There's no reason the Reds can't sign Votto to a LTC

[Blitz Dorsey]

I know the elephant in the room is what will happen with Joey Votto after his contract expires following the 2013 season. He's going to command a truckload of money and no one disputes that. And how can a "small-market" team afford that, right?

Wrong. I fully think the Reds will sign Votto and here is why:

1. Yes, he will command a lot of money, but he's not going to be looking to be the highest-paid player in MLB or anything of that sort. Whatever Pujols gets, Votto will get close to that, but not quite as much. Plus, it will be a full two years after Pujols signs his deal. (Unless the Reds re-sign Votto before his contract runs out, which would be even better.) So, even if Votto gets $25 million per season, I think the Reds will be willing to do it.

2. Votto is not a "risky" signing. He's not a pitcher, he's an everyday player, and that helps. Pitchers are such a huge risk. Also, even just looking at hitters, Votto is not a "streaky" player who has one good year, then sucks the next, then is great the next, then sucks the next. He's consistent as hell. If you are going to drop a ton of money on someone when you're a small-market club, it better be on someone who you're sure is a great player and isn't some flash in the pan. I think we can all agree Votto has proven he is the real deal and not someone who's had a couple or three lucky years. He's one of the most-natural hitters in all of MLB. He's the kind of guy that will be a legitimate threat to win the Triple Crown every year. Might never do it, but is the kind of hitter that could pull of it (like he nearly did last year).

3. A lot of contracts will come off the books after this season. The Reds will be gaining $12 million by not having Cordero (actually $11 million including his buyout of the club option). Yes, Cordero is having an excellent year and his contract turned out to be anything but the "albatross" many Reds fans feared -- myself included -- but no way they bring back a 36-year-old closer at $12 million next year. So, the Reds will have that money to spend. Also, as much as we all like Ramon Hernandez, there is no doubt this is his final season with the Reds. There will be another team out there willing to pay him the $3 or $4 million he currently makes with the Reds due to the great season he's having and the lack of catchers on the market. However, it won't be the Reds paying him that again. With Mesoraco waiting (and at a cheap price the next several years) and Hanigan locked up for the next 3 years, it will be a Mes/Hanigan platoon next year for sure.

4. The other big gun offensively -- Jay Bruce -- is already locked up through 2016 with a very-favorable contract from the Reds' standpoint. Got a nice bargain there by locking Jayboy up before he really exploded like he has this year. So, it's not like the Reds need to worry about "But what are we going to do with Bruce if we sign Votto?" They'll still have another three years of Jay Bruce even after Votto's current contract expires. That is a good position to be in. ... The Reds will have to make a decision with Brandon Phillips after the 2012 season (I think they'll pick up his option for next year for sure) but other than that there are no key position players that the team would risk losing by "holding back" money so they can pay Votto what it takes. ... And eventually Drew Stubbs will need be signed to a LTC, but I think that will be taken care of, perhaps this offseason. And the Reds have no risk of losing him via free agency for several years anyway.

5. Votto is the kind of man off-the-field that a team wants to be the face of their franchise. He's not going to do anything stupid that embarrasses the club. I can see a guy like Castellini saying "This is more than I ever thought I'd be willing to pay a player, but he's damn good on the field and he's a good guy off it. Let's do it. We can't risk losing him."

[klw]

The reason the Reds may be unable to sign Votto to a LTC is that he may be unwilling to sign one. The Reds can not force him to put his signature on the papers.

[Homer Bailey]

The reason the Reds may be unable to sign Votto to a LTC is that he may be unwilling to sign one. The Reds can not force him to put his signature on the papers.

There is also another reason. They probably won't have enough money.

So can we get the thread title changed to "There are at least two reasons why the reds can't sign Votto to a LTC"

[HeatherC1212]

I agree with you Blitz but I'm sorry this is going to turn into negative thread #1,450,131 with 5+ pages probably before I even get home from work.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I agree with you Blitz but I'm sorry this is going to turn into negative thread #1,450,131 with 5+ pages probably before I even get home from work.

