Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 16 to 29 of 29

Thread: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

  1. #16
    -The Insider-
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    2,871

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    Until we see the scroll at the bottom of ESPN one afternoon that says the Marlins trade Hanley Ramirez to STL for a couple of AA pitchers.
    You really think it's going to happen?

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,145

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Guthrie has thrown at least 175 innings of sub 4-ERA ball in the AL East for four of the last five years. If LeCure ever throws 175 innings in a season with a sub-4 ERA in his career, I'll be surprised. Sorry, but the two are not even close to comparable.
    Sorry, but I base my decisions on what a guy is likely to do moving forward. What he's done in the past is only relevant insofar as it helps us predict the future. Are they the exact same? No. In a bubble, would I choose Guthrie over LeCure? Probably. Would I trade Travis Wood to get him Guthrie? No.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-22-2011 at 03:09 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,926

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Sorry, but I base my decisions on what a guy is likely to do moving forward. What he's done in the past is only relevant insofar as it helps us predict the future. Are they the exact same? No. In a bubble, would I choose Guthrie over LeCure? Probably. Would I trade anything of value to get Guthrie? No.
    That's why I said, LeCure will be lucky to ever throw 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA in one season, for his entire career. Guthrie will very likely provide it for this year and next.
    Go BLUE!!!

  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,145

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    That's why I said, LeCure will be lucky to ever throw 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA in one season, for his entire career. Guthrie will very likely provide it for this year and next.
    I disagree with this statement. As a flyball pitcher in GABP and on the wrong side of 30, I don't think he's likely to put up 175 IP of a sub-4 ERA. It's certainly a possibility, but I don't think it's a greater than 50% chance. But furthermore, it's not just about Guthrie. It about the cost to acquire him. It's about Guthrie vs. the alternatives -- both performance and cost. Guthrie at $8-10M in 2012 or Travis Wood/Sam LeCure? Is Guthrie likely to be 2 wins better than the guy he'll replace in 2012? I don't think so.

    I think you're comparing his upside to our guys' downside. Again, in a bubble, i take the guy. But if I'm trading away 6 years of Alonso and 5 of Wood, I want more than a year and a half of an innings eater .
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #20
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,926

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think you're comparing his upside to our guys' downside. Again, in a bubble, i take the guy. But if I'm trading away 6 years of Alonso and 5 of Wood, I want more than a year and a half of an innings eater .
    OK, well how about an "innings eater" and a significant upgrade at SS and LF, as was originally proposed? Also, don't forget my proposal had the O's sending money over to cover some of the added costs. I don't include Wood unless that happens.
    Go BLUE!!!

  7. #21
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,145

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    OK, well how about an "innings eater" and a significant upgrade at SS and LF, as was originally proposed? Also, don't forget my proposal had the O's sending money over to cover some of the added costs. I don't include Wood unless that happens.
    As I've pointed our earlier:

    - Hardy is an upgrade, but can't be expected to continue to hit like he's done so far and we have a player in the minors performing very well who profiles to be extremely similar. He is 28, makes $5.85M and will be a free agent. One decent projection system, ZiPS projects him for as .272/.327/.437 bat the rest of the season.

    - Luke Scott is not upgrade. He's a better hitter than Heisey but a significantly worse defender. And while I concede the point I made earlier about using projections not just year-to-date stats, so far this year, he's not been a better hitter. He's 33, makes $6.4M this year and will be arb eligble. He would not likely be retained in 2012. ZiPS projects him at .254/.340/.461.

    These guys are ok complimentary players. But including Guthrie you're talking ~3 wins over the rest of the season and little return thereafter (a market-priced Guthrie in 2012). You're giving up quite a bit for that. Yeah, those are 3 valuable wins if they mean the difference between the playoffs and staying home. But if we're trading Alonso and Wood to get 2-3 wins, get one really big upgrade somewhere that will last beyond 2012 and see what you have internally to address the other situations.

    Going outside of the organization to get mediocre upgrades without trying the in house options strikes me as not a smart approach.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,926

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    As I've pointed our earlier:

    - Hardy is an upgrade, but can't be expected to continue to hit like he's done so far and we have a player in the minors performing very well who profiles to be extremely similar. He is 28, makes $5.85M and will be a free agent. One decent projection system, ZiPS projects him for as .272/.327/.437 bat the rest of the season.
    Consensus, upgrade. I too would rather try Cozart first, but for some reason the Reds seem categorically opposed to that.

    - Luke Scott is not upgrade. He's a better hitter than Heisey but a significantly worse defender. And while I concede the point I made earlier about using projections not just year-to-date stats, so far this year, he's not been a better hitter. He's 33, makes $6.4M this year and will be arb eligble. He would not likely be retained in 2012. ZiPS projects him at .254/.340/.461.
    I don't love Scott, but he would certainly be an offensive upgrade over what we're putting out there. Defensively, he is better than Gomes, so again he would be better than what we are putting out there. I would reiterate here that I'd rather try Alonso or Sappelt here first, but the Reds brass seems to disagree.

    These guys are ok complimentary players. But including Guthrie you're talking ~3 wins over the rest of the season and little return thereafter (a market-priced Guthrie in 2012). You're giving up quite a bit for that. Yeah, those are 3 valuable wins if they mean the difference between the playoffs and staying home. But if we're trading Alonso and Wood to get 2-3 wins, get one really big upgrade somewhere that will last beyond 2012 and see what you have internally to address the other situations.

