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Thread: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

  1. #1
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    Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Everyone wants something to happen, although there is much debate as to which needs must be prioritized. Is it a SS, a LF, or a pitcher? Below are three trade proposals which target players rumored to be available and attempt to address the primary needs of the teams involved. One thing to note is that all of the principals in each of these deals are signed beyond 2011, so they would not be rentals- which is both good and bad, as there are certainly some financial obligations the Reds would have to take on in each of these deals (I currently have them structured so that each team would be sending some money to the Reds.) I have listed them in order of most realistic to least realistic, yet my preferences would be inverted (least preferable to most preferable). Feel free to comment, criticize, or corroborate any of the below proposals:

    Proposal 1: Baltimore Orioles (most realistic)
    Reds Trade:
    1B Yonder Alonso
    LHP Travis Wood
    OF Fred Lewis

    Orioles Trade:
    RHP Jeremy Guthrie
    SS JJ Hardy
    LF Luke Scott
    $5 Million

    Rationale: Guthrie is available and Reds have been reportedly interested. He would instantly become our 2nd or 3rd best pitcher, having a strong track record in the superior AL East. He and Scott are both signed through next year, extending our window to compete. Scott could at least platoon with Gomes but more likely be the everyday LF. Hardy provides a proven SS. Orioles need a 1B of the future as they currently employ Derrek Lee. Wood gives them another young arm to the stable of Britton, Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta. Lewis is replaced by the lefty hitting Scott.

    Proposal 2: Los Angeles Dodgers
    Reds Trade:1B Yonder Alonso
    C Yasmani Grandal
    3B/OF Juan Francisco
    LHP Travis Wood

    Dodgers Trade:
    OF Matt Kemp OR Andre Ethier
    SS Rafael Furcal
    RHP Chad Billingsley
    $5 Million

    Rationale: Billingsley has fallen out of favor with Don Mattingly, and he is a local Ohio product who would be a solid #2 for the next few years. Kemp or Ethier would provide a RH masher to play LF and protect Bruce in the lineup (imagine a 3-4-5 of Votto-Bruce-Ethier/Kemp). Furcal is superflous now that Gordon is up, and the Dodgers would be happy to unload these salaries as their payroll problems are well documented. I doubt MLB will let the Dodgers pull a blockbuster before they are repossessed though. Dodgers are in desperate need of a 1B as Loney sucks. Grandal gives them a catcher and Wood a pitcher for the future when they can be competitive again 2-3 years from now, long after Kemp/Ethier and Furcal will be gone.

    Proposal 3: Florida Marlins (my favorite)
    Reds Trade:
    1B Yonder Alonso
    C Yasmani Grandal
    SS Edgar Renteria
    LHP Aroldis Chapman
    RHP Edinson Volquez

    Marlins Trade:
    SS Hanley Ramirez
    RHP Anibal Sanchez
    $5 Million

    Rationale: Almost makes too much sense. HanRam has fallen out of favor in Florida and several people are now calling for him to be traded. While it seems a fantasyland proposal at first, Cincy native Marlins GM Mike Hill has shown a propensity to do these types of blockbusters in the past, although hopefully this works out better than the Cabrera/Willis for Maybin/Miller deal did. This trade is actually quite similar to that one, with the Marlins trading their All-World hitter and one of their best pitchers for two (in this case three) top prospects, all of which are of Cuban descent. Alonso and Grandal would both be coming home, and Renteria could finish his career where he started it and became a WS MVP. Biggest question here is whether Reds can absorb HanRam's contract (due >$50MM over next four years). Would certainly spell the end of Phillips and Votto in Cincy once their current deals expire, although getting Chapman off the books would help mitigate it somewhat.
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-22-2011 at 10:44 AM.
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  3. #2
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    I doubt the Dodgers would be sending money to anyone in a deal. They have a big concern about making payroll in the shortrun so to get big name players from them the Reds would be likely getting them because the money burden shifts away from LA.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    My quick reactions:

    - Guthrie is a mid-rotation starter, just get LeCure back and you're in the same place. Hardy is a legit upgrade, but playing over his head offensively. Luke Scott has the same OPS as Chris Heisey and is a poor defensive LF.

    - Gordon is up because Furcal cannot stay healthy

    - Ramirez is a SS like Alonso is a LF. He also has a .601 OPS. I love the idea of acquiring Ramirez, but he's our LF or 3B of the future, not our SS fix in 2011. He also makes $15M, $15.5M, and $16M the next three years. I'm not sure if the money is there and even if it is for 2011, you're not picking up Phillips' option next year. On top of all of that, Ramirez is not exactly known for his great attitude and work ethic. Some of that is likely a lack of a mentor and his early success giving him a free pass -- but something tells me that won't fly in Cincy.