I agree too. Wait, a thread turning negative in RZ?!? I don't believe it.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I love the Captain Obvious comments like "They can't force him to sign" so that's a reason.

OK, if Votto dies, that would also prevent him from signing a LTC. But I wasn't talking about extreme examples. Now back to our regularly-scheduled programming...

[Patrick Bateman]

So, in summary, other than the fact that Votto has explained that he doesn't want to sign a LTD right now, the Reds may not have enough money, and that Votto may want 25M+, there are no excuses for not signing him to long term deal.

Gotcha.

[Blitz Dorsey]

So, in summary, other than the fact that Votto has explained that he doesn't want to sign a LTD right now, the Reds may not have enough money, and that Votto may want 25M+, there are no excuses for not signing him to long term deal.

Gotcha.

Who said right now? And sarcasm is much better when it's actually funny.

[RedsManRick]

Can they sign him? Probably. But I don't see the point in having the discussion until he's open to doing so. Personally, I'm happy to let things play out. He's got a lot more room to decline than he has to improve. And even if he's likely to continue to be an elite player, nobody is a sure thing. And for a team like this one, committing 25% or more to one player is just asking for trouble.

[Patrick Bateman]

Someone's a little defensive today.

[I(heart)Freel]

The deadline is July 2013. The Reds can NOT do what the Cards are doing with Albert. That's a dangerous game of chicken. You have to get more than draft picks if your marquee player leaves.

[klw]

I love the Captain Obvious comments like "They can't force him to sign" so that's a reason.

OK, if Votto dies, that would also prevent him from signing a LTC. But I wasn't talking about extreme examples. Now back to our regularly-scheduled programming...

Well my response was actually lacking its usual snarky nature and was not intended to be on just a captain obvious basis. If we go back to ancient history to when Votto was signed to his 3 year contract Votto said this:

“I don’t know as far as beyond three years,” he said. “I think that’s a very unfair question to ask. This is not me saying I don’t want to be here. But last year was a difficult year. This year was a better year for me. It’s really hard to think three years ahead, five years ahead, seven years ahead. When (Troy) Tulowitzki signed that 10-year contract or whatever it was, I was blown away. I can’t imagine seeing myself 10 years from now and saying: ‘I want to be here.’ It’s an overwhelming thing to ask a young person like myself and say: ‘Here’s a lot of money be happy with this over 10 years. Deal with it.’ You don’t know where you’re going to be in one, two, three years.”

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...ee-3-year-deal

So it is a very real possibility that Votto will not want to sign a Long Term Contract. I am not sure if you meant that the Reds should be able to sign him now or at the end of his current deal. Even at the end of the current deal. the question of whether he will ever want to commit to more than a few year deal at a time could still be there. Is 3 years the max length he will ever want to do? Do you consider that an LTC or are you only thinking 5+ years.

I agree with your reasoning that the Reds should be able to sign him financially to a deal but the other question to ask is even if the Reds have the money to potentially wrap him up if the money would not be better spent at other positions. Is the value you get from an elite 1b so much higher than a what you can get from a lower production cheaper player worth 20 to 25% of your budget.

[reds44]

I think what the Reds do with Yonder Alonso at the deadline will give you a preview of what they think will happen with Votto.

[remdog]

I though Blitz's overall view was good. There is a considerable amount of time before a decision has to be made. Sure, no one can force Joey to sign on the dotted line but what if he breaks a leg on home plate and is out for two years?

As for Alonzo, he's hitting well now at AAA (finally) but I'm not sure that he's going to do that if/when he gets to the Big Leagues. To me, he may not have a lot of trading value. Except for elite players like Joey, Albert and Adrian, first basemen can pretty much be filled either internally or with a simple trade or free agent signing.

Still, I think that Blitz made his point---the Reds CAN sign Votto if they want to do it.

Rem

[reds44]

Hypothetically, lets say the Reds wanted to make a run at Carlos Zambrano. You don't think the Cubs would love to have Alonso?