    Going outside of the organization to get mediocre upgrades without trying the in house options strikes me as not a smart approach.
    They did try the in house option in the rotation. Sam LeCure had a 4.50 ERA and >1.50 WHIP as a starter. Chad Reineke and Daryl Thompson fared worse. Travis Wood is in the minors, and Edinson Volquez has already been there. We're out of in-house options for the rotation. Guthrie is clearly an upgrade over any of them.
    Go BLUE!!!

  9. #23
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,581

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    None of those proposals are even remotely realistic, as much as I'd be fine with any of them. Teams just don't trade multiple established players in a trade like that. I'd love Matt Kemp, but the Dodgers probably won't even trade him let along including Furcal and/or Bililngsley too. Same with the Orioles and Hardy/Scott or the Marlins with Hanley/Anibal.

    At most, if the Reds could get any of those players, it would be in a single-player trade.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #24
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,926

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    None of those proposals are even remotely realistic, as much as I'd be fine with any of them. Teams just don't trade multiple established players in a trade like that. I'd love Matt Kemp, but the Dodgers probably won't even trade him let along including Furcal and/or Bililngsley too. Same with the Orioles and Hardy/Scott or the Marlins with Hanley/Anibal.

    At most, if the Reds could get any of those players, it would be in a single-player trade.
    Mike Hill and the Cabrera/Willis trade says
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #25
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,926

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    From MLBTR chat today:

    2:26 [Comment From Andy McPhailAndy McPhail: ]
    J.J. Hardy. What's he worth to a team like the Giants, Rays, Reds, etc? You think Brandon Belt, Desmond Jennings, or Yonder Alonso?

    2:27 I think all but Alonso are probably off-limits. But I do think Alonso is a fair return for Hardy the way he has been playing.
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #26
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,581

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Mike Hill and the Cabrera/Willis trade says
    Dontrelle Willis had a 5.17 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in the year preceding his trade. That wasn't exactly a hard sell to make. A lot of scouts didn't buy into Willis even prior to that year.

    Even so, outside of the Marlins with that deal and the one that included Mike Lowell to Boston with Josh Beckett because of finances, very, very few trades include multiple players like that.

    It's still not realistic, even if there are a few outliers.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  13. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,943

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    I don't think Proposals 2 or 3 are very likely. As for proposal 1, I think the acquisition of Guthrie, Scott and Hardy could go a long way toward fixing this team's ills, but there is absolutley no way that I'd trade Travis Wood without getting a lead pipe cinch certified TOR starter who would be more than a rental in retiurn. Make it Volquez and stipulate that he O's have to take Renteria and Lewis and the O's add cash and I'm for it.

    1. Guthrie is a better bet than most of the Reds current group of starters and suspect depth. He's not a number 1 or even a number 2, but he is solid "write it down" stability that despite the Reds relative riches in quantity of arms, this team is lacking. Too many spots in the rotation are filled by question marks and anyone making rotation plans that include Homer Bailey for the rest of the season is making a mistake IMO. If the team could deal a blocked prospect and an arm we've mostly run out patience with for a solid producer while addressing SS and finding a platoon partner for Gomes they should do it. There are some concerns about Guthrie's back. If this is a real concern, then all bets are off. The reason to deal for a guy like Guthrie is to reduce the number of question marks. If adding him is simply adding a new one, there is absolutely no reason to do it.

    2. A LF platoon of Gomes and Scott would adequately address concerns about this offense IMO. Scott's career splits against RHP .274/.360/.507/.868 while Gomes against LHP is .282/.378/.512/.890. Those two could reasonably be expected to put up an .850 plus OPS as a combo sharing LF and hitting in the 5 hole. IMO, it is exactly what this team is lacking from a position player standpoint.

    3. Hardy probably won't continue to put up an OPS above .800, but he's a good defender who should do well to add some punch at the bottom of the order (or perhaps the 2 hole if Phillips continues to struggle).

    Cueto
    Arroyo
    Guthrie
    Leake
    Bailey/Wood (Wood in AAA while Bailey is "healthy" but probably in the 5 spot most of the time)

    Lecure
    Willis
    Arredondo
    Ondrusek
    Massett
    Bray
    Cordero

    Stubbs CF
    Hardy SS
    Votto 1B
    Bruce LF
    Scott/Gomes LF
    Rolen 3B
    Phillips 2B
    Hernandez/Hanigan C

    Janish, Heisey, Cairo

    Still lots of stuff in AAA if needed.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    wilmington n.c.
    Posts
    960

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    I just dont see any of the above trades happening. I think Walt really likes our prospects and he will not part with them for anything that's not an ace! Now a trade I could see him making and it fills a need for us is this one:

    Reds Trade- Chris Valaika, Matt Maloney, and Yasmani Grandal

    Padres Trade- Ryan Ludwick

  15. #29
    -The Insider-
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    2,871

    Re: Fixing the Reds in One Fell Swoop

    Quote Originally Posted by schroomytunes View Post
    I just dont see any of the above trades happening. I think Walt really likes our prospects and he will not part with them for anything that's not an ace! Now a trade I could see him making and it fills a need for us is this one:

    Reds Trade- Chris Valaika, Matt Maloney, and Yasmani Grandal

    Padres Trade- Ryan Ludwick
    That's too much for Ludwick. He is definitely not worth Yas.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25