Back to the point of the thread... I havent pushed the panic button yet, but I did dig it out of the closet tonight and I'll have it close by during this homestand...
Back to the point of the thread... I havent pushed the panic button yet, but I did dig it out of the closet tonight and I'll have it close by during this homestand...
What is the basis for projecting what an NFL team is doing to the track record of the Castellini-owned Reds? I see very little similarity, so I'd be interested in hearing of some evidence you use to arrive at the conclusion.Originally Posted by CrackerJack
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
I think the Reds really have to consider letting go of the stranglehold on the prospects and look to get some rotation help for this season.
Looking at some clubs that are struggling and probably going nowhere, I wonder what the Cubs would be looking for to get Dempster 2.0? Mike Pelfrey (change of scenery idea)? What are some other realistic targets for some short term help in the rotation?
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles might not be a bad target if they decide to get some starting help. He's been a solid pitcher in a tough division for a few years now and usually gets hit by the 'no offense' bug that sometimes happens with Reds pitchers (hey, he'd fit in well here, LOL). Just a thought.
I'm not panicking about the team yet but I do feel so bad for the guys with all these injuries. That has to be demoralizing for the team to see so many guys go on the DL in such a short amount of time. Hopefully this homestand turns things around and gets the guys going again. Cueto pitched amazing tonight and hopefully he gets things going for the starting staff again.
"I tried to play golf, but I found out I wasn't very good." -Joey Votto on his offseason hobby search
An MLB.com reporter asked what one thing Votto couldn’t do. “I can’t skate or play hockey,” Votto said. “Well, I can skate ... but I can’t stop.”
It's a small market approach with little risk and the acceptance of sustainable rewards in attendance and TV money based on a realistic ceiling of a division winner type every 5 years or so....not a stat.
I wouldn't compare Cast to Brown by any means, other than they are business-first, win next, the way it is. I was disappointed by the complete lack of effort to truly upgrade LF, and the seemingly somewhat poor over-valuation of guys like Gomes, Volquez, Renteria, Janish and Rolen in the off-season.
Just my opinion I suppose. Not really that down on them, just hope to see a good move or two outside of the org to bring some help in before next season.
The whole panic button thing is kind of funny. Who is ever going to admit that they are "pushing the panic button"? Even when things are at their worst, it's human nature to say, "I'm not hitting the panic button yet, but....blah blah blah."
Question. When the majority finally say it's indeed okay to hit the panic button, is it probably too late by then? And what does hitting hitting the panic button do when it's too late? What does it do if hit prematurely? I say by the time this board agrees that, yes, it's okay to hit the panic button, the season will be long over. Not that it matters when we all agree it's time to panic anyway.
Eventually the the new topic will be the horrendous luck this team has had and who to protect in the Rule V. lol.
I have at least some degree of faith that the everyday lineup is fixable. It may come slower than we'd like, and it may come from a combination of in-house options or trades, but I think it'll get done.
But if the pitching staff continues to be held together with duct tape and baling wire and the team struggles to keep its head at or above .500, then it has to be considered -- is this a year where it makes sense to push in a bunch of chips on a rental? It's been written before on this forum that sometimes you choose the year and sometimes the year chooses you. To which I'll add, sometimes the year just waggles its finger and says "nuh-uh." Too early to tell just yet.
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
I like the Guthrie idea and have wondered what it would take to get him myself (Alonso makes sense in Baltimore). The Orioles have a young talented rotation and Guthrie is a stabilizing vet. I think it would be a mistake for them to deal him. Too many kids in a rotation at once leads to burning them all up and leaving you with nothing. I think the O's would be better off knowing that they at least have one guy that doesn't need to be babied as they go through the rotation. It allows them to err on the side of caution with the developing kids. Maybe he'll be available in late July, but by then it may be too late.
I'd be on the phone with the O's if I were Walt and one of the young, blocked position guys wouldn't be off limits.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I'm kind of surprised, with Walt's history, that a move hasn't been made yet. The whole idea of a farm system is the provide talent for the major league team and to provide chips for blockbuster trades. I'm not understanding the seeming reluctance on his part to move a couple of prospects when there clearly is a need for some players on the Reds whether it be another bat or a front line starting pitcher. You guys have a very deep farm system and I don't think it would be destroyed with a move or two. The divisional opponents ahead of the Reds right now are for real. I know there was expectation that the Cardinals would fall back as the season goes along but they just keep winning and do have a good team. The Brewers are also going to be in the thick of things all year long. That is a very good team. Maybe I'm speaking out of turn considering I'm not a Reds fan and maybe I should be criticized by everyone for being critical of Reds management but at this current pace, I don't see the Reds being in contention towards the end of the year if certain moves aren't made.
