## View Poll Results: 100 Stolen Bags for Billy this Season?

Voters
49. You may not vote on this poll
• Yes

20 40.82%
• No

29 59.18%

# Thread: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

1. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Billy now has 60 SB after the Dragon's 82nd game.

Projection to a 138 game season:

101 SB

3. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Definitely slowing down, hopefully he can make it.

4. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Billy picked up #68 in game #91 for the Dragons.

5. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Now up to 69.

6. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Billy got his 78th SB in game 111.

Projected to 138 games: 97 SB

And his batting avg is now up to .260.

7. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

I'd love to see a guy stealing 80 -100 bases again. It made things so exciting.

8. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg
What does 100 SB's combined with a .500 OPS equate to? Seriously. .750?
A few things to remember:
- It's not the total number of stolen bases that matters, it's the combined value of stolen bases and caught stealing.
- You have remember that stolen bases don't advance other runners. A single and a SB is less valuable than a double.

Here's a very rough of the envelope calculation. Hamilton currently has a .330 wOBA on a .670 OPS (.260/.321/.349). Fangraphs wOBA includes SB & CS. To date, he's been worth 58 RC (+wRC of 105).

The run value of going from a guy on first base and no out, to a guy on 2B with no out (using Tango's 1969-1992 run environment) is .853 to 1.102, a gain of .25 runs. The cost of getting thrown out is .6 runs. (71% break even). With one out, it's +.17 and -.41 (71%). So they're basically the same, let's just use 0 outs to keep it simple.

He's stolen 78 and been caught 16 times. That adds up to +19.5 runs and minus 9.6 runs. So he's basically added 10 runs so far.

Given his number of PA, 55 RC is average. If we subtract out the roughly 10 runs his legs have added, he'd be about 48 RC, which would make his wRC+ 82 instead of 105. Now, OPS and wOBA aren't linearly related, since OPS underweights OBP, but let's just use it to make an estimate. Let's say his .654 OPS is an 82 OPS+. That would make average 798. That would make an OPS+ of 105 .838, a 184 boost. Chop 154 points off of that to make the original OPS 500 and you'd get a conversion to 684.

I know there are all sorts of problem with the conversions here for a number of reasons and I don't know how off it is, but it is what it is.

Here's a site which shows a .330 wOBA as equivalent to about a .760 OPS That would suggest his 62 SB to be worth about 100 points of OPS.

So, if we want a SUPER back of the envelope calculation, let's just call every net SB worth about 2 points of OPS over the course of a season.

9. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Originally Posted by RedsManRick
A few things to remember:
- It's not the total number of stolen bases that matters, it's the combined value of stolen bases and caught stealing.
- You have remember that stolen bases don't advance other runners. A single and a SB is less valuable than a double.

Here's a very rough of the envelope calculation. Hamilton currently has a .330 wOBA on a .670 OPS (.260/.321/.349). Fangraphs wOBA includes SB & CS. To date, he's been worth 58 RC (+wRC of 105).

The run value of going from a guy on first base and no out, to a guy on 2B with no out (using Tango's 1969-1992 run environment) is .853 to 1.102, a gain of .25 runs. The cost of getting thrown out is .6 runs. (71% break even). With one out, it's +.17 and -.41 (71%). So they're basically the same, let's just use 0 outs to keep it simple.

He's stolen 78 and been caught 16 times. That adds up to +19.5 runs and minus 9.6 runs. So he's basically added 10 runs so far.

Given his number of PA, 55 RC is average. If we subtract out the roughly 10 runs his legs have added, he'd be about 48 RC, which would make his wRC+ 82 instead of 105. Now, OPS and wOBA aren't linearly related, since OPS underweights OBP, but let's just use it to make an estimate. Let's say his .654 OPS is an 82 OPS+. That would make average 798. That would make an OPS+ of 105 .838, a 184 boost. Chop 154 points off of that to make the original OPS 500 and you'd get a conversion to 684.

I know there are all sorts of problem with the conversions here for a number of reasons and I don't know how off it is, but it is what it is.

Here's a site which shows a .330 wOBA as equivalent to about a .760 OPS That would suggest his 62 SB to be worth about 100 points of OPS.

So, if we want a SUPER back of the envelope calculation, let's just call every net SB worth about 2 points of OPS over the course of a season.

Thanks for the breakdown, Rick. That was very interesting for me to read.

10. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Rick -- I appreciate that breakdown but here are some things you can't calculate. The time and energy the pitcher focuses on the guy at first. How many more fastballs are thrown when he is on to keep it interesting if he runs? Are pitchers afraid to bounce a breaking ball with him on base?

11. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Originally Posted by penantboundreds
Rick -- I appreciate that breakdown but here are some things you can't calculate. The time and energy the pitcher focuses on the guy at first. How many more fastballs are thrown when he is on to keep it interesting if he runs? Are pitchers afraid to bounce a breaking ball with him on base?

How many pitches the next batter is told to take because the manager wants the runner to steal and leads to him getting behind in the count or looking at the best pitch he gets to swing at all night. How many times he makes weak contact on a hit and run to "protect" the plate.

It goes both ways.

12. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Doug -- I certainly agree to an extent but anytime you can take the attention off the hitter that is a good thing. And if a good enough hitter is behind him (Votto) then a hit and run/take sign may not be a good idea.

13. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Originally Posted by dougdirt
How many pitches the next batter is told to take because the manager wants the runner to steal and leads to him getting behind in the count or looking at the best pitch he gets to swing at all night. How many times he makes weak contact on a hit and run to "protect" the plate.

It goes both ways.
Good points however when you have a guy hitting .390 in the two hole behind you then what?

14. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

Originally Posted by penantboundreds
Rick -- I appreciate that breakdown but here are some things you can't calculate. The time and energy the pitcher focuses on the guy at first. How many more fastballs are thrown when he is on to keep it interesting if he runs? Are pitchers afraid to bounce a breaking ball with him on base?

Of course, but those things don't show up in a guy's OPS either. That was the question at hand -- not overall offensive value. I can't find the study, it might have been in The Book, but I believe the studies have shown that the effect of simply having a guy on 1B vs. not having a guy on 1B makes a bigger difference than whether or not the guy on 1B is fast. (in large part due to fielder positioning).

It's worth taking in to account, but if it matters, it's marginal.

On the flip side. Let's say we're down 2 runs and Hamilton is on first. Joey Votto is up. Phillips is on deck. Hamilton steals 2B. Votto gets walked. Was that a net plus compared to the range of possible outcomes with Votto at the plate and being pitched to? As Doug said, there are a number of possible impacts.

Yes.

16. ## Re: Billy Hamilton - 100 SB this season?

So suck it to the 29 people who said no? lol

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