Billy now has 24 SB in 33 games.
Billy now has 24 SB in 33 games.
Stealing bases is fundamentally different. A failure on a steal attempt does much more harm the to the team than a failure on a given rushing attempt. And there is no gray area, no SB equivalent to a rush for no gain. It's a yes or a no, a base or an out. If the RB is a bit banged up, he'll still get carries and can be moderately effective. If a baserunner is banged up, his chances of success drop precipitously and he's quite likely to not run at all.
If a RB tweaks a hamstring, he may push through it. And after that game, he's got a week to recover without losing any rushing opportunities. If a baserunner has a tweaked hamstring, he's not stealing bases. And because there are so few days off, he's constantly missing chances to steal as he recovers.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Nice logic, RMR. Hadn't considered it like that. Makes sense.
"You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
-- Christy Matthewson
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
-- Leo Durocher
Billy now has 32 SB in 40 games.
Projection to a 138 game season:
I'd like to reopen this debate for RB/Baseball/Injury Impact of Running Bases opinions.
2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)
What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?
Speaking of Henderson, he was successful in 80.7% of his attempts as a big leaguer. Billy Hamilton is successful 84.1% of the time for his career against weaker competition. But to be fair, the value of stolen base attempts was less understood back in Henderson's day, so he probably would've been more efficient if his prime were today.
I guess what I'm saying is this: before you can convert a stolen base to OPS, you need to determine the value of a stolen base. In order to do that, you need to decide on the context.
Are we talking about a player with average speed with an average success rate? Or a player with 80 speed who is successful in more than 80% of his attempts? If you go with the latter, what good does that do you in determining OPS?
The reason I ask is because a player with 80 speed will also turn singles into doubles and triples into home runs, so are we talking about a .500 OPS when factoring his speed? Not only that, but he'll also find more ways to score from second base on a single, so if you're looking to find out his overall value as a hitter and runner, you'll probably want to look at it from an angle of WAR as opposed to OPS.
I'm just wondering what a .500ish OPS translated too with 100 SB's (let's say at 84% success rate). I think it would probably better represented in RC.
Obviously .500 stinks, but those extra bases from steals should level it off. And combine that with a playing a defense-oriented position, such as SS and CF (his future IMO) and it changes the way we look at it.
For example, if Paul Janish had nearly 30 SB's right now, even his putrid OPS would seems tolerable. I was just wondering if anyone had a ball park guess as to what a .500 OPS would be the equivalent to - with all those steals.
I don't know why the concern over Billy's OPS right now. We all know he is a project. If he learns to hit, then we may have something. In the meantime, he steals bases in low A.
Not worried about it. Just wondering how so many SB's can alter the value of it.
Billy picked up his 40th in the Dragons' 48th game.
In case people wonder, that's 12 more steals than anyone in baseball right now.
Unofficial Johnny Cueto Cy Young Campaign President For Reds Fans by a Reds Fan
Johnny Cueto's Next Start:
JUNE 27, 10:15 PM ET @ AT&T Park
Crushing their heads!