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View Poll Results: 100 Stolen Bags for Billy this Season?

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Thread: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

  1. #31
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    The guy is young, didn't play against much top-flight competition in HS, and has been switch hitting for 2 seasons...

    Of course he has to make better contact. Clearly. But to even remotely consider writing him off at this point in the very early stages of his development is unfair. Obviously the Reds didn't see him as an instant gratification type of player or they never would have forced him to work on switch-hitting. That same approach by Cleveland is what netted the Reds Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens...

    Again. Look at the splits. He has 65 AB's against RHP presumably all while batting left handed, which isn't his natural approach. In 65 ab's, he's hitting .169 with a .250 OBP against LHP while batting right handed he's hitting .286 with a .359 OBP in 35 AB's...

    Give him another year or two, follow his development against RHP, and then begin to form an opinion on his ability to make consistent contact. It's too early to do otherwise.
    Juan Pierre's career strikeout rate is 6.2%, and even with that, his overall offensive production hasn't been anything to gush over. It's REALLY hard to be productive without power.

    As I said, I would be shocked if Hamilton continued to strikeout 30% of the time given his age and relative inexperience, but I feel like prospects who go onto become elite contact type hitters have a certain level of hand-eye coordination to begin with. So far in his pro career, he just hasn't shown that at all.

    I'm not writing him off though. If he can just hold his own with the bat, his defensive value alone(with more consistency) could make him pretty valuable at shortstop

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Juan Pierre's career strikeout rate is 6.2%, and even with that, his overall offensive production hasn't been anything to gush over. It's REALLY hard to be productive without power.

    As I said, I would be shocked if Hamilton continued to strikeout 30% of the time given his age and relative inexperience, but I feel like prospects who go onto become elite contact type hitters have a certain level of hand-eye coordination to begin with. So far in his pro career, he just hasn't shown that at all.

    I'm not writing him off though. If he can just hold his own with the bat, his defensive value alone(with more consistency) could make him pretty valuable at shortstop
    I don't think Hamilton ever becomes an elite contact hitter, but I think he could become a stronger contact hitter than he has been this season and maybe even get into that 15% range (K/PA). One thing to note is that while he does have a solid walk rate, he is often fooled on what pitch is coming to the plate, leaving him lunging forward at the ball more than you would like to see. Pitch recognition is going to need to improve for him to get there. When Hamilton can keep his weight back, he can show some good gap power from both sides of the plate (much like Didi Gregorius who also gets on his front foot more often than you would like to see, but has solid pop when he keeps his weight back).

  4. #33
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Even if he cuts his strikeout rate in half, he's still likely to struggle. If you give him 500AB, a 15% K/AB, a .300BABIP, and say 5 home runs; Hamilton's barely cracking .260 with the batting average.

    I like Hamilton, but there's a sort of "star in the making" aura around him(probably BA's fault) that just seems very unlikely to happen from where I sit.

  5. #34
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Even if he cuts his strikeout rate in half, he's still likely to struggle. If you give him 500AB, a 15% K/AB, a .300BABIP, and say 5 home runs; Hamilton's barely cracking .260 with the batting average.

    I like Hamilton, but there's a sort of "star in the making" aura around him(probably BA's fault) that just seems very unlikely to happen from where I sit.
    The odds of Hamilton having a .300 BABIP is pretty unlikely. Even with weak contact it would surprise me. He is that fast.

  6. #35
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    I guess its more the wear and tear on all that sliding.
    I understand there is a risk of injury when you slide.

    But then I started thinking about it more. Starting running backs in college and professional levels routinely get more than 100 carries a season - the best get 200 or more carries - and a good proportion of them make it through a full season. Granted they have pads on, but the violence in football is probably more than just sliding into a base. So why can't a baseball player go for 100 steals a year? Maybe you can say football players have a week to recover in between games whereas a baseball player has to play almost every day, especially if they are going to go for 100 steals.

    Theoretically I don't see a reason why wear and tear is such a big factor, but I guess in practice it is.

  7. #36
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Quote Originally Posted by JKam View Post
    I understand there is a risk of injury when you slide.

    But then I started thinking about it more. Starting running backs in college and professional levels routinely get more than 100 carries a season - the best get 200 or more carries - and a good proportion of them make it through a full season. Granted they have pads on, but the violence in football is probably more than just sliding into a base. So why can't a baseball player go for 100 steals a year? Maybe you can say football players have a week to recover in between games whereas a baseball player has to play almost every day, especially if they are going to go for 100 steals.

    Theoretically I don't see a reason why wear and tear is such a big factor, but I guess in practice it is.
    If the SB were the only times a guy had to run, it would be on thing. But he's also in full sprint almost every other time he's running and while fielding. Also, the RB is going what, 15-20 feet on average per carry? Baseball players are covering a lot more ground. Have those RBs go 30 yards each time and see how they hold up.

    But I think the bigger thing is recovery. The nagging injuries that might go away in a few days of rest just don't get a chance to get away. And a RB can still carry the ball at 80 or 90% and pick up yards. With SB, the margins are just so small. If you're not feeling top notch, it's probably not worth the risk.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #37
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    If the SB were the only times a guy had to run, it would be on thing. But he's also in full sprint almost every other time he's running and while fielding. Also, the RB is going what, 15-20 feet on average per carry? Baseball players are covering a lot more ground. Have those RBs go 30 yards each time and see how they hold up.
    You've got to be kidding.

