359 OBP in 35 AB's...

Give him another year or two, follow his development against RHP, and then begin to form an opinion on his ability to make consistent contact. It's too early to do otherwise.

[dougdirt]

Hamilton is still INCREDIBLY raw. His inadequacies outside of power can be overcome by hard work and time around the game. However, what he excels in, anybody not born with it can not learn it...

As for the Juan Pierre comparison, there's a VAST difference between a speedy shortstop with a good to strong arm vs. a speedy OF'r with a terrible arm...

Then there is also the fact that Juan Pierre has incredible contact rates, while Hamilton has been average at best in the past and poor this season.