Every contending team has a certain amount of slack heading into the season. Every single thing does not have to go right for them to be in contention in September. Which is good because that simply is not going to happen. However, a pretty good percentage does have to go right. The Reds have used up most of their slack IMO. They can't afford much more to go wrong and still expect to be their when the leaves start turning different colors. I'd say the chances of them making the playoffs is about 20% right now. One in five sounds about right.