    RBs also run when they are not carrying the ball. They run pass routes. Worse yet, they sometime stay in the backfield and take on a 250 lb linebacker coming at them at full steam.

    Also it is not like a baseball player is running on each of the 27 outs when they are fielding. Sometimes there is a strikeout. You think a lot of fielders are running then? And when it is not a strikeout, not every ball is hit at the same guy everytime. Granted fielders have to cover and do other things even if the ball isn't hit at them, but you think a 1B runs more than a quarter mile in a game?

    Also baseball players may be going all out on each run when they do run and may be going a little further, but they are usually going in straight lines where as RBs have to cut on a dime putting much more stress on their ankles and knees. And then on top of that they have to deal with 300 lb lineman piling on top of them. Sorry no comparison.

    But I think the bigger thing is recovery. The nagging injuries that might go away in a few days of rest just don't get a chance to get away. And a RB can still carry the ball at 80 or 90% and pick up yards. With SB, the margins are just so small. If you're not feeling top notch, it's probably not worth the risk.
    You think you can run at 80% with 11 guys chasing after you waiting to rip your leg off has no margin for error? I agree that having a week off helps with recovery time and acknowledged that in my original post, but are you trying to persuade me that trying to steal a base once a day is anything close to carrying the ball 10-20 times a game with 11 BIG guys chasing you, hitting you and piling on top of you?
    Last edited by JKam; 05-09-2011 at 02:19 AM.

  9. #38
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Don't like turning righthanders into switch hitters. It makes even less sense for speedy guys who have trouble finding first. The half-step gained doesn't compensate for the fall-off at the plate. Spend the time and energy on bunting and chopping.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  10. #39
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Don't like turning righthanders into switch hitters. It makes even less sense for speedy guys who have trouble finding first. The half-step gained doesn't compensate for the fall-off at the plate. Spend the time and energy on bunting and chopping.
    Spend the time on learning to hit better. Learning to chop the ball is an absolutely terrible idea. Learn to make contact a lot more often on pitches in the zone. Learn to not swing at pitches out of the zone. But learn to chop the ball? That is how you ruin a player's potential.

  11. #40
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Don't like turning righthanders into switch hitters. It makes even less sense for speedy guys who have trouble finding first. The half-step gained doesn't compensate for the fall-off at the plate. Spend the time and energy on bunting and chopping.
    Chopping? Sorry but this isn't fast pitch softball.

  12. #41
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Quote Originally Posted by JKam View Post
    You've got to be kidding.

    RBs also run when they are not carrying the ball. They run pass routes. Worse yet, they sometime stay in the backfield and take on a 250 lb linebacker coming at them at full steam.

    Also it is not like a baseball player is running on each of the 27 outs when they are fielding. Sometimes there is a strikeout. You think a lot of fielders are running then? And when it is not a strikeout, not every ball is hit at the same guy everytime. Granted fielders have to cover and do other things even if the ball isn't hit at them, but you think a 1B runs more than a quarter mile in a game?

    Also baseball players may be going all out on each run when they do run and may be going a little further, but they are usually going in straight lines where as RBs have to cut on a dime putting much more stress on their ankles and knees. And then on top of that they have to deal with 300 lb lineman piling on top of them. Sorry no comparison.



    You think you can run at 80% with 11 guys chasing after you waiting to rip your leg off has no margin for error? I agree that having a week off helps with recovery time and acknowledged that in my original post, but are you trying to persuade me that trying to steal a base once a day is anything close to carrying the ball 10-20 times a game with 11 BIG guys chasing you, hitting you and piling on top of you?
    The difference is that baseball is a finesse game. Think about how precise the physics have to be for a batter to solidly hit the ball. Any nagging injury here or there can throw off a players timing, swing, pitching, etc. Witness Ubaldo with his fingernail injury. It sounds stupid, but that stuff has a legitimate adverse effect.

    It's not really a matter of not being able to sprint to steal a base, it's more about not disrupting the intricacies needed for successful pitching/hitting.

    It's a lot easier for RB to break off a run with a minor injury than it is for a batter to get a hit.

  13. #42
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Quote Originally Posted by JKam View Post
    I understand there is a risk of injury when you slide.

    But then I started thinking about it more. Starting running backs in college and professional levels routinely get more than 100 carries a season - the best get 200 or more carries - and a good proportion of them make it through a full season. Granted they have pads on, but the violence in football is probably more than just sliding into a base. So why can't a baseball player go for 100 steals a year? Maybe you can say football players have a week to recover in between games whereas a baseball player has to play almost every day, especially if they are going to go for 100 steals.

    Theoretically I don't see a reason why wear and tear is such a big factor, but I guess in practice it is.
    RB is about the worst analogy you can make if you want to show how a player does not wear down. RBs wear down more quickly than any other football position. If you're saying that stealing 100 bases is akin to playing RB then I say don't do it because RB is clearly hard on you physically

  14. #43
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Maybe the organization should ask a few players to stop hitting so many extra base hits. Running those extra bases wears them down. Maybe they should swing a little softer too.

    Sometimes this place can get a little ridiculous.

  15. #44
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Welcome to the internet, GOYA.

  16. #45
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    Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

    Yeah... This thread facepalm'd quick
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