I'm pretty close to hitting the panic button. If the Reds blow the Brew Crew series, they are going to be in big trouble.
I think its all about money. The Reds couldn't afford the type of players needed to stabilize the rotation or solidify the middle of the order, so the team went with some low budget acquisitions like Renteria, Lewis and bringing back Cairo (and needed to get a concession from Arroyo in exchange for more years to afford that) and did a lot of hoping.
They hoped that they would be able to fill out the rotation by banking on Arroyo and Cueto along with two unproven kids with promise (Wood and Leake) and two guys who weren't really all that established themselves coming off of significant injuries (Volquez and Bailey) with a bunch of 4A types in reserve (Maloney, Lecure, etc.). Even in Spring Training, when Arroyo's illness surfaced and Bailey and Cueto both went down with arm problems, the only response was to ask minor league reclamation project Dontrelle Willis to go back to starting instead of continuing his rebirth as a LOOGY. They clearly needed another reliable arm who didn't have so many question marks and if they weren't convinced in December, the events of Spring Training should have driven the point home. Instead we heard talk of depth, and while true to some degree, that depth had to have a lot of things go right for it to pan out. I don't call that planning, I call that hoping. Now they are hoping that minor league journeyman like Chad Reineke and Tom Cochran can save them or that Willis will get healthy and rediscover 2005.
On offense, they hoped for Rolen to provide the third piece for the middle of the order even though the warning signs concerning his shoulder sapping his power were clearly evident in the second half of 2010. They chose to ignore pursuing an upgrade for LF to play that offensive role and settled for a cast of retreads (Gomes, Lewis, Hermida) and unprovens (Heisey, Sappelt, Alonso, Frazier) with lesser impact. This weakness was masked for a while by guys like Hernandez and Phillips putting up OPS numbers in the 1.000 range to start the season. But now the easy schedule that contibuted to the hot offensive start has toughened, Hernandez has dropped below .900 and Phillips has normalized dropping to .800. Meanwhile the clean-up spot is manned by a guy with an OPS of .713. With these guys normalizing, the .500ish OPS at SS is revealing itself as an issue. It seems now the best hope is that a converted first baseman can come to the big leagues and make a rookie impact. As soon as he proves in AAA that he can play LF without tripping over his own feet on every fly ball, I'd guess he'll be here. But he'll still be just another unproven that we hope pans out.
Hopefully, they have enough in the budget to make a couple of moves in July. The cost of acquiring guys then may be affordable since the salaries will be over half spent already. I still think this is an 85 to 90 win team. I just think hoping for that to be good enough is another mistake.
Last edited by mth123; 05-30-2011 at 07:27 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Sounds like a hypothesis, but not sure you can even turn it into a theory at this point. Going after and signing Chapman, drafting 1st round draft picks that are known tough signs and would be demanding a major league contract, extending young core players. Castellini has made a lot of up front investment that he has yet to get any return on, so I'm not sure its fair to paint him in the "business first" mold. I just have a lot of problems with your caricature and analogy.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
There's a reason big in-season trades are practically never made before, say, mid-June, and infrequently before the All-Star break. It's because it takes two teams to trade. Memorial Day is too early for teams to wave the white flag, which is what they're doing when moving a key player for prospects. They have a whole summer of trying to sell tickets ahead, after all. And they know multiple buyers will be lined up in about six weeks, so they're not going to take an offer today unless they think there's no way anyone would possibly beat it later. Which logically infers the Reds would be overpaying.
Now, sometimes it makes sense to overpay if it gets you exactly what you need. But -- like I mentioned in a previous post in this thread -- the Reds, today, are not in a "one missing piece" situation. They have multiple things to get fixed and it may not be optimal to blow all their trading chips on one guy.
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
I would agree with this. I think they just need to ride out the next 45 days and see what transpires. Getting one starting pitcher still leaves them at best one short, without addressing LF, SS or 3B (not that 3B will be addressed sans injury). My guess is that this just isn't their year and may be better served if they fall 8 - 10 games out mid July to look at moving Phillips or Arroyo instead of gambling on 1 player making that big an impact in THIS season.
It's possible it's just not their year, yeah. But I'm thinking we might see the in-house shuffling start soon. They need to find a way to stay in it until other teams are ready to deal, and then maybe the big trade happens.
Reading comprehension is not just an ability, it's a choice
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