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Thread: Cardinals discussion thread

  1. #16
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Mike you are right about Bell. The Cards have been linked to him. Lets say the Cards get Bell. Then they go out & get a SS (and move Theriot to 2B). suddenly its a whole new race. I would bet the odds of something like this happening as better than the Reds going out & fixing their holes.
    Theriot is an enigma in my opinion. I have lived with his defense because he has been a very good lead off hitter for the Cards this season. We haven't had a lead off hitter this consistent in years. That said, I don't know if moving him to second would be the answer. He hasn't proven to be competent playing defense at 2nd in his career. I think it is a situation where the Cards will just have to live with his defense at SS for the rest of the season.

    Again I have to ask you "You do understand this is a Reds board". You continually seem confused when no one shows the Cards much love.
    That doesn't mean there can't be logical discussion on the issues. You may hate the Cards but analysis such as "oh they are just regressing to the means" isn't exactly the most thought out thought process I have seen. Brutus does an excellent job of detailing why he thinks the Cards won't last. The whole analysis of "regressing to the means" that you constantly bring up is frankly weak. For example, in one of McClellans starts it was commented on as the regression to the means argument. It was a rather lazy analysis because in that start, McClellan came back from the DL and made some minor adjustments to his wind-up. There are very few pitchers who are sharp coming back from the DL esp. if they are figuring out a new delivery to the plate. Yeah you can criticize the Cards all you want. I have no problem with it and expect it on a Reds board. However if you are going to do it at least bring something of substance to the plate.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

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  3. #17
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    I challenge someone to knock the Cards in a post without Mike knowing about it or replying to it.

  4. #18
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    That doesn't mean there can't be logical discussion on the issues. You may hate the Cards but analysis such as "oh they are just regressing to the means" isn't exactly the most thought out thought process I have seen. Brutus does an excellent job of detailing why he thinks the Cards won't last. The whole analysis of "regressing to the means" that you constantly bring up is frankly weak. For example, in one of McClellans starts it was commented on as the regression to the means argument. It was a rather lazy analysis because in that start, McClellan came back from the DL and made some minor adjustments to his wind-up. There are very few pitchers who are sharp coming back from the DL esp. if they are figuring out a new delivery to the plate. Yeah you can criticize the Cards all you want. I have no problem with it and expect it on a Reds board. However if you are going to do it at least bring something of substance to the plate.
    It's well known that Carpenter has been pitching beter than his results and McClennan has been pitching much worse than his results. Based on things like xFIP.

    So McClennan starting to pitch poorly or Carpenter having good results is exactly that; expected as they find their to their norms.

    For posters who understand saberstats, that's actually fairly detailed. It's consistent with what I've been saying for awhile, so it's not a surprise that rhey are going in opposite directions. I said the same thing before Salas started giving up HR's every game.

  5. #19
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    It's well known that Carpenter has been pitching beter than his results and McClennan has been pitching much worse than his results. Based on things like xFIP.

    So McClennan starting to pitch poorly or Carpenter having good results is exactly that; expected as they find their to their norms.

    For posters who understand saberstats, that's actually fairly detailed. It's consistent with what I've been saying for awhile, so it's not a surprise that rhey are going in opposite directions. I said the same thing before Salas started giving up HR's every game.
    Look, I understand saberstats. I just don't agree with some of the premises of those stats. Now when it comes to defense, I will take saberstats over traditional stats every day of the week and twice on Sunday. The Dewan +/- system, UZR, etc just tell give you a better outlook on defense than some random scorekeeper does. Even with such advanced stats like wOBA and BABIP I don't have much of a problem. The two stats in which I feel are a bit questionable though are FIP and WAR. Both stats I feel don't accurately measure the worth of a given player. I feel they can be useful tools just like batting average or OBP can be a useful tool but shouldn't be the end all in a conversation. Just because a pitcher has a high FIP and a low ERA doesn't mean he is a worthless pitcher or will regress to some sort of mean. There are plenty of examples where the FIP and ERA do not match up but at the end of the year a pitcher will have an excellent year. It just isn't or shouldn't be a rule, like many here are making it out to be, that if a pitcher has a low ERA and a higher FIP that he will somehow not have a great year in the end.

    By the way, Salas has given up 3 HR in 36 innings pitched. In retrospect, Cordero has given up 3 in 35.1 innings pitched, Hudson Street has given up 7 HR in 38 innings pitched, Fransisco Rodriguez has given up 3 HR in 37.2 innings pitch, etc. By no means am I comparing Salas to those closers. The point is though that closers will give up some home runs. Salas is still very young and is closing for the first time. The ability is there but there will be some bumps along the way. Thus far though he has been a stabilizing pitcher in the back of the bullpen. He also certainly isn't giving up a home run every game like you are describing.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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  6. #20
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Albert Pujols improves: likely to return early.

