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Thread: Cozart Up Friday?

  1. #91
    Cruisin' for trouble
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    So what number is Fay going to wear?

    Oh, wait...this is a Cozart thread.

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  3. #92
    Member CrackerJack's Avatar
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    No word yet on Cozart. Chapman is said to be in Baltimore.
    Did Chapman learn how to throw strikes on the plane? They're being very impatient with him it seems, I suppose because of the $. He had what, one decent outing in the minor league stint?

  4. #93
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackerJack View Post
    Did Chapman learn how to throw strikes on the plane? They're being very impatient with him it seems, I suppose because of the $. He had what, one decent outing in the minor league stint?
    I'm not sure Volquez learned anything on his trip down either, other than how to use clippers on his hair.

  5. #94
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    I'm not sure Volquez learned anything on his trip down either, other than how to use clippers on his hair.
    Since coming back from his demotion, Volquez's BB rate has been half of what it was before, and his ERA is half as big as well.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #95
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackerJack View Post
    Did Chapman learn how to throw strikes on the plane? They're being very impatient with him it seems, I suppose because of the $. He had what, one decent outing in the minor league stint?
    He's had two solid outings with very good control in both of them.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #96
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    If the Reds believed in his offensive improvement (they probably shouldn’t – it’s BABIP driven), they likely would have promoted him to the Majors
    I saw this in the Cameron article. Cozart's BABIP this year is .354-about 50 points higher than it has previously been. Is this the reason the Reds haven't promoted him?

  8. #97
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Fay was wrong.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  9. #98
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    I saw this in the Cameron article. Cozart's BABIP this year is .354-about 50 points higher than it has previously been. Is this the reason the Reds haven't promoted him?
    Comment from below the Dave Cameron article...

    You also neglect to mention that his K% is down more than 4% from last year, while his ISO is up.

    Sure, a .354 BABIP isn’t sustainable, but his improved numbers aren’t entirely “luck.”

  10. #99
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    50 BABIP points is a pretty big deal though. That's at least 100 OPS points (as it directly lowers OBP and also slugging) and probably more as some of those hits are doubles or triples.

    If we normalize 100 points off his OPS, we're looking at a more reasonable .750 at AAA, and his minor league equivalencies put him at an expected Major League OPS below .700. Suddenly, he loses his luster.

    He'd probably still be a little better than what the Reds are running out there, but I do think that high BABIP is a pretty big deal in evaluating Cozart's performance.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  11. #100
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    50 BABIP points is a pretty big deal though. That's at least 100 OPS points (as it directly lowers OBP and also slugging) and probably more as some of those hits are doubles or triples.

    If we normalize 100 points off his OPS, we're looking at a more reasonable .750 at AAA, and his minor league equivalencies put him at an expected Major League OPS below .700. Suddenly, he loses his luster.

    He'd probably still be a little better than what the Reds are running out there, but I do think that high BABIP is a pretty big deal in evaluating Cozart's performance.
    Cozart is also hitting quite a bit more line drives this year than last (25% this year compared to 18% last year). So the BABIP, while not sustainable, isn't completely attributed to luck either. He has changed something in his game that has resulted in a better eye/more contact. How that is going to translate, I don't have a clue.... but I still feel comfortable saying he is a .250 MLB hitter with 15-20 HR's and 35 doubles from the shortstop position.

  12. #101
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Cozart is also hitting quite a bit more line drives this year than last (25% this year compared to 18% last year). So the BABIP, while not sustainable, isn't completely attributed to luck either. He has changed something in his game that has resulted in a better eye/more contact. How that is going to translate, I don't have a clue.... but I still feel comfortable saying he is a .250 MLB hitter with 15-20 HR's and 35 doubles from the shortstop position.
    That's true. And in fairness, his xBABIP is somewhere in the neighborhood of .320 based on his hit types, so you're right that it's not all luck. I didn't mean to suggest it was, just that 50 points can be a pretty big deal.

    Even assuming 30 points, his OPS, normalized, would probably be about 75 points lower which does still change the complexion a bit.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  13. #102
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    And yet, Janish has a .538 OPS for 2011, and Renteria is at a .549 OPS. A .700 OPS would be a huge boost.
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  14. #103
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    And yet, Janish has a .538 OPS for 2011, and Renteria is at a .549 OPS. A .700 OPS would be a huge boost.
    If he were to hit that, I absolutely agree. You just don't know how a rookie will do. But at this point, don't mistake that statement from me as a reason not to do it--because I think it's time they give something a try.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #104
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Since coming back from his demotion, Volquez's BB rate has been half of what it was before, and his ERA is half as big as well.
    Until tonight...

  16. #105
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    Re: Cozart Up Friday?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He's had two solid outings with very good control in both of them.
    As a reliever I don't think that changes my point, but thanks for clarifying.


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