Impending FA, Arbitration and Draft Pick Compensation

[bucksfan2]

I'm not sure Cordero would accept a 1-year $9.6MM deal. This could be his last chance to get a multiyear deal. By accepting arbitration, he'd be one year closer to 40 without a multiyear contract. If I were him, I'd seek a 2 or 3 year contract at $8 or $9MM per rather than go year-to-year at this point, especially after the season he's having so far this year. I think he's likely to get it, too.

I'd pick up Phillips' option for 2012 but let him walk afterwards unless he was willing to sign a 3 or 4 year deal at $11MM per. If he requires more than $11MM annually (which he likely will), I'd offer him arb, let him walk and take the picks.

I would not offer arb to Hermida or Lewis. Too many options for LF in AAA (unless one or more of those guys is traded at the deadline.) Jury is still out on Arredondo and Burton.

There is a big difference between the like of Phillips and Cordero. Cordero has shown to be a volatile closer during his tenure as a Red. Going forward you have to wonder if he will be able to land a closing job heading forward. I don't see a team paying him 10M/season over multiple seasons. Cordero really rolls the dice if he decides to run down arb and enter free agency. On a side note can a team buy a player out of his option and then offer him arb?

Phillis on the other hand is a guy who could demand a nice free agent contract when he enters FA. You pick up his option, try and sign him to an extension, all the while knowing that if he doesn't sign he will be a Type A FA. I don't see anything wrong with picking up his option for next season and then going from there.

[Benihana]

There is a big difference between the like of Phillips and Cordero.

I don't think anyone would disagree with you on that point.

Cordero has shown to be a volatile closer during his tenure as a Red. Going forward you have to wonder if he will be able to land a closing job heading forward. I don't see a team paying him 10M/season over multiple seasons. Cordero really rolls the dice if he decides to run down arb and enter free agency. On a side note can a team buy a player out of his option and then offer him arb?

I could easily see a team giving him a 2-3 year deal at 8 or 9 per, as I said. I think there are multiple teams that would do that.

Phillis on the other hand is a guy who could demand a nice free agent contract when he enters FA. You pick up his option, try and sign him to an extension, all the while knowing that if he doesn't sign he will be a Type A FA. I don't see anything wrong with picking up his option for next season and then going from there.

Agreed. No different than what I said. However, I don't think I'd pay him more than $11MM per, especially for more than 3 seasons.

[I(heart)Freel]

I could easily see a team giving him a 2-3 year deal at 8 or 9 per, as I said. I think there are multiple teams that would do that.

The question is, are there teams that would do that AND sacrifice their first round pick? Color me skeptical, in this draft-happy climate.

[RED VAN HOT]

I am unclear on the rules. Both Phillips and Cordero have club options for 2012. Can a club refuse to exercise the option, then offer arbitration?

I thought that Hernandez was the only real possibility for compensation. I suspect he would accept arbitration and get paid handsomely if his numbers continue to hold up. Where would that leave Mez?

[cinreds21]

Yes they can decline the club option and still offer arbitration.

[Brutus]

I am unclear on the rules. Both Phillips and Cordero have club options for 2012. Can a club refuse to exercise the option, then offer arbitration?

I thought that Hernandez was the only real possibility for compensation. I suspect he would accept arbitration and get paid handsomely if his numbers continue to hold up. Where would that leave Mez?

This subject came up last year on Ramon Hernandez, and it was determined that clubs can still offer arbitration on players who's club options were not picked up. Not only that, but they can still receive draft-pick compensation if arbitration is offered and then subsequently declined by the player.

[Benihana]

The question is, are there teams that would do that AND sacrifice their first round pick? Color me skeptical, in this draft-happy climate.

Well the Yankees just did it for Rafael Soriano, who's not even their closer...

Not to mention, if a team drafting in the Top 15 signed him, they wouldn't forfeit their first round pick.

[edabbs44]

There is zero chance we offer arbitation to Cordero.

And somewhere near 100% chance of him accepting.

[AtomicDumpling]

I would offer arbitration to Hernandez. I doubt he would accept it because he is likely to get a good multi-year contract on the open market what with all the good teams in dire need of good catchers. Even if he accepts arbitration the Reds should be able to get good trade value out of him or Hanigan if they want to create an opening for Mesoraco (which I assume they will).

I would not offer arbitration to Cordero because the risk is too great that he may accept it. I would like to have Cordero back next year but at a much lower salary. My guess is he will not be offered arbitration and he will sign a 3 year contract for about $25 million as a free agent, possibly with his former team the Rangers. I think they will put Neftali Feliz in their rotation next year.

It can be risky to offer arbitration to players you don't really want. It creates uncertainty and can put your budget plans at risk. If your goal is just to get the draft pick and therefore a keystone prospect, another option to consider instead is to use the money it would take to sign the draft pick and spend it on a top international free agent prospect or two. Those guys are a little riskier and take longer to develop because they are only 16 years old, but many of the best players in baseball were acquired that way.

[mth123]

With Raises already in place for Votto, Cueto, Bruce, etc., there is no way that Cordero is offered arb. Cordero coming off the books is the primary thing that the Reds have in place to offset those raises.

Picking up Phillips option is a no brainer with only a Rolen type extension possibly changing that.

Ramon is the tough choice, but Hanigan is signed and Mes is coming (maybe Grandal too). I wouldn't take the chance of him getting a $6 to $8 million arb award. He's having a good year and he could easily get that much in arb.

The inaction we are all complaining about is primarily budget driven. I see no reason to risk hanstringing that budget in an attempt to get the next Chris Valaika. The Reds need to free money to address specific needs and these players do not address them.

[REDREAD]

It's far too dangerous to offer arbitration to Cordero.
If the Red went to arb with him and offered the min 9.6 million/year, they will lose and end up paying him much more.
Cordero has been an expensive contract, but he's been solid other than last year.
He's putting together a great year.. The arbitrators won't care if it's based on BABIP or whatever.. they just know it's a great year.

I'm not even sure we could pay Cordero without lopping off another expensive player next year. IMO, he probably gets a raise in arb from what he is making now. Possibly gaining a draft pick is not worth being put in the situation where you need to shed 13 million or so in salary because the guy accepts unexpectedly.

Even if the Reds had 13 million to pay Cordero next year, why not spend that on a more pressing need? They can use Masset, Logan, or Chapman to close next year.

[Big Klu]

Wasn't it David Weathers to whom many of the folks here at RedsZone wanted to offer arbitration a few years ago so that the Reds could get the draft picks when he declined? Except that he didn't decline--he accepted the offer, and the same folks at RZ who wanted to offer him arb howled. Now don't misunderstand me--I liked David Weathers. He produced, as does Francisco Cordero. But you have to be careful when offering arbitration--the player just might take it.

[camisadelgolf]

Yup. People just assumed Weathers would decline because he was a reliever coming off a decent year, and it seemed like teams were handing out multi-year deals like candy to players like Weathers at the time.

[cinreds21]

Just an update. As of Tuesday evening, Hernandez is still a Type-A and Cordero is at the top of the relievers to be a Type-B free agent.

[Benihana]

Just an update. As of Tuesday evening, Hernandez is still a Type-A and Cordero is at the top of the relievers to be a Type-B free agent.

Would love to make a handshake deal with these guys to turn down arbitration- if they were Type Bs.

We could use the extra sandwich picks, as the draft seems to be the only way to bring talent into the organization these days.