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Thread: Time to Fess Up

  1. #1
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    Time to Fess Up

    It's been a while since we've had a "prospects I was wrong about" thread. With the draft now in the rear view mirror and an otherwise quiet Tuesday, I figured now is a good time to get some chatter going. Here are some guys in the last few years who I thought couldn't miss, and of course, did (to varying degrees):

    Cameron Maybin
    Lastings Milledge
    Wladimir Balentien
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    Taylor Teagarden
    Jeff Clement
    Jeremy Sowers
    Andrew Miller
    Rich Hill
    Tim Alderson
    Go BLUE!!!

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  3. #2
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Maybin actually looks like he's turned the corner... his bat is pretty good considering Petco, and his defense althought tough to fully evaluate has played well in CF this year.

    I agree with Salty for sure, I really thought his bat would play in the big leagues considering the numbers he put up at a young age. He's basically a disaster at this point.

    I thought Matt Wieters would rival Joe Mauer, but he's still pretty good. I thought Alex Gordon was a stud, he isn't, but he's turned the corner to useful now.

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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Josh Roenicke, so far, now with the Rockies AAA team.

    On the other side of the coin, I missed on Matt Belisle, who is doing well in the Rockies pen and could be a big help to the Reds had they kept him.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-14-2011 at 04:44 PM.

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Remember this thread from 4 and a half years ago comparing Jay Bruce and Cameron Maybin?

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54904

    This discussion centered on a popular baseball writer (John Sickels) who compared them and projected their futures and he basically said they projected to be equals refusing to give either one an advantage:

    Advantage: Considering that they were born within 24 hours of each other, there's no age/projection edge here. It depends on what flavor of player you like, I suppose.
    At the risk of swelling Doug's head, I'm going to use this opportunity to sing his praises. We are extremely fortunate to have him as an active member of Redszone. This is still another example of where his analysis was superior to the national so called experts. His was a lone "wolf" in telling us all that Drew Stubbs was not a bust. He doesn't just regurgitate what someone else has written and he's willing to go against the grain. Doug's got his own view of things and it's frankly quite impressive
    Last edited by Sea Ray; 06-14-2011 at 04:46 PM.

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    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Matt LaPorta for me. He hasn't shown much yet, and I always thought he looked like a future star. Still could be, I guess.

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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    I'm going to go the other way.

    I didn't think Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson (two guys the Yankees traded for Curtis Granderson) would amount to much with their new clubs, and both have done quite well.
    "The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson

  8. #7
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    I'm going to go the other way.

    I didn't think Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson (two guys the Yankees traded for Curtis Granderson) would amount to much with their new clubs, and both have done quite well.
    Austin Jackson had a very good 2010 although they're not sure what to do with him in Detroit right now

  9. #8
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    It's been a while since we've had a "prospects I was wrong about" thread. With the draft now in the rear view mirror and an otherwise quiet Tuesday, I figured now is a good time to get some chatter going. Here are some guys in the last few years who I thought couldn't miss, and of course, did (to varying degrees):

    Cameron Maybin
    Lastings Milledge
    Wladimir Balentien
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    Taylor Teagarden
    Jeff Clement
    Jeremy Sowers
    Andrew Miller
    Rich Hill
    Tim Alderson
    I weas never a fan of Milledge nor Felix Pié. However, I thought Alderson would do great. He's doing great now in the Double-A Bullpen.

    Jeremy Hermida- I was wrong
    Celment-I was wrong too. I never thought he would be great, but I thought he'd be better than what he is now.
    Adam Lowen and Hayden Penn
    I was also wrong on Killa Cam and Andrew Miller. I thought they were gonna be great. Oh well.
    And someone mentioned Matt LaPorta. I bought into the hype. Shame on me.

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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Quote Originally Posted by OesterPoster View Post
    Matt LaPorta for me. He hasn't shown much yet, and I always thought he looked like a future star. Still could be, I guess.
    This is the first one that came to mind for me.

    I also thought Andy Marte was going to be a good player and he's been dismal.

    Gordon Beckham, who still has a chance to turn it around, is another one I thought would be much better than he's been.

  11. #10
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    I'll admit I never thought Drew Stubbs was going to be very good. It started off that I was ticked we didn't draft Lincecum instead. Then, to make matters worse, Stubbs' numbers were pretty bad most of his minor league career.

    Not that he's turned into a superstar with the Reds, but he's been very good considering his age and experience level. I have no problem admitting I was wrong there. (Doug, thanks for not reminding me of it. Ha. I remember you and I had quite the many debates about young Mr. Stubbs. You were right.)

    As for players on other teams, I feel confident saying that Shin-Soo Choo is the most-overrated player in MLB when you consider how much writers fawned over him the last 2-3 years calling him a "sure-fire future star." Not even close. He's a decent player, nothing more.

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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I'll admit I never thought Drew Stubbs was going to be very good. It started off that I was ticked we didn't draft Lincecum instead. Then, to make matters worse, Stubbs' numbers were pretty bad most of his minor league career.

    Not that he's turned into a superstar with the Reds, but he's been very good considering his age and experience level. I have no problem admitting I was wrong there. (Doug, thanks for not reminding me of it. Ha. I remember you and I had quite the many debates about young Mr. Stubbs. You were right.)

    As for players on other teams, I feel confident saying that Shin-Soo Choo is the most-overrated player in MLB when you consider how much writers fawned over him the last 2-3 years calling him a "sure-fire future star." Not even close. He's a decent player, nothing more.
    Stubbs was what I was going to post. Never figured he'd be much more than a speedy defensive oriented CF'er. Not exactly the type of player you draft at his position. So far I've gladly been wrong. And hoping I continue to be wrong.

  13. #12
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Um, Johnny Bench. In my youth, among one of Bench's first games, I actually hollered "Bench bench, things go better with Coke-r" Of course, I once took the side of the Dave Clark 5 as the better band versus the Beatles. Now in all fairness, they did break up after the Beatles...
    “In the same way that a baseball season never really begins, it never really ends either.” - Lonnie Wheeler, "Bleachers, A Summer in Wrigley Field"

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    The one I will never live down was Hanley Ramirez. I was young and stupid, but I didn't see the power potential people kept talking about with him. Whoops.

    More recently though was Alex Gordon. I think just about everyone has egg on their face from that one.

    I thought that Delmon Young would be a much better player than he has been. While he is just 25 years old still, I thought he would have several strong seasons under his belt by now instead of 1 and a few bad ones.

    Same goes for Matt Wieters. Thought he would have transitioned better to the majors than he has.

    At the same time, I thought that Mike Stanton would be good, but not this soon. I thought the power would play, but his plate discipline and strikeout rate would hold him back for a few seasons.

  15. #14
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Jeff Clement and definitely Jeremy Hermida. Hermida showed power and excellent plate discipline in the minors...I thought he would develop into a 30+ HR, .400+ OBP monster. He had a very good 2007 season with the Marlins at age 23 when he hit .296/.369/.501 for an .870 OPS and 125 OPS+. Not sure what happened because he never OPS'ed over .740 after that.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  16. #15
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    Re: Time to Fess Up

    Bruce has shown me more than I thought he would, considering his k/bb ratio in the minors. Mostly I try not to project, though. I'm not smart enough for that.

    Oh, going old school, I was mad the day Stillwell was traded for Jackson. I thought it should have been Larkin instead.
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.


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