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Thread: Phipps -- say what?

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't doubt he's improved. But he has a .430 BABIP. That is massively unsustainable regardless of how good a hitter he is right now. I may have said organization, but I might have well as said the universe. Looking at true talent, what we can reasonable expect from a guy moving forward, the highest BABIP in the majors over the last 3 years (1500 PA) is Votto at .366. Only 3 other guys are at .350+.

    Even if he's suddenly a world-class line drive hitter like Votto, Wright, Upton, Choo, and Bruan (the highest BABIP guys who aren't doing it with speed), he's still 70+ points above sustainable. If he's merely a very good major league hitter, he's 100+ above sustainable. And if he's average, he's 130 points above it. And that's more than 25% of his hits which will go away when he regresses.

    So again, yeah, it looks like he's improved. But he's playing way over his head and there is no denying that.
    If you are right, and I think you mostly are, that would put his adjusted OPS at about .740 based on some rough math. That's a pretty different picture thst mskes his 2011 look a lot like his 2010 including a roughly .315 OBP and a roughly .425 SLG.

    I wonder if he's been in demand on the trade market. Seems like a sell high candidate to me. A different GM might take advantage of that. Of course in Cincy not much will happen.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #32
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't doubt he's improved. But he has a .430 BABIP. That is massively unsustainable regardless of how good a hitter he is right now. I may have said organization, but I might have well as said the universe. Looking at true talent, what we can reasonable expect from a guy moving forward, the highest BABIP in the majors over the last 3 years (1500 PA) is Votto at .366. Only 3 other guys are at .350+.

    Even if he's suddenly a world-class line drive hitter like Votto, Wright, Upton, Choo, and Bruan (the highest BABIP guys who aren't doing it with speed), he's still 70+ points above sustainable. If he's merely a very good major league hitter, he's 100+ above sustainable. And if he's average, he's 130 points above it. And that's more than 25% of his hits which will go away when he regresses.

    So again, yeah, it looks like he's improved. But he's playing way over his head and there is no denying that.
    I don't think anybody is saying that he has suddenly become a .370 hitter, or a .350 hitter, or even a .320 hitter. My contentions were based on your original statement: "Same guy, flukish results."

    I simply have a hard time denying the possibility that something has clicked in this guy, that he's a different player than he was last year when he was hitting .228 in Carolina. Since you're now saying, "I don't doubt he's improved," it appears that we're getting pretty close to the same page.

  4. #33
    Member muddie's Avatar
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Far be it from me to suggest that it may be as simple as the guy finally found confidence in his abilities and got comfortable at the plate. I have stated prior, I know he was spending additional time with Ryan Jackson in Carolina at one point to improve his plate appearances. Maybe Jackson suggested a little something that made the difference, be it through mechanics or a change to the mental approach.

    You would think some 'ace' reporter would have posed this question to him by now. I haven't seen such an interview.

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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Far be it from me to suggest that it may be as simple as the guy finally found confidence in his abilities and got comfortable at the plate.
    Muddie, did Phipps stand out to you as a hitter this year? I know you've seen him a lot.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #35
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Muddie, did Phipps stand out to you as a hitter this year? I know you've seen him a lot.

    Overall, no. I was not a fan at all after a few weeks into the season and made more than my fair share of comments about his inabiltiy to get it done at the plate. He nor Perez could hold down a leadoff spot to save their lives and the natural train of thought was that these two guys should be a part of the top of the lineup.

    When Phipps started hitting it was like somebody just hit a switch. I would love for him to speak on the overnight change in his success. What happened? Can he put a finger on it? I was concerned that he would have some issues moving to AAA but I am very happy to see that he hasn't missed a beat.

  7. #36
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Quote Originally Posted by muddie View Post
    Overall, no. I was not a fan at all after a few weeks into the season and made more than my fair share of comments about his inabiltiy to get it done at the plate. He nor Perez could hold down a leadoff spot to save their lives and the natural train of thought was that these two guys should be a part of the top of the lineup.

    When Phipps started hitting it was like somebody just hit a switch. I would love for him to speak on the overnight change in his success. What happened? Can he put a finger on it? I was concerned that he would have some issues moving to AAA but I am very happy to see that he hasn't missed a beat.
    If you read this thread, I'm sure you'll realize that there are people who would guarantee that Phipps is now using steroids: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=91336

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Quote Originally Posted by muddie View Post
    Far be it from me to suggest that it may be as simple as the guy finally found confidence in his abilities and got comfortable at the plate. I have stated prior, I know he was spending additional time with Ryan Jackson in Carolina at one point to improve his plate appearances. Maybe Jackson suggested a little something that made the difference, be it through mechanics or a change to the mental approach.

    You would think some 'ace' reporter would have posed this question to him by now. I haven't seen such an interview.
    I think it's about time we start singing the praises of Ryan Jackson. I believe he is the same guy responsible for helping Chris Heisey and Dave Sappelt as well. Dude knows what he is doing in the hitting/teaching arena.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  9. #38
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    I'm far from being a slave to the numbers and take a lot of things that the stats may tell us with a grain of salt. I certainly think that hitters have some control over their BABIP, but in Phipps case, the BABIP is just way to influential in his results and too far above what should be expected going forward. Phipps has K'd over 100 times while walking less than 35. He only has 12 HR. His numbers aren't being driven by great on base skills (evidence the low walks versus the number K's) or prodigious power. That .900+ OPS is being driven mostly from his high batting average. With the relatively large number of K's, that average just doesn't seem sustainable. As Rick noted, if his BABIP were normal at around .300, he'd lose 25% of those hits and it would drop his OPS into the low to mid 700s (in line with his 2010). If Phipps actually is capable of an unusually high BABIP (say .330), he'd still be hovering right around .800. Not bad, but as corner OF go, nothing special. With his athleticism and power arm he can have a decent career as a role player with that profile. I just don't expect anything as a major leaguer remotely close to what his 2011 OPS might suggest. If some GM is enamored with him, its time to parlay him into something with a more solid foundation.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #39
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    In response to the thread in the ORG, Phipps didn't pick up baseball until his late teens because he had been a basketball player throughout the majority of his younger days.

    Or at least that's how I have heard the story told

  11. #40
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Phipps' numbers from the DR Winter League (regular season, round robin underway).

    AB H 2B 3B HR BB K SB .AVG OBP
    101 30 8 0 2 16 20 0 .297 .403

    Not bad, I'd say.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  12. #41
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruceFan View Post
    In response to the thread in the ORG, Phipps didn't pick up baseball until his late teens because he had been a basketball player throughout the majority of his younger days.

    Or at least that's how I have heard the story told
    Thank you. Very informative. I started the thread in the ORG and wondered if he might have played another sport exclusively growing up. Kids in other countries usually pick one sport and specialize in said sport if they play competitively. There aren't many countries like the USA where kids will competitively play 3 sports as a kid and all the way through high school.

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    Re: Phipps -- say what?

    No problem


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