If you watch baseball, you understand that much is left to chance.Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp
Otherwise, the best team would never lose.
If you watch baseball, you understand that much is left to chance.
Otherwise, the best team would never lose.
Probably the only game I agree with this right now. Great pitching matchup, and they really did get a lucky hit that scored two on an unlucky bounce.
I'm not grasping for anything. I dismiss the convenient notion that everything good happens is because of talent and then when things inevitably don't go as hoped/expected, it's just a product of bad luck. It's not practical.
I'm neither suggesting luck doesn't play a part nor games like this don't happen. But I think people are so set in their position there's absolutely nothing wrong with the offense, that now it's a moral victory to score 3 runs in a game against a good pitcher, and a loss is just bad luck.
3 runs in a game wins only about 4 out of 10 games. You know that going in that if you score 2-3 runs, it very well might not be enough. There were no illusions. If you go into any game knowing you'll have just 2 runs through 8 innings, you expect you're probably going to lose. So regardless of how the game went, three runs isn't getting it done. The circumstances are understandable--Price is a terrific pitcher. But it's still not enough and when it's not, it's on the people that didn't get it done and not some dumb luck.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
If you watch baseball, or rather played it, you know there are a lot of things that happen in the course of a game that you do wrong that could have been done properly. Those mistakes are accountable to the people that make them more than random chance.
Despite your tendency to label everything regression or luck, a lot more of it is a product of the actual players on the field than not.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I agree with much of what you say. But over a 162, you're gonna have to find a way to win some games when you only score 1-3 runs. The Reds aren't doing that right now.
"In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
-Walt Whitman
Brutus, I can only hope this comes from frustration. This certainly isn't a basic, fundamental understanding of how MLB works.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Sure it is. And I could argue that it's easier to pass off a loss as "bad luck" out of frustration than to cope with the fact a favorite team simply isn't playing well.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I absolutely agree with this. That's kind of the overall sentiment I have... there are games like these that happen and you have to find ways to win them. The Reds didn't do it. That has to be on them somewhat--more than just passing it off to bad luck.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
But now you're changing the argument, and it still is a very, very, very, very reductionist way to understand "winning a baseball game." I think I need a drink.
Last edited by traderumor; 06-28-2011 at 10:26 PM.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
I think it's a combination of both. A bloop hit, some missed chances, a terrible pitch in the 9th to give up the walk-off.
A combination of bad luck and not getting it done.
"In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
-Walt Whitman
I'm not changing any argument. Games like these happen, and the Reds didn't find a way to win them. How is that changing my argument?But now you're changing the argument, and it still is a very, very, very, very reductionist way to understand "winning a baseball game." I think I need a drink.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
But, before I get hammered (just kidding), what happens if both teams "find ways to win them" in the same game? I'm really starting to feel like your arguing to be consistent more than you really believe that the game works this way.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Yeah I said earlier I think luck plays into it. That's never been a contention of mine. I just think there are enough things that happen in a baseball game that are under your control to do better that it's shifting blame to pass off as luck.
Price is good, but he had a better game against the Reds today than his season averages. So they didn't really scratch and claw much because they did less against him than a lot of teams have done. So I think that is an indication that they could have (and probably should have) done more.
I'm not totally dismissing the element of bad luck. But I don't believe in luck being the overriding factor in these games or any game for that matter. You go out and play on any given night, usually the team that makes fewer mistakes will win the game. Sometimes it's a tossup and comes down to a bounce here or there. But that's all the more reason to maximize your opportunities.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
They are averages. To compare a game's results to the average and make conclusions about how a team fared on any given night is ludicrous. And I've read the detail in your posts. You know better.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Maybe in games like "this", the better team might win.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
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