This has been bugging me for a few days. What do you think will happen with the Reds rotation long term? I have a feeling that Arroyo gets dealt this off-season for some reason. What is the general consensus on Bailey and Volquez? Are they worth keeping or do we have better options in Chapman, Wood and Leake?
Just wanted to see what everyone thinks. So say Chapman starts next year, what do you think the 2012 rotation will be? Go
The injuries have hurt Homer, but I like what I've seen of him when healthy. I would definitely try Chapman in the rotation next year and he may still turn out to be a TOR guy, but at this point I think he's even more of a questionmark than Homer or Volquez.Originally Posted by cinreds21
If Arroyo is dealt, it will need to be before April, otherwise, he will have the vaunted 10/5 rights.
I'd like to keep him, but his contract is expensive and the team has holes so it's a tough call. Who would replace him? If Chapman is ready (and has proven it), I'd be all for him stepping in.
The problem is that Volquez is unreliable, Chapman hasn't proven his control yet and Bailey has been injury prone.
If health is tossed out of the picture, I'd go...
Cueto
Bailey
Wood
Leake
Arroyo
I'd stick Chapman in AAA as a starter and let him work things out. In fact, I'd prefer the Reds do that now and then bring him up in September, but they won't. I don't think Chapman will be ready to start for the Reds next year, but I would let him work in AAA. If he was ready by the end of the year, then I maybe look to move Arroyo in the offseason. If Chapman is not ready, then maybe you look to move Arroyo to a team that he would be agreeable to.
I agree with everything but this: If they turn Chapman into a starter, baring a disastrous 2012 spring training, he will begin the season in the Reds rotation. Converting Chappy back to a starter won't take a season to do. They can leave him in the bullpen for the rest of this season (which I think they'll do) and then turn him back into a starter during the off-season and during spring training.
He needs to build arm strong up though. He's a young kid. And he needs more than an inning here or there. He needs to throw 5-6 innings each time out in my opinion. I'd rather see him spend the rest of this season in the rotation and then evaluate him from there.
It's been less than a year since he's started. What they can do is let him go play fall ball. Rather it be the Dominican, Venezuelan, or hell even the Arizona Fall League, to stretch him out. Obviously, it's not ideal. However, it's not like he's never been a starter. He's been a starter for a majority of his career, so it won't be as big of a transition as it seems.
If the Reds acquire the Orioles' Guthrie ahead of this summer's trade deadline, then I'd agree that they might be looking to deal Arroyo in the off-season and apply some of the savings elsewhere. Not that Guthrie and Arroyo are identical pitchers in every respect, but Guthrie could be expected to fulfill many of the same needs as Arroyo handles:
1. Can consistently pitch 200-plus innings a season without significant downtime.
2. Doesn't overpower batters but usually works 6-plus innings a game without imploding.
3. Supplies a veteran presence for a young rotation.
4. Good control, baseball smarts, a gamer and a nice mix of pitches.
One advantage of having Guthrie over Arroyo: He probably would command a 2012 salary in the $7-$9 million range, instead of the $12 million slated for Arroyo, so the team could reapply those funds for a LF, a SS or settling on a new contract with Phillips.
The new rotation would become:
Cueto
Guthrie
Bailey
Leake
Volquez, Wood or Chapman
I suspect one of Volquez, Wood or Chapman would be gone -- part of the price of acquiring Guthrie -- but maybe not. It's possible the O's would settle for a different package involving primo prospects like Alonso and/or Grandal.
Arroyo isn't getting traded. At that point, his deferred money would become a salary bonus of about $14MM. He practically has a no-trade clause, which he's going to have within a year anyway.
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You're probably right. I'd forgotten how much of Arroyo's 2011-2013 base salary is deferred, and about the clause stipulating that the deferred amount must be paid in full upfront if he is traded. Here's how it was reported by Ken Rosenthal last December and aggregated by MLB Trade Rumors.com:
"Rosenthal of FOX Sports provides the details of Bronson Arroyo's new contract. The righty will earn $6.5MM in 2011, $7MM in 2012, and then $18MM in 2013. All but $3MM of that 2013 salary is deferred, though it all has to be paid up front if he's traded."
In the old days the Reds would account for the deferred money in years 2011 and 2012 and then in 2013 it would be rumored that they didn't have any money to make trades because of the $18 milllion owed to Arroyo.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
Arroyo was great tonight. Really stepped up, pitched to the score, and showed that he knows how to win.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Rotations are hard to call long term. With so much dependent on the variables of health and proper mechanics, starting pitchers are frequently inconsistent from year to year...just my two cents.
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