    I'm not against a trade at all, but we have a bit of tendency to engage in grass-is-greener thinking in suggestions like this.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    My quick reactions:

    - Guthrie is a mid-rotation starter, just get LeCure back and you're in the same place. Hardy is a legit upgrade, but playing over his head offensively. Luke Scott has the same OPS as Chris Heisey and is a poor defensive LF.

    - Gordon is up because Furcal cannot stay healthy

    - Ramirez is a SS like Alonso is a LF. He also has a .601 OPS. I love the idea of acquiring Ramirez, but he's our LF or 3B of the future, not our SS fix in 2011. He also makes $15M, $15.5M, and $16M the next three years. I'm not sure if the money is there and even if it is for 2011, you're not picking up Phillips' option next year. On top of all of that, Ramirez is not exactly known for his great attitude and work ethic. Some of that is likely a lack of a mentor and his early success giving him a free pass -- but something tells me that won't fly in Cincy.

    I'm not against a trade at all, but we have a bit of tendency to engage in grass-is-greener thinking in suggestions like this.
    I'm not really FOR acquiring Ramirez...but I'd think that Dusty might be the perfect person to be that mentor for Ramirez and to knock him into shape. But that contract...I don't see it happening.
    2014 predictions:
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    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    I think you're giving up too much in any of these trades.

    Fixing the Reds means picking up an offensive-minded LF and a solid/ace pitcher. Doesn't have to be in the same trade.

    Personally I would like to see one of these players traded for (in this order):
    Kemp
    Ethier
    Beltran
    Quentin
    Cuddyer
    Ludwick

    As for pitchers, I don't know that there's one on the market I'd really want. Guthrie would be nice, but I wouldn't give up Wood. Wood is going through the growing pains any young pitcher goes through. Remember, this time last year he had yet to make his major league debut. Plus he's our only legitimate LH starter option unless Chapman turns the corner in a hurry. Besides Guthrie, I think a no-brainer trade, if the Giants are on board, is Hernandez and Boxberger for Jonathan Sanchez.

    I can live with Janish at SS as long as the Reds pick up the LFer. But considering an improvement at SS, I'd look at Hardy or Furcal. If Furcal is healthy he would be an outstanding leadoff hitter. That would move Stubbs to the #2 hole, which I think he's better suited for. If Hardy was acquired, he would bat 2nd or down in the order and we would be living with Stubbs' strikeouts at leadoff.
    Last edited by Dan; 06-22-2011 at 11:43 AM.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Given the Dodgers economic issues, and the fact that MLB is going to take that team over within the next week or so, I don't see them being sellers.

    When MLB gets control, they will do everything they can to prop the Dodgers up, and may even be buyers in order to attract strong new ownership. Or at the least, not sell off their best assets for young players.

    I kind of like the Orioles deal, though Hardy will be a rental.

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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    My quick reactions:

    - Guthrie is a mid-rotation starter, just get LeCure back and you're in the same place. Hardy is a legit upgrade, but playing over his head offensively. Luke Scott has the same OPS as Chris Heisey and is a poor defensive LF.
    Guthrie is NOT the same as LeCure, not even close.

    - Gordon is up because Furcal cannot stay healthy
    The Dodgers have no use for Furcal, who is a FA at the end of this season on a team going nowhere. Gordon is their future at that position, and they would happily give him away to anyone who would pay his salary. I do agree with the other poster who said they won't be sending money to anyone anytime soon though.

    - Ramirez is a SS like Alonso is a LF. He also has a .601 OPS. I love the idea of acquiring Ramirez, but he's our LF or 3B of the future, not our SS fix in 2011. He also makes $15M, $15.5M, and $16M the next three years. I'm not sure if the money is there and even if it is for 2011, you're not picking up Phillips' option next year. On top of all of that, Ramirez is not exactly known for his great attitude and work ethic. Some of that is likely a lack of a mentor and his early success giving him a free pass -- but something tells me that won't fly in Cincy.

