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Thread: Thoughts:

  1. #1
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    Thoughts:

    1. What to do with David Dewitt Bailey? He breaks down quite often. How do you get value for the guy? It appears to be that you make him a closer. Closing allows him to pitch a limited number of innings and more importantly defines for him a role that is more suited to his intellect.

    2. Anyone feel Bruce is about 10-15 punds heavier than he was last year? Maybe it's my tv.

    3. Limitations of WAR. 40-45 balls that flew in Jay Bruce's area last year -have headed toward Fred Lewis this year. Surely, things will even out, but at this pont, it looks like Bruce has lost 5 steps (he hasn't) and Fred Lewis has become Carl Crawford (he hasn't). It's just one of those early season sample size flukes, but i bet it impacts how Bruce is perceived by many.

    4. Why does Heisy have trouble hitting lefties? He has a slight hitch in his swing which allows him to time a righties slider, but also impacts his ability to get out in front of a lefties inside fastball.

    5. If the umps are not gonna allow Phillips to cheat off the bag when he turns the DP- they need to also enforce guys sliding and not coming within 3 feet of that same bag.

    6. Edgar Rentaria has terrible footwork. Twice a game he stops moving his feet and has to make up for it with his hands. These are the short cuts old guys make when they can't get moving. Only problem is -his lack of quality footwork turns into 2 potential misplays a game. He looks OLD. Btw, is he really his stated age?

    7. Good comp for Drew Stubbs is Chet Lemon.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Thoughts:

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Thoughts;
    1. I disagree. There's no telling how much of his issue is due to usage. I'm nervous like others that he really does have a nasty shoulder issue brewing, but I don't think pitching him out of the pen automatically makes that go away. As for it better suiting his intellect, I'm not sure I see that. This last 12months, I think we've seen a much more mature, much more intellectual David Bailey.

    2. I haven't been able to see as many games, but I hadn't noticed.

    3. I'm not sure what goes into the defensive metrics in WAR, but isn't it more about a percentage of the balls you get "in your zone." I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong

    4. I think this is one of the reasons he has had trouble getting into the lineup. He really should be a Fred Lewis replacement rather than a Jonny Gomes replacement in the platoon. Dusty's not quite new school enough to actually look at the numbers it seems and have a R/R platoon. Of course this also means Fred Lewis is pretty redundant.

    5. Agreed.

    6. Agree with this too, I'm not really sure what he brings to the team. I'd honestly rather see Cairo play SS.

    7. Interesting comparison. I'd certainly sign up for an OPS+ of 120 over Drew's career. I forget did Lemon bat leadoff?
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  4. #3
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts:

    1. What to do with David Dewitt Bailey? He breaks down quite often. How do you get value for the guy? It appears to be that you make him a closer. Closing allows him to pitch a limited number of innings and more importantly defines for him a role that is more suited to his intellect.

    I like him a lot. I love his stuff. But if he can't stay healthy they're going to end up dealing him. He's used up about all of his 9 lives in a Reds uniform and it's a shame because I think he's capable of so much. The scouts and Reds front office have to know this which is why he's gotten so much patience from them. But he's on his last legs as a Red if he doesn't swim they'll cut bait I believe.


    2. Anyone feel Bruce is about 10-15 punds heavier than he was last year? Maybe it's my tv.

    I've heard others say this too. I think he looks the same though.


    3. Limitations of WAR. 40-45 balls that flew in Jay Bruce's area last year -have headed toward Fred Lewis this year. Surely, things will even out, but at this pont, it looks like Bruce has lost 5 steps (he hasn't) and Fred Lewis has become Carl Crawford (he hasn't). It's just one of those early season sample size flukes, but i bet it impacts how Bruce is perceived by many.

    This is why WAR is so flawed and OPS don't lie.


    4. Why does Heisy have trouble hitting lefties? He has a slight hitch in his swing which allows him to time a righties slider, but also impacts his ability to get out in front of a lefties inside fastball.

    Think about how many at-bats it takes a big league hitter to mature against LHP. Think about Bruce for instance. Heisey needs to play every day if we're ever going to see what we have in him. I would judge him after 800 PA's at the earliest--if he gets that here.

    5. If the umps are not gonna allow Phillips to cheat off the bag when he turns the DP- they need to also enforce guys sliding and not coming within 3 feet of that same bag.

    Agreed

    6. Edgar Rentaria has terrible footwork. Twice a game he stops moving his feet and has to make up for it with his hands. These are the short cuts old guys make when they can't get moving. Only problem is -his lack of quality footwork turns into 2 potential misplays a game. He looks OLD. Btw, is he really his stated age?

