Adam Dunn, In a Slump or Washed Up?

[Sea Ray]

That's the question this article writes:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...p-or-washed-up

In it he is compared to other sluggers who lost it in their early 30s, Greg Luzinski, Dale Murphy, Pat Burrell, and Richie Sexon

It's not just this year. The Nats were concerned about a late August slump last year too:

http://www.natsinsider.com/2010/08/s...ng-lineup.html

He has one (infield) single vs LHPs this year in 47 ABs. I gotta think Bill Bray could do as well if you put him in the batters box 47 times vs lefties. Of course he hasn't lost his ability to strike out; still leading the league there.

I thought he'd drop off in his 30s but not this soon and this much.

I got a kick out of this:


http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/players/adam_dunn/181

A site dedicated to rumors and gossip surrounding just Adam Dunn. With all the discussion around him during his time as a Red I'm surprised no one came up with this sort of thing around here.

[NJReds]

Somewhere, BadFundamentals/PRose14 is smiling.

[KronoRed]

Somewhere, BadFundamentals/PRose14 is smiling.

Some people in the reds radio booth smiling too.

[IslandRed]

Not sure where you got "other RH sluggers," since Dunn isn't a right-handed hitter and the article gives examples of sluggers in general, not right-handed hitters specifically.

But yeah, this line of thinking has been around awhile -- I know in that "Baseball By The Numbers" book a few years ago, they detailed this specific kind of player as one who declined earlier and faster than the typical player. "This specific kind of player" being summarized as having an old player body and old player skills at a relatively young age. I remember it being brought up a few years ago in his walk year when the hot question was about whether to offer him a long-term contract.

[Sea Ray]

Not sure where you got "other RH sluggers," since Dunn isn't a right-handed hitter and the article gives examples of sluggers in general, not right-handed hitters specifically.

Excellent point. Must be my dyslexia...

[Brutus]

I think everyone knew Dunn's body type was subject to more premature deterioration than other players. I just don't know if it was expected to happen so soon or as rapid. Of course, David Ortiz showed signs of losing it entirely a few years ago, but has since gotten back on track. This could be a false positive, but I tend to think some of it is losing some of the bat speed associated with the aging process.

If he's still hitting this poorly at the All-Star break, we might have our answer. Right now I think the jury is still out a bit.

[bucksfan2]

I think everyone knew Dunn's body type was subject to more premature deterioration than other players. I just don't know if it was expected to happen so soon or as rapid. Of course, David Ortiz showed signs of losing it entirely a few years ago, but has since gotten back on track. This could be a false positive, but I tend to think some of it is losing some of the bat speed associated with the aging process.

If he's still hitting this poorly at the All-Star break, we might have our answer. Right now I think the jury is still out a bit.

I haven't watched enough of Ortiz to really know exactly but doesn't he have a more compact swing? He is also a couple of inches shorter than Dunn and would have somewhat of a smaller strike zone.

I always thought that Dunn had a very long swing. It led to his high strike out rate but immense power when he made contact with the ball. As mentioned above when you lose some bat speed and begin to cheat on pitches that long swing becomes even longer. I don't know if he is in a slump or not but I think Dunn is the type of guy who will not age well baseball wise.

[Unassisted]

I got a kick out of this:


http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/players/adam_dunn/181

A site dedicated to rumors and gossip surrounding just Adam Dunn. With all the discussion around him during his time as a Red I'm surprised no one came up with this sort of thing around here.

The headlines alone at that site are brutal. If those represent the popular sentiment and Dunn played in the outfield, I wonder what kind of nasty greetings he would receive coming out of the stands at US Cellular Field?

[Patrick Bateman]

Starting last year, once his walks began to decline, I felt like that might be the tell-tale sign. If he is feeling like his bat speed is decreasing to the point he has to cheat on pitches outside the zone, then he is going to go down fast, because without the walks, he is just a homerun hitter, and the Dave Kingman comps can actually be relevant.

But if it's just a slump, or a change in approach for whatever reason, the sample size is of course too small right now to say 100%.

But I think the slipper slope has begun, and the signs started last season (despite still very strong numbers).

[TRF]

He changed leagues, something that is advantageous to pitchers when they do it, but hitters, not so much.

[NJReds]

He changed leagues, something that is advantageous to pitchers when they do it, but hitters, not so much.

I wonder if being a full time DH has added to Dunn's problems.

In NY, Posada really struggled with converting to a full-time DH, although he's also at an age where you'd expect a decline.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I have heard everything from he can't catch up to fastballs anymore to scouts saying he is mechanically fine and will have a big second half and that it's simply a bad slump that can be attributed to the change in leagues.

I do remember reading when he was a young player someone like Bill James said that Dunn would not age well and that he would basically lose it overnight in terms of ability. It's been in the back of my mind with this slump.

[cincrazy]

I don't think he's washed up, per se, but I think the decline has begun, and the next exit off the career highway is most assuredly Washedupsville.

[AtomicDumpling]

I think Dunn's current slump is a function of the league switch and the emergency appendectomy surgery. He will soon be back to producing runs at an exemplary rate once again. Most players start to decline at Dunn's age so his best days are likely behind him but I predict quite a few more dented baseballs in his future. Dunn is far from done.

[Big Klu]

I think Dunn's current slump is a function of the league switch and the emergency appendectomy surgery. He will soon be back to producing runs at an exemplary rate once again. Most players start to decline at Dunn's age so his best days are likely behind him but I predict quite a few more dented baseballs in his future. Dunn is far from done.

His power will still play. (I remember an announcer--I think it was Tony Kubek--saying about 43-year-old Tony Perez that power is the last thing to go.) But the rest of Dunn's game will not age well.