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Thread: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

  1. #1
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    When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    He's got an OPS around .900, about top 10 in the NL.

    My vote is never.


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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    I don't know, but I feel sure Thom Brennaman will be among the first to tell us.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #3
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Looks like he's the first slugger in the history of baseball to be a feast or famine type of offensive player
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  5. #4
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    I hope never. I think the only thing one can ask for is a little more consistency. After being amazingly consistent over the first 3 months of 2010 (OPSs of .833, .827, .825), he has looked like Janish, Pujols, Pujols, Gomes, Pujols over the next 5. If he can get those valleys up a bit more, he will be an absolute stud. Not that he isn't a stud now.

    Just noticed one other weird stat from this year regarding Jay. In wins his OPS is only .774 and in losses it is 1.029. His production has been somewhat inverse to the Reds success, which I guess makes sense when looking at how the season has played out so far and how Jay's year has been a tale of two seasons.

    For comparison's sake, last year he was 1.103 in wins and .497 in losses. Once would assume 2011 will even out over the rest of the year.

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Watching Bruce right now is a real pleasure. Even my non-baseball fan wife commented on how confident he looks at the plate right now. "He isn't hunched over like he usually is. He looks like he means business."

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    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Hopefully never. They need him to continue this and more since LF and SS have turned into black holes offensively.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Never, or its baseball equivalent, when he's too old to catch up to the good fastball. About age 42, in his case, I project.

  9. #8
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by reds1869 View Post
    "He isn't hunched over like he usually is. He looks like he means business."
    Not twitching as much anymore (he still twitches, a lot). Gotta check on the "lip curl", too, that's a giveaway for when he's nervous.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I don't know, but I feel sure Thom Brennaman will be among the first to tell us.
    True, but will he find it "UNBELIEVABLE" or will he be "ABSOLUTELY STUNNED"?

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Jay Bruce's May Survey (Fangraphs)

    So what, if anything, is behind Bruce’s latest surge?

    For one, Bruce has lowered his strikeout rate from 27.8 to 19.8 in May. The lowered strikeout rate has likely led to increased contact and walks for Bruce, leading to his ridiculous slash line over the month. While his .333 BABIP for the month of May seems high, there’s some reason to believe it may be sustainable.

    After suffering from poor luck in 2009, Bruce finished last season with a .334 BABIP. Much of that increase was due to Bruce’s great line drive rate. Sure enough, Bruce has regained his ability to spray line drives all over the field this month. After scuffling with just 5.6% line drives through the month of April, Bruce has been able to increase that number to 17.7% in May.

    While it’s reasonable to expect Bruce to continue hitting line drives at a high rate, it’s unlikely his big power surge will continue. Over the month of May, Bruce has managed to hit 24.2% of his fly balls out of the ballpark, an unsustainable rate going forward.
    Synopsis:
    - Striking out less (sustainable)
    - Making more good contact (sustainable)
    - Getting HR "lucky" on fly balls (unsustainable)

    But that's for the streak itself. Will he continue to hit a HR every 10 AB? No. But his season-long rates are all sustainable. The only thing that concerns me is that he's traded a good chunk of LD% for FB%. But classification there can be a touchy thing. If he's hitting towering line drives that clear fences, I have no problems with them being classified as fly balls.

    From a scouting perspective, he still has a healthy uppercut in his swing and has some extra action before he gets the bat to the zone. So he's going to continue to strike out a fair bit and hit a lot of fly balls (and less line drives). If Joey Votto is like Pujols, Bruce is like Adam Dunn. Bruce is a classic "slugger" who will hit 4th or 5th and hit a bunch of HR and RBI without ever hitting for a huge average unless his BABIP spikes.

    What I'd give for a Matt Holliday-type, right-handed high-OBP guy to bat cleanup. A 28 year old Scott Rolen would have been perfect! I actually think Todd Frazier has an outside chance of being that guy in 2 years or so.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    True, but will he find it "UNBELIEVABLE" or will he be "ABSOLUTELY STUNNED"?
    Not to mention that it has to happen "RIGHT HERE AND RIGHT NOW". I'm really getting sick of that phrase.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  13. #12
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    Not to mention that it has to happen "RIGHT HERE AND RIGHT NOW". I'm really getting sick of that phrase.
    "Boy, you aren't kidding about that."

  14. #13
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    In case you're bored at the CPU and want to help him get to the All-Star Game:
    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2011/ballot.jsp

    There's the ballot. If he was a Cardinal, Phillie, Dodger, etc. he would be there. Let's send him to Arizona.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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  15. #14
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    True, but will he find it "UNBELIEVABLE" or will he be "ABSOLUTELY STUNNED"?
    You know "(HE) hates to keep making an issue out of this, but it bears repeating..."
    Championships Matter.
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    Re: When Will Jay Bruce Stop Hitting?

    You know "(HE) hates to keep making an issue out of this, but it bears repeating..."
    "1 for 19 with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. 1 for 19!!!"
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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