    I go back and forth on a nightly basis on who I like more, Janish or Renteria. I think this is because neither is very good. It's like a QB debate with two flawed signal callers. Reminds me of Derek Anderson vs. Brady Quinn. They both bring slight advantages to the table with a number of glaring weaknesses. The truth is, there is no complete right answer. The answer lies elsewhere. In our case, it's a guy who will be available in July or Cozart.


    7. Good comp for Drew Stubbs is Chet Lemon.

    I think Drew Stubbs is an absolute ballplayer. The more I see of him the more convinced I am. I love the guy. He looks like a ballplayer. He talks like a ballplayer. He moves like a ballplayer. I'd like him better hitting 5th or 6th behind Bruce, but that's it.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
    2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
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  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts:

    Regarding WAR, I assume you're commenting specifically on the UZR component? Assuming you are, we should keep in mind that you are only judged against the opportunities you have. So fewer opportunities will affect the scale of UZR (more opportunities means more chances to move away from average).

    Let's compare Bruce's 2010 to his 2011.

    In 2010:
    - .230 balls in zone per inning
    - 3 errors on 276 balls in zone (1 error per 92 balls in zone)
    - 93.8% conversion on balls in zone
    - 1 play out of zone every 14.3 innings

    In 2011:
    - .195 balls in zone per inning
    - 3 errors on 114 balls in zone (1 error per 38 balls in zone)
    - 89.5% conversion on balls in zone
    - 1 play out of zone every 18.9 innings

    So, he's getting about 20% fewer opportunities -- a non-trivial difference. But if that we're the only difference and he were performing at the same rat of effectiveness as last year, we'd expect to see him at +7 this year instead of a projected +9.

    But that's not what's happening. He's also making more mistakes, converting fewer reasonable opportunities and making fewer great plays.

    Now, given the small sample size, this data is not necessarily an indicator that he's suddenly less talented defensively. However, it seems reasonable to suggest that he has performed worse defensively thus far in 2011.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-17-2011 at 12:37 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts:

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Regarding WAR, I assume you're commenting specifically on the UZR component? Assuming you are, we should keep in mind that you are only judged against the opportunities you have. So fewer opportunities will affect the scale of UZR (more opportunities means more chances to move away from average).

    Let's compare Bruce's 2010 to his 2011.

    In 2010:
    - .230 balls in zone per inning
    - 3 errors on 276 balls in zone (1 error per 92 balls in zone)
    - 93.8% conversion on balls in zone
    - 1 play out of zone every 14.3 innings

    In 2011:
    - .195 balls in zone per inning
    - 3 errors on 114 balls in zone (1 error per 38 balls in zone)
    - 89.5% conversion on balls in zone
    - 1 play out of zone every 18.9 innings

    So, he's getting fewer opportunities, yes. But he's also making more mistakes, converting fewer reasonable opportunities and making fewer great plays. Now, given the small sample size, it's safe to say that this data is in not necessarily an indicator that he's less talented defensively. However, it seems reasonable to suggest that he has performed worse defensively thus far in 2011.
    I agree with all of the above. One question/comment about the errors though. I'd love to see each of those errors when coming to my all around evaluaton of Jay. Was is a "bad" error? Was it an error made trying to make a great play? Should they have even been an error? Yeah, an error is an error, but we are just talking about 6 total.

    Kinda like Phillips, I've seen some questionable errors given to him this year. They all count the same on the stat sheet, but no 2 errors are alike.

    Not saying I'd rush to any conclusions...I just would want to see them.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts:

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I agree with all of the above. One question/comment about the errors though. I'd love to see each of those errors when coming to my all around evaluaton of Jay. Was is a "bad" error? Was it an error made trying to make a great play? Should they have even been an error? Yeah, an error is an error, but we are just talking about 6 total.

    Kinda like Phillips, I've seen some questionable errors given to him this year. They all count the same on the stat sheet, but no 2 errors are alike.

    Not saying I'd rush to any conclusions...I just would want to see them.
    Sure, I don't put much stock in errors either. However, the problem with errors as a performance indicator is not that they are given too liberally, but that they are not given enough nor consistent with the difficulty of the play.

    That said, I like the idea of a 3-tiered system in which errors are screwing up the gimmies, say not making the play despite a 95% conversion likelihood, a counterpart to the OOZ plays. Right now, my understanding is that in zone and out of zone are simply on either side of the 50% likelihood of making the play line. You could give a much better picture by looking at conversion rates in a 5 zone system that mirrors standard deviations -- gimmie plays (95%-100%), easy plays (80% to 95%), routine plays (20% to 80%), tough plays (5% to 20%), and stellar plays (0% to 5%).

    But that's also part of why defensive performance can fluctuate so much for a given player. 1 bad error can cost you a run or two and there's not really much time to make up for it. I think it's helpful to think of UZR kind of like you would treat reliever ERA.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-17-2011 at 02:46 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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