    I'm not against a trade at all, but we have a bit of tendency to engage in grass-is-greener thinking in suggestions like this.
    I'd be fine with HanRam being our SS until Rolen gets injured/is ready to retire, probably in late 2012 or early 2013. At that time, he can move over to 3B where he plays out the rest of his contract, and Cozart or eventually Hamilton can take over at SS. I think the combination of Dusty, Rolen, and winning baseball could get him back to what he was for the past 4 years- one of the five best players in the game hands down.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    One much simpler way to fix LF is to trade for Bletran. I'm sure the Mets are looking to dump payroll, he'd be much cheaper. With his bat in LF, you can live with Janish at SS.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Guthrie is NOT the same as LeCure, not even close.
    Really?

    Code:
    	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB/FB	Contact	SwStr	ERA	FIP	xFIP
    Guthrie	5.5	2.5	1.2	0.97	85.5%	6.4%	4.12	4.65	4.58
    LeCure  7.4	3.6	1.2	1.23	84.2%	6.4%	3.95	4.64	4.14
    There is admittedly a pretty small sample size with LeCure, but do the Reds really need to go out and get a guy who doesn't miss bats and is homer prone? Guthrie is a decent starter. But the only thing that makes him better than the Reds suite of options is health.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Really?

    Code:
    	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB/FB	Contact	SwStr	ERA	FIP	xFIP
    Guthrie	5.5	2.5	1.2	0.97	85.5%	6.4%	4.12	4.65	4.58
    LeCure  7.4	3.6	1.2	1.23	84.2%	6.4%	3.95	4.64	4.14
    There is admittedly a pretty small sample size with LeCure, but do the Reds really need to go out and get a guy who doesn't miss bats and is homer prone? Guthrie is a decent starter. But the only thing that makes him better than the Reds suite of options is health.

    Guthrie has thrown at least 175 innings of sub 4-ERA ball in the AL East for four of the last five years. If LeCure ever throws 175 innings in a season with a sub-4 ERA in his career, I'll be surprised. Sorry, but the two are not even close to comparable.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    Given the Dodgers economic issues, and the fact that MLB is going to take that team over within the next week or so, I don't see them being sellers.

    When MLB gets control, they will do everything they can to prop the Dodgers up, and may even be buyers in order to attract strong new ownership. Or at the least, not sell off their best assets for young players.

    I kind of like the Orioles deal, though Hardy will be a rental.
    I would look at it the other way. The McCourts look like they won't be able to meet their next salary payment. If that happens MLB and all the other owners will assume the debts of the club. I don't think Bob Castellini would want to help fun the Dodgers, but thats just me.

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I would look at it the other way. The McCourts look like they won't be able to meet their next salary payment. If that happens MLB and all the other owners will assume the debts of the club. I don't think Bob Castellini would want to help fun the Dodgers, but thats just me.
    You might be right, but MLB needs the proud, tradition-rich Dodger franchise to be a strong and vibrant. When Hicks ran into trouble with the Rangers last year, MLB took them over and improved the club (admittedly, the Rangers were having a much better year last year than the Dodgers are this year).

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    Ethier

    Ethier cannot hit lefties at all & his power has faded. If we got him dirt cheap then fine but I wouldn't want to see us trade real value for him.
    .

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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    The only realistic trade out of those is the first one. Guthrie can be had, but doesn't Baltimore want to lock up Hardy long-term?
    Los Angeles is not going to deal Matt Kemp, who is one of the best players in baseball right now. They aren't going to deal him off right now, even with the money issues.
    And the Marlins trade. No. Despite what these dumb beat reporters are saying, the Marlins are not going to trade Hanley. Not going to happen. And nor are they going to trade Anibal. He's been their ace this year (with JJ out) and they are likely going to lock him up. And does anyone remember that Hanley has been one of the top three position players in baseball the past five years? I guess not. Yea, he's struggling mightily, but he's not Edgar Renteria. Come on.

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    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by cinreds21 View Post
    The only realistic trade out of those is the first one. Guthrie can be had, but doesn't Baltimore want to lock up Hardy long-term?
    Los Angeles is not going to deal Matt Kemp, who is one of the best players in baseball right now. They aren't going to deal him off right now, even with the money issues.
    And the Marlins trade. No. Despite what these dumb beat reporters are saying, the Marlins are not going to trade Hanley. Not going to happen. And nor are they going to trade Anibal. He's been their ace this year (with JJ out) and they are likely going to lock him up. And does anyone remember that Hanley has been one of the top three position players in baseball the past five years? I guess not. Yea, he's struggling mightily, but he's not Edgar Renteria. Come on.
    Until we see the scroll at the bottom of ESPN one afternoon that says the Marlins trade Hanley Ramirez to STL for a couple of AA pitchers.


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