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colum...dbac722c3.html

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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds/Flyers Fan View Post
    I'd be happy with getting outscored 49-2 in any three game series, as long as my team wins a pair. I'm sure the O's and their fans feel the same way about the series and the Reds' 10-run outburst on Saturday.
    I wasn't referring to the point that we lost 2 out of 3. If you had said the Reds lost 2 out of 3 I'd be Ok with that as it was the truth.

    But you said we "got lit up like a Christmas tree".

    That implies that we were outscored badly, when it was us that outscored them.

  8. #22
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Look, I understand saberstats.

    By the way, Salas has given up 3 HR in 36 innings pitched.
    Then you missed my point.

    A little while ago, Salas had given uo zero HR's.

    I mentioned previously that Salas was giving up sufficient FB's to suggest he should be giving up a reasonable number of HR's.

    He then gave up 3 very quickly, suggesting he was simply regressing to the norm.

    That's what saberstats told me.

    I never said he would give up a inordinate amount of HR's, just that he would regress to the norm. Which he did.

    Much like "clutch and late" hasn't been very clutch either late or anytime else these days.

    Since I believe "clutch" is not a repeatable skill, and especially not with a AAAA player like Daniel, I'd suggest that he's simply a victim of regressing to his norm in terms of cluth hits.

    He has over 200 PA's of .666 OPS.

    Guys like Descalso can he OK if their AB's are very limited.

    Now, lets discuss Berkman. I can't believe he's still hitting, but he keeps doing it, even against LH pitching. So, do you give him an extension? How much and how many years. How far would you go?

  9. #23
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Now, lets discuss Berkman. I can't believe he's still hitting, but he keeps doing it, even against LH pitching. So, do you give him an extension? How much and how many years. How far would you go?
    I think it depends on if Pujols re-signs. If he doesn't it makes him pretty valuable to the Cards. Maybe 4 years, $12M per. If Pujols does re-sign, he's less valuable to them but he has shown he does well in the OF. If Pujols re-signs, maybe 2 years, $10M per with a club option for a 3rd year.
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  10. #24
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I think it depends on if Pujols re-signs. If he doesn't it makes him pretty valuable to the Cards. Maybe 4 years, $12M per. If Pujols does re-sign, he's less valuable to them but he has shown he does well in the OF. If Pujols re-signs, maybe 2 years, $10M per with a club option for a 3rd year.

    4 years is a long time for someone who will be 40 when that contract ends.

    I doubt he gets more than 2 years from anyone.

    But who knows.

    I agree the Cards might panic if Pujols doesn't re-sign and jump at him.

  11. #25
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Albert Pujols improves: likely to return early.

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colum...dbac722c3.html
    Ugh. Is Mike Thierry and Bernie the same person? I don't know that I've seen a bigger homer piece than that in quite some time. Bernie needs to be in Cards marketing.

    Super human healing by Albert? Hmmmmmmmm
    Can't win with 'em

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  12. #26
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Ugh. Is Mike Thierry and Bernie the same person? I don't know that I've seen a bigger homer piece than that in quite some time. Bernie needs to be in Cards marketing.

    Super human healing by Albert? Hmmmmmmmm

    No kidding. Did they take him to the same doctor as Colon or does Tony still has his magic juices in storage?

  13. #27
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    I'll go ahead and say it:

    When Pujols comes back (today?), the Cards defense worsens and the Reds could win games entirely by the glove.

    Take last night: Berkman does NOT rob Bruce's homer and Berkman does not make get to Renteria's drive that would've scored Ramon from second.

    Sure, Pujols' bat could make up for those runs. I'll concede that. God knows the man has does it in the past. (Having said that, I can't find any Cueto vs. Pujols breakdown. He went 0-fer against him earlier this year, and baseball-reference.com doesn't have a split.)

    Still, it bums me out when a "healthy" Cards' lineup gives up more runs than its Plan B.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  14. #28
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    Pujols has been reinstated but is not in the lineup. He is apparently available off the bench.
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...s_mlb&c_id=mlb

    Pujols will not be in the lineup but presumably will be available to pinch-hit when the Cardinals play host to the Reds at Busch Stadium at 6:09 p.m. CT. Left-handed reliever Brian Tallet, who has a right intercostal strain, was placed on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to Monday, to make room for Pujols.

  15. #29
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    It's a sad state of affairs when the Cardinals can actually add to their lead over the Reds with Albert Pujols out of their lineup for 15 days.

    As much as it pains me I have to tip my cap to the Cards and hang my head wondering just what in the hell is wrong with the Reds.


  16. #30
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Cardinals discussion thread

    I'm not trying to bring my personal issues into the Red Zone but it is so good to be back in the forum. I have spent a week in the hospital due to Crohn's disease issues and it is good to have some sort of normalcy back, debating baseball topics. There are too many issues that were covered this week on the forum to catch up on and respond to though so all I'm going to say is great to be back (much to the chagrin of some of the Reds fans here ) in the Red Zone. I wish the Reds and their Fans good luck the rest of the season and I really hope it will be a good NL Central fight down the road.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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