I went with the Brewers...I hope I'm wrong though. The Reds front office doesn't seem to care about this year. It's been obvious for months now that shortstop is a huge black hole yet they continue to do nothing about it. They also had a subpar offseason while the Brewers went out and landed two top-of-rotation starters.
.....I would like to put off the question till the all-star break.
I know there are no "must win" series this early in the year, but it's getting late for it to be considered early in the year.
If they go into Busch and clean up and then take care of things with the brew crew, the year looks very different than if they go in flat and go 2-5 during that stretch.
"Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010
I'm sticking with what I started with. I think we win even without a trade. We're the one team that has yet to even make a small run. We'll get on a roll at some point and take over the top spot again.
Injuries, as usual, will impact the race...but we're the most able to deal with them effectively by FAR. That will also help our cause.
It's the close games that're killing them (the Reds). They're 11-16 in one run games. Does anyone know what their record is in two run games? I'd venture a guess that it's sub .500 as well. If that evens out in the 2nd half it'd be a big help
The Reds win those 50/50 games they win the division.Originally Posted by Sea Ray
I think it comes down to the Reds and Brewers with the Cards playing the spoiler. I think the Pirates will begin to fade shortly and the Cards are a poorly put together club that will continue to be devastated by injuries.
Beermakers. They are a better team than us this year. Not in all areas of course (our bullpen, defense and other things are better) but overall they are better IMO.
I like our future a lot better than theirs though. I don't think they'll be able to re-sign the Prince.
Who do you all think I picked? haha
I'm not sold on the Brewers right now. I have always felt that the winner of this division will be the team that plays the best on the road. Both the Reds and Cardinals have not had a great month of June yet are within striking distance because the Brewers are so incompetent on the road. Until they can prove they can be a winning ball club in that area, I can't pick them to win the division.
The Reds have the potential to run away with this division with a couple of moves but their management seems hesitant, for some reason, to make a move. They have potential upside in their pitching rotation so they could still take control of the division.
There are two things the Cardinals have that might put them at an advantage compared to the rest of the division once late July and early August hits. They will be getting players back from the crazy amount of injuries they have had to deal with. Getting Pujols back in the lineup at the end of July will be almost like a free agent move. Secondly, the Cardinals organization has shown in recent history that they aren't afraid to make a move. If the Cards make a move to solidify the bullpen with someone like Heath Bell, they become an even more dangerous team. There are already signs that they are trying to fix the issue by releasing people like Miguel Batista and giving young guys a chance to fill those roles.
If I were to choose right now, I would have to say the Reds but I would not sleep on the Cards at all. If the Reds do not make a move or don't show some level of consistency with their offense, I think the Cardinals take the division by the end of the year.
I still also think the Wild Card will come out of the NL Central this year so a second place finish might not be the worst thing in the world for any of the three teams.
If I were looking for reasons to pick the Cards, I wouldn't want to bank on Pujols being completely recovered as a hitter so soon after suffering a serious wrist injury. That's a big reason for my low expectations for them. I could see the other pieces of your scenario coming true, though.
Reading the different reports and opinions from doctors, Pujols broke his forearm in the right place (if there was such a thing). It wasn't like the Lee broken wrist. If anything, Pujols got lucky on that injury if that makes sense.
I'm holding off on voting. This team has played some really bad ball in spurts and I've got questions about them going forward, At the same time though, despite the way they've played, they are still only 3.5 behind the beer boys.
I'd like to see Uncle Walt make at least one major move to shore this team up before the interleague deadline. A TOR starter would be nice but don't know who it would be. The next best thing would be a middle of the order bat for leftfield who is a legitimate OFer. I'd also like to see them dip into the farm some (especially Cozart).
I'll save my actual prediction until after the deadline though.
Do you forecast the weather on any of our local TV stations?
I'm starting to think this isn't the Reds' year. I think they used up all their good luck last year.
They seem to have this knack of playing a good, hard-fought game but lose it. I don't think winning one-run games is luck and the odds will even out. I think its like chess and you have an end-game and the Reds don't seem to have a lock-down end-game, be it offense, defense, bullpen, or getting in a hole from a starter. They all seem to take turns.
She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning
I voted for the Brewers by default.
I think the Cards have had too many injuries and the jury is out on how well Pujols comes back.
The Pirates just won't have enough to pull it off. I think their pitching will fade down the stretch and their hitting isn't anything to write home about.
The Reds just can't seem to string together many wins. They can't get that big hit or big out when they need it the most to get a good winning streak going. If they can find "it" again they can pull off another division win but I don't know if they will find "it".
The Brewers have the hitting,starting pitching and the bullpen has been better than expected. If they can win a few on the road they may just run away with the divison. But I'm not sure they will magically turn that around. They also have seemingly built this season for a run at the title. So this may be their one season of opportunity. It will go down to the last week but I think this may just be the Brewers year.
Reds Fan Since 1971
I went with the Reds. I think they still have a nice run in them. Maybe they'll wait until September, go crazy, then roll through the playoffs, a la the 2010 Giants. Eventhough this season is driving me mad so far, I could live with that.
Oh, and thanks all, for voting me into the Old Red Guard.
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how 2010 was a lucky year for